In this week's episode, our experts discuss the state of the economy, markets, and investment outlook for the second half of 2025.

Speakers:
Brian Pietrangelo, Managing Director of Investment Strategy

George Mateyo, Chief Investment Officer
Rajeev Sharma, Managing Director of Fixed Income
Stephen Hoedt, Head of Equities

01:36 - Recap of employment data which shows stability with positive revisions and declining unemployment claims.

03:54 - Discussion about renewed tariff threats (up to 200%) and their potential to slow growth and raise inflation. The team highlights the impact of the “One Big Beautiful Bill” on deficits and long-term interest rates.

08:48 - Reflection on a volatile first half of 2025 and anticipates modest gains through August. Forecast of potential market “indigestion” in September–October due to valuation concerns

14:33 - Prediction of two rate cuts in 2025, likely starting in September. The team emphasizes uncertainty around tariffs and inflation, and recommends high-quality corporate bonds over Treasuries.

Additional Resources

Key Questions: What Is in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and How Does It Compare to Current Law? | Key Private Bank

Books and Podcasts for Your 2025 Summer Reading and Listening

Key Questions | Key Private Bank
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