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  • THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME | Thursday Margin Monitor | September 24, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME | Thursday Margin Monitor | September 24, 2026
    2026/09/24

    HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Thursday Margin Monitor, September twenty-fourth. From The Sparks Group.

    SHAWN: Everybody has an answer for making beef cheaper. I’m just not convinced everybody understands what it takes to put it on the dinner plate — especially in Washington. And hell, if that isn’t enough, I paid six forty-nine a gallon for diesel yesterday here in Oklahoma. Everybody wants affordable beef. Before Washington starts telling everybody how to make it cheaper, maybe we ought to appreciate what it takes to put it on the damn plate.

    HOST: Southwest Kansas processing is under workforce uncertainty. USDA Wednesday cattle slaughter ninety-four thousand. Year-to-date down seven point six percent. How much of that is immigration enforcement is still unverified.

    SHAWN: Sterling has feedlots at minus three twenty-four and packers at plus one thirty-nine. Domestic fresh nineties four ten FOB plant. Platts imported nineties three nineteen CIF East Coast. Ninety-one cents of quoted spread — not ninety-one cents of delivered savings. Hogs and Pigs is two p.m. Central. Pre-report near ninety-nine percent of year-ago. The BEEF Act would put Congress back over the three-hundred-thousand-ton window. It is not law.

    HOST: All six pork primals lower. Chicken slaughter up one point one percent year-to-date. Crude ninety-two. Distillate inventories down twelve point seven percent.

    SHAWN: The decisions still come down to supply, specification, delivered cost, and timing. Stay disciplined.

    HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

    SHAWN: Stay disciplined.
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    2 分
  • THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME | Thursday Margin Monitor | September 24, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME | Thursday Margin Monitor | September 24, 2026
    2026/09/24
    HOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Thursday Margin Monitor for September 24, 2026, from The Sparks Group.SHAWN: Everybody has an answer for making beef cheaper. I’m just not convinced everybody understands what it takes to put it on the dinner plate — especially in Washington. Until you’ve shoveled inedible byproducts beneath a slaughter floor in a hundred-degree-plus heat just to keep the line running, or spent ten hours inventorying meat in a minus-ten-degree blast freezer while it’s over a hundred outside in West Texas, you don’t really understand the work behind putting meat on America’s dinner tables. You don’t forget those days. Now immigration enforcement is raising workforce concerns in southwest Kansas. Congress is debating beef imports while domestic fresh ninety C L sits ninety-one cents above imported lean. USDA is working to rebuild the cattle herd while suggesting consumers consider other proteins when beef gets expensive. And hell, if that isn’t enough, I paid six forty-nine a gallon for diesel yesterday here in Oklahoma. At this rate, I’m going to need a second mortgage just to fill up the truck. Everybody wants affordable beef. But before Washington starts telling everybody how to make it cheaper, maybe we ought to appreciate what it takes to put it on the damn plate.HOST: Immigration enforcement raises workforce concerns across southwest Kansas beef processing as cattle slaughter remains down seven point six percent year-to-date. Feedlot losses deepen while packers maintain positive estimated margins. Congress enters the beef import debate with domestic fresh nineties priced ninety-one cents above imported lean. Diesel costs, Black Sea grain disruptions, and major protein investments in Southeast Asia add to an already busy week.SHAWN: KMUW reported Thursday morning that New Frontiers, a southwest Kansas civic organization, alleged ice agents entered National Beef’s Dodge City facility Wednesday and removed employees from the production line. NPR’s Midwest Newsroom could not independently confirm that account. National Beef’s Liberal operation separately altered employee starting times. A Cargill employee in Dodge City described coworkers not reporting to work. Reuters reported traders linking some reduced slaughter to employees staying home. The amount of production lost specifically because of immigration enforcement remains unverified.HOST: USDA estimated Wednesday’s cattle slaughter at ninety-four thousand, versus one hundred two thousand the previous Wednesday and one hundred twenty-one thousand nine hundred fourteen a year ago. Week-to-date two hundred ninety-nine thousand against three hundred fifty-one thousand one hundred nine last year. Year-to-date down seven point six percent. Those numbers establish the reduction in processing, but not its precise cause. Cargill’s Fort Morgan facility is recovering gradually. Steiner cited media reports placing operations at about twenty-five percent of expected capacity. Fed cattle slaughter totaled four hundred twenty-four thousand last week, down five point seven percent year over year. Steiner projects about four hundred sixteen thousand this week.SHAWN: Sterling estimates feedlot losses widened to three twenty-three sixty-eight a head, versus three oh seven nineteen the previous week and a profit of six twenty-three eighty-two in the comparable week last year. Packer margins remained positive at one thirty-eight eighty, down from one seventy-seven sixteen. Cattle marketed last week carried an estimated two forty-five breakeven against an average Choice steer of two twenty-one eighty-eight. Hales estimates packer margins one twenty-five to one fifty. Steiner reports improved processing economics since early August through higher comprehensive beef values, lower cattle acquisition costs, and about twenty dollars a head more in byproduct value. These are modeled industry estimates, not individual packer financial results.HOST: Choice closed three seventy-seven, down a cent fifty-eight. Select three fifty-two, down five fifty-one. Spread twenty-five cents. Choice deckle-off briskets averaged four twenty-nine. Kansas City barbecue operators continue reporting elevated beef costs. Hales places the current Choice brisket assessment about six cents below its comparable year-earlier level. A single wholesale cut does not represent a restaurant’s entire beef purchasing and operating costs.SHAWN: Chicken. Wednesday slaughter thirty-four point nine five eight million birds. Year-to-date about seven point oh three four billion, up one point one percent. Nielsen I Q data reported by Meat and Poultry show turkey reaching eighty-seven percent of U.S. households. Ground turkey generated two point one billion in retail sales, up seven point seven percent, while volume declined one point seven. Higher dollar sales do not necessarily represent increased ...
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    8 分
  • THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME | Wednesday Watchlist | September 23, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME | Wednesday Watchlist | September 23, 2026
    2026/09/23
    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIMEWednesday Watchlist | September 23, 2026

    HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Wednesday Watchlist, September twenty-third. From The Sparks Group.

    SHAWN: Know your market. Know your external risks. And make sure your meat isn’t paying somebody else’s bills. August placements fell nine point two percent to the lowest August on record — one point six one seven million head. On-feed still up seven-tenths. Year-to-date slaughter down seven point five percent, about one point six million fewer cattle. Heavier carcasses and higher Choice grading are offsetting some of the missing head, not all of it.

    HOST: Santa Teresa is scheduled to reopen Thursday. Historically about forty-three percent of Mexican cattle imports. That helps feeders. It does not immediately restore finished cattle.

    SHAWN: Sterling has packers at plus one thirty-nine and feedlots at minus three twenty-four. Imported nineties three nineteen C I F Philadelphia versus domestic four twenty. That’s about a dollar of gross spread — not a dollar of delivered savings. New Zealand is heading into its seasonal low. China is taking October production. S and P has about twenty-two thousand tons cleared under the September tranche. The window closes the thirtieth.

    HOST: Hogs and Pigs Thursday. Breeding herd expected down seven-tenths. Current packer margin is thirteen cents underwater. Turkey: more than six hundred thousand birds affected in five weeks. Crude down. Diesel up. Don’t assume cheaper freight.

    SHAWN: The opportunity isn’t the lowest quote. It’s whether that value survives the trip to your customer’s dock. Stay disciplined.

    HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

    SHAWN: Stay disciplined.
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    2 分
  • THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST | Wednesday Watchlist | September 23, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST | Wednesday Watchlist | September 23, 2026
    2026/09/23
    THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCASTWednesday Watchlist | September 23, 2026Your daily market update on all things proteinHOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Wednesday Watchlist for September 23, 2026, from The Sparks Group.SHAWN: You know the protein business is getting interesting when a truckload of frozen chicken becomes currency. According to reports out of Memphis, a driver allegedly offered one hundred ten thousand dollars’ worth of Koch Foods chicken to settle a drug debt. Twelve arrests later, the load was recovered. Somewhere, a freight broker is having a very bad week. We’ve got diesel prices pushing toward record territory, August cattle placements at their lowest August level on record, and hog inventories potentially tightening into twenty twenty-seven. Apparently, we can add poultry to the list of accepted currencies. I’ve spent plenty of time negotiating pennies per pound, watching diesel prices, and trying to squeeze another nickel out of freight. Never occurred to me that someone might be negotiating a chicken-for-cocaine exchange rate. Know your market. Know your external risks. And make sure your meat isn’t paying somebody else’s bills.HOST: August cattle placements fell nine point two percent to their lowest August level on record as Santa Teresa prepares to reopen Thursday. Sterling shows beef packers profitable while feedlots lose three hundred twenty-four a head. Pork producers remain profitable while packers operate near breakeven. Imported lean offers a substantial discount to domestic supply, although Asian demand raises questions about forward availability. Bird flu threatens turkey production. Thursday’s hog inventory report approaches. Elevated diesel complicates delivered protein economics.SHAWN: USDA placements totaled one point six one seven million head, down nine point two percent from last year, versus a pre-report expectation of a two point seven percent decline. Lowest August placement total on record — not the lowest total for any month. September first inventories eleven point one six three million, just seven-tenths above twenty twenty-five. The year-over-year inventory surplus has narrowed from about two hundred thirty-nine thousand head on June first to eighty-three thousand. Year-to-date cattle slaughter nineteen point seven three two million through September twenty-second, down seven point five percent — about one point six million fewer cattle than the comparable twenty twenty-five period.HOST: Fewer cattle do not translate into an equivalent reduction in beef pounds. Hales reports fed carcass weights nine hundred fifty-four pounds, up twenty-four from last year. Beef-type cattle grading Choice or higher reached eighty-eight percent, five points above twenty twenty-five. Heavier carcasses are partially offsetting reduced slaughter. Higher grading changes the composition of available beef. Cattle numbers, total beef pounds, and the availability of specific grades and manufacturing inputs are three different considerations.SHAWN: Santa Teresa is scheduled to reopen September twenty-fourth. Historically that crossing handled about forty-three percent of the one point two five million cattle imported annually from Mexico — roughly five hundred thirty-seven thousand five hundred head on an annualized basis. The reopening remains scheduled despite confirmation of New World screwworm in a horse in Grant County, New Mexico. Actual crossing volumes, inspection requirements, Mexican feeder availability, and finish time will determine the commercial impact. Reopening the crossing could improve feeder availability. It will not immediately restore finished-cattle supplies.HOST: Sterling estimates unhedged feedlot losses deepened to three twenty-three sixty-eight a head in the week ending September nineteenth, versus three oh seven nineteen the prior week. Packer margins remained positive at one thirty-eight eighty, down from one seventy-seven sixteen. Cow-calf twenty twenty-six annual projection plus one thousand four a cow. Cattle marketed last week carried an estimated breakeven of two forty-five, versus two thirty-five oh nine for new placements. Sterling still projects an annual beef packing loss of one fifty-three seventy-five a head for twenty twenty-six.SHAWN: Imported lean remains a meaningful alternative. Platts tradable C I F Philadelphia indications for October–November Australian and New Zealand shipments: ninety-five C L three forty-nine. Nineties three nineteen. Eighty-fives three oh four. Against the last established domestic fresh nineties of four nineteen eighty-three, imported nineties at three nineteen C I F is a gross differential of about a dollar one. That is not a directly executable dollar-one saving. Product condition, shipment timing, duties, inland freight, handling, and financing have to go into delivered blend economics.HOST: Forward availability deserves attention....
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    9 分
  • THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME - Taco Meat Tuesday | September 22, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME - Taco Meat Tuesday | September 22, 2026
    2026/09/22
    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIMETaco Meat Tuesday | September 22, 2026

    HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Taco Meat Tuesday, September twenty-second. From The Sparks Group.

    SHAWN: We’ve gotten pretty good at producing protein. The question is whether we’ve gotten as good at giving consumers what they actually want. Consumers aren’t buying feed conversion. They’re buying dinner. The next opportunity isn’t necessarily more pounds. It’s making the pounds we produce worth more.

    HOST: August placements down nine point two percent. On-feed still up seven-tenths. Cattle on feed one hundred fifty days or longer up eighteen point three percent.

    SHAWN: More pounds from cattle already in the system. Fewer replacements entering it. Packer margins seventy-five to one hundred fifty a head. Last week’s slaughter five hundred twenty-nine thousand. Southern cash two twenty-six to two twenty-seven. Fresh nineties four twenty. Fifties eighty-three cents. South American nineties shown three oh eight F O B Philadelphia. Today’s inventory price may not be the next shipment.

    HOST: Pork cutout up. Bellies and loins did the work. Seaboard’s point: consumption still near fifty pounds a person. Beef built eating quality. Chicken built convenience. HPAI hit commercial turkeys — not reported broiler losses. Corn thirteen percent harvested. Ratings worse than last year. Crude ninety-five seventy-eight.

    SHAWN: The important number isn’t always today’s price. Sometimes it’s the cost of being covered tomorrow. Stay disciplined.

    HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

    SHAWN: Stay disciplined.
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    2 分
  • THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST -Taco Meat Tuesday | September 22, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST -Taco Meat Tuesday | September 22, 2026
    2026/09/22
    THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCASTTaco Meat Tuesday | September 22, 2026Your daily market update on all things proteinHOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Taco Meat Tuesday for September 22, 2026, from The Sparks Group.SHAWN: We’ve gotten pretty good at producing protein. But have we gotten just as good at giving consumers what they actually want? Chad Groves at Seaboard made an interesting point this week. Pork has spent decades improving efficiency and producing more pounds, yet domestic consumption hasn’t moved much. Beef invested in eating quality and gave consumers a reason to pay more. Chicken made itself convenient, versatile, and affordable. Here’s where I think we need to pay attention. Consumers aren’t buying feed conversion, carcass yields, or plant efficiencies. They’re buying dinner. And they’re deciding whether that dinner was worth what they paid for it. We can keep chasing lower costs and more volume, but if we don’t give consumers a reason to choose our product, we’re eventually left competing on price. The next opportunity in protein isn’t necessarily producing more pounds. It’s making the pounds we produce worth more to the consumer.HOST: August placements fell nine point two percent, while positive packer margins supported additional slaughter. Export sales strengthened. Chicken wholesale remains mostly steady. New HPAI detections are affecting commercial turkey production. The pork cutout improved as Seaboard raised a broader question about demand and pork’s value proposition. Rising Brazilian cattle costs and competing Chinese demand are changing imported beef replacement economics. A potential Brazil–Uruguay quota arrangement adds another consideration. Corn harvest is advancing, but crop conditions remain below last year.SHAWN: The cattle pipeline is tightening even though feedlot inventories remain above last year. September first cattle-on-feed inventories increased seven-tenths of a percent. August placements declined nine point two percent. Cattle are staying on feed longer and producing heavier carcasses. The number on feed one hundred fifty days or longer increased five hundred fifty-four thousand head, or eighteen point three percent from last year. We’re getting more pounds from the cattle already in the system while fewer replacements enter it.HOST: Hales estimates positive packer margins of seventy-five to one hundred fifty a head, depending on region. USDA finalized last week’s cattle slaughter at five hundred twenty-nine thousand, up twenty-four thousand from the previous week. Doug Wright reports southern cash around two twenty-six to two twenty-seven, with packers managing slaughter volumes to protect recently improved margins. Hales reported one thousand twenty-eight loads of boxed beef export sales last week, up thirty-six percent from the previous week and fifty-one percent year over year. That improvement is worth distinguishing from China’s reduced purchases of U.S. beef. One destination doesn’t tell the entire export-demand story.SHAWN: Monday’s Choice cutout advanced to three seventy-six thirty-five. Select three fifty-five seventy-seven. Fresh nineties four nineteen eighty-three. Eighty-fives three forty-five oh four. Fifties eighty-three forty-one cents. Imported lean remains an important alternative for manufacturers, although forward replacement economics are changing.HOST: Chicken remains mostly steady. USDA reports adequate whole-bird supplies and moderate trading. Breasts, tenders, wings, and dark meat generally held. Bone-in breasts and front halves continued trading at discounted prices. Chicken slaughter is running one point two percent above last year. New HPAI detections affected about one hundred forty thousand two hundred commercial turkeys across Minnesota and Wisconsin, with another commercial turkey outbreak in Manitoba. These are turkey-production losses, not reported commercial broiler losses. They are nevertheless relevant as the industry approaches holiday procurement.SHAWN: Bellies and loins helped lift Monday’s pork cutout to eighty-eight ninety-one, up a dollar ninety-three. Bellies gained five thirty-five. Loins three sixty-four. Picnics declined two thirty-seven. Chad Groves, president and C E O of Seaboard Foods, speaking at the Leman Swine Conference, noted that domestic pork consumption remains near fifty pounds per person despite decades of efficiency and yield gains. He contrasted that with beef’s investment in eating quality and consumer-recognized grading. Beef cutout values increased about three point three times over the period he discussed, versus one point nine times for pork. Producing pork more efficiently helps manage costs. It doesn’t automatically increase what consumers are willing to pay. Kansas State’s Meat Demand Monitor reinforces taste and price, alongside growing attention to nutrition and health.HOST: Latest ...
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    9 分
  • THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME Monday Market Open | September 21, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIME Monday Market Open | September 21, 2026
    2026/09/21
    THE PROTEIN PULSE — DRIVE TIMEMonday Market Open | September 21, 2026

    HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Monday Market Open, September twenty-first. From The Sparks Group.

    SHAWN: Where are the cattle going to come from? August placements down nine percent — about one hundred fifteen thousand head below expectations. Lowest August since nineteen ninety-six. Fresh nineties at four oh eight. Fifties under ninety cents. Another one hundred thousand tons of quota opens October first. There may be buying to do before the supply picture catches up. Six forty-four diesel can eat a good purchase quickly. An import offer isn’t much good if it arrives after you need the meat.

    HOST: Theoretical seventy C L from equal nineties and fifties is about two forty-nine before freight and shrink. Not the same as a delivered plant cost. Still worth looking at.

    SHAWN: Year-to-date cattle slaughter down seven point five. Beef production down five point one. Heavier carcasses help. They don’t replace every missing animal. Platts imported nineties about three nineteen C I F East Coast. Brazil still has China. Quota access is not a redirected load. Santa Teresa is slated September twenty-fourth. Those cattle still have to be fed.

    HOST: Bellies dropped thirty cents. Hams and picnics went the other way. Chicken frames cheaper. Wings a dollar eleven. Don’t apply the cutout to every primal.

    SHAWN: I’m looking at what I can buy now — and what I may wish I’d bought six months from now. Stay disciplined.

    HOST: Protein Pulse Drive Time. Shawn Sparks, The Sparks Group.

    SHAWN: Stay disciplined.
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    2 分
  • THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST | Monday Market Open | September 21, 2026

    THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCAST | Monday Market Open | September 21, 2026
    2026/09/21
    THE PROTEIN PULSE PODCASTMonday Market Open | September 21, 2026Your daily market update on all things proteinHOST: Welcome to The Protein Pulse Podcast — your daily market update on all things protein. This is Monday Market Open for September 21, 2026, from The Sparks Group.SHAWN: Where are the cattle going to come from? That’s the question Friday’s Cattle on Feed report left me asking. August placements were down nine percent, roughly one hundred fifteen thousand head below expectations. We covered the numbers in our special report, but I keep coming back to what happens when those missing cattle would normally be ready for slaughter. And here’s what makes this market interesting. USDA fresh nineties are at four oh eight. Fifties are under ninety cents. And we have another one hundred thousand metric tons of import quota opening October first. There may be opportunities to get some buying done before the supply picture catches up with us. But six forty-four diesel can eat into a good purchase pretty quickly, and an import offer isn’t much good if it arrives after you need the meat. I’m looking at what I can buy now — and what I may wish I’d bought six months from now.HOST: Friday’s Cattle on Feed report raised new questions about fed-cattle availability heading into twenty twenty-seven. Domestic fat trim remains inexpensive relative to lean. Another one hundred thousand metric tons of import quota opens October first. Elevated diesel costs are changing delivered protein economics. Pork bellies declined sharply. Chicken frames softened. Whole wings moved slightly higher.SHAWN: USDA reported August placements of one point six one seven million head, down nine percent year over year and about one hundred fifteen thousand head below pre-report expectations. Lowest August placement total since the current series began in nineteen ninety-six. September first feedlot inventory eleven point one six three million, about one percent above last year. August marketings declined three percent to one point five one nine million. With about forty-three percent of August placements weighing eight hundred pounds or more, the timing of those cattle reaching slaughter will matter just as much as the headline placement number.HOST: What concerns Shawn is the combination of fewer cattle entering feedlots and an industry already processing substantially fewer head. Year-to-date cattle slaughter is down seven point five percent. Beef production is down five point one. Heavier carcasses offset part of the slaughter reduction. They cannot replace every missing animal.SHAWN: The domestic processing-beef market presents an interesting contrast. Latest national weekly fresh nineties four oh eight. Eighty-fives three twenty-nine. Fifties under ninety cents. For a manufacturer producing seventy percent lean ground beef, equal pounds of nineties and fifties generate a theoretical raw-material cost of about two forty-nine a pound before freight, processing, shrink, and margin. We can have a legitimate longer-term cattle supply problem and still find interesting purchasing economics in the current ingredient market. Kansas State’s Glynn Tonsor points to continued consumer interest in beef taste and quality, while higher prices put more pressure on lower-income households. I would not assume premium steaks and value-oriented ground beef will respond identically.HOST: Chicken. Modest increase in the national whole-bird average. Parts moved in different directions. Frames declined two oh seven cents to seven fifty-nine cents. For processors using frames in mechanically separated chicken and other recovery applications, that could improve raw-material economics. Recovery yield, processing expense, and finished-product value determine how much of the lower purchase price reaches the bottom line. Whole wings averaged a dollar eleven, up slightly. Wing prices remain a separate consideration for foodservice as fall sports demand develops. Boneless skinless breast and bulk leg quarters also moved higher. Year-to-date chicken slaughter is running one point two percent above last year. A small reduction in feed cost can be erased by deterioration in bird performance. The relevant measure is cost per pound of saleable chicken, not simply the lowest-priced ration.SHAWN: Pork. Bellies declined thirty thirty-one cents. Hams increased five twenty-one cents. Picnics gained two forty. A buyer purchasing bellies experienced a substantially different market from one buying ham or picnic. The overall cutout declined. That movement should not be applied indiscriminately across the carcass. Weekly hog slaughter two point four nine zero million. Year-to-date slaughter remains one percent below last year. Pork production nearly unchanged, down just one-tenth. Product mix and promotional timing may matter more than the overall cutout suggests.HOST: Imported lean remains central heading into October. The additional tariff-rate quota is ...
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    9 分