In this episode of How India's Economy Works, host Puja Mehra speaks with economist Renu Kohli, formerly at the Reserve Bank of India and the IMF and currently senior fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP). They talk about the recent depreciation of the rupee and why this episode may be different from previous currency shocks. Despite India's large foreign exchange reserves, the rupee has faced sustained pressure. Why?

Renu Kohli argues that the deeper issue lies not in India's trade balance but in the drying up of foreign capital inflows. She explains the difference between reserves earned through exports and what she calls "borrowed reserves", examines the decline in foreign direct investment, and discusses whether policymakers underestimated the structural nature of these pressures.

The conversation also explores the RBI's exchange-rate management strategy, the limits of using reserves to defend a currency, the impact of global capital flows, and why short-term measures can only buy time. Looking ahead, she outlines the reforms India may need if it wants to attract and retain long-term foreign investment in an increasingly competitive global environment.

What does the rupee's recent weakness tell us about India's place in the global economy? And what must change to ensure that external vulnerabilities do not become a lasting feature of India's growth story?

Tune in for insights on the rupee, foreign capital, forex reserves, and the structural challenges shaping India's economic future.

CHAPTERS

(00:00) Introduction

(01:04) Why Forex Reserves Didn't Prevent Rupee Weakness

(04:25) How the Current Shock Differs from 2013

(08:55) The Hidden Problem: Drying Foreign Capital

(13:33) Is This India's Most Serious External Vulnerability Since 1991?

(16:14) Did the RBI Misread the Nature of the Pressure?

(19:24) Should the Rupee Have Been Allowed to Fall Earlier?

(22:54) RBI's Short-Term Measures and Their Limits

(26:20) Can Policymakers Count on Global Capital Returning?

(29:29) Why India Is Struggling to Attract Foreign Investment

(32:19) What India Must Do to Secure Long-Term Capital Inflows

In this episode of How India’s Economy Works, host Puja Mehra speaks with economist and Professor of Economics at SRM University, Dr. Parag Waknis to unpack one of the most important yet least understood documents in Indian policymaking, the RBI’s accounts. They explore how the RBI manages government debt, why it holds government securities on its balance sheet, and how these operations influence GDP, liquidity, interest rates and inflation.

The conversation examines the evolution from direct deficit financing to the current system of primary dealers, the significance of foreign exchange reserves, and the RBI’s use of tools such as open market operations and Operation Twist. Dr. Waknis also explains the relationship between government borrowing and central bank profits, and discusses whether these dynamics affect the RBI’s policy independence.

Tune in for insights into the institution at the heart of India’s monetary and financial system.

CHAPTERS

(00:00) Introduction

(00:14) Why the RBI Balance Sheet Matters

(03:54) Why Government Bond Auctions Fail

(06:15) How RBI Invests Forex Reserves

(08:28) Operation Twist and Borrowing Costs

(11:21) Why RBI Doesn't Fund Government Directly

(14:33) Currency Notes, Coins and Sovereignty

(16:35) What the Latest Balance Sheet Shows

(19:00) Government Borrowing and RBI Surplus

(21:27) Rising Government Debt on RBI Books

(24:18) Is India’s Bond Market Distorted?

(25:44) RBI Independence and Balance Sheet Risks

(27:47) Understanding the Monetary Policy Corridor

(32:54) Rules Versus Discretion in Monetary Policy

(34:49) RBI’s Conflicting Institutional Roles

(36:36) Why US Debt Markets Differ

(37:48) Key Takeaways on RBI Operations

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In this episode of How India's Economy Works, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with economist and former NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Rajiv Kumar about why India’s manufacturing sector continues to underperform despite decades of policy attention and repeated attempts to boost industrial growth.

India has long aspired to become a global manufacturing hub, yet manufacturing’s share in GDP has stagnated and labour-intensive sectors such as apparel, leather and food processing have struggled to expand. Drawing on Dr. Kumar’s recent writing and policy experience, the conversation explores why India has failed to build an export-oriented manufacturing economy, why scale and competitiveness remain elusive, and whether the country has become too dependent on the idea of a large domestic market.

They discuss the limitations of production-linked incentives, the persistence of protectionist thinking, and why Indian industry has often preferred domestic shelter over global competition. The episode also examines the contrasting experiences of China, Bangladesh and Vietnam, the role of state governments in export promotion, the challenges facing SMEs, and why labour-intensive manufacturing remains crucial for absorbing surplus workers from agriculture.

The discussion raises larger questions about employment, industrial strategy and India’s long-term growth model. Can manufacturing still become a major engine of jobs and exports? What would it take for India to double its share in global trade? And are policymakers, industry and states aligned enough to make that happen?

Tune in for insights on why India’s manufacturing ambitions continue to fall short — and what it will take to build a more competitive, export-driven economy.

CHAPTERS

(00:00) Introduction

(00:20) Manufacturing Slowdown

(01:01) Export-Led Growth

(02:53) India’s Market Myth

(03:57) Competing With China

(08:37) Rewarding Exporters

(11:51) Bangladesh Garment Success

(12:25) Why Factories Leave India

(15:13) Jobs And Textiles

(16:52) Manufacturing Wake-Up Call

(18:14) Employment Concerns

(21:02) Supporting Smaller Firms

(21:39) Lessons From China

(23:58) Rethinking PLI

(25:51) Bureaucracy And Industry

(26:31) Breaking Policy Silos

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with Rosa Abraham, economist and one of the authors of the State of Working India 2026 report, about the growing stress in India’s labour market, highlighted by recent worker protests in Noida. They discuss why even formal sector jobs are no longer guaranteeing wage growth, with real earnings stagnating—and in some cases declining—over the past decade.

Abraham explains how this is not a cyclical slowdown but a deeper structural issue, driven by weak productivity, misallocation of capital, and the absence of a strong small and mid-sized enterprise base (crucial sector that invests in workers). They also examine why higher education is failing to translate into better jobs, leaving many young graduates unemployed or underemployed.

Are current policies missing the bigger picture? What does this mean for India’s demographic dividend?

Tune in for a sharp look at why economic growth isn’t reaching workers—and the risks of ignoring it.

CHAPTERS

(00:00) Introduction

(00:14) Worker Protests in Noida

(01:20) Stagnant Wages in India

(02:30) Falling Graduate Salaries

(04:27) What Low Wage Growth Reflects

(07:39) Why Minimum Wages Aren’t Enforced

(08:31) Youth Unemployment Explained

(12:01) India’s Demographic Dividend at Risk

(15:00) Demand vs Supply Side Problem

(18:16) Is It a Mindset Problem?

(20:28) Role of Public vs Private Sector

(22:09) Fixing the Jobs Ecosystem

(23:58) Risks of Inaction

(27:06) No Easy Solutions

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with Rajeswari Sengupta, Economist and Associate Professor at Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research (IGIDR), about the recent volatility in the rupee and the Reserve Bank of India’s response to it. They discuss how global shocks—from the West Asia conflict to sustained capital outflows—have exposed deeper structural vulnerabilities in India’s external sector.

Sengupta explains how the rupee’s weakness is not just cyclical but rooted in fundamentals, including rising import dependence, especially on energy, and weakening foreign capital inflows. Against this backdrop, they examine the RBI’s increasingly aggressive intervention to stabilise the currency.

But are these measures addressing volatility, or attempting to influence the level of the exchange rate itself? What does this mean for the rupee’s role as a market-driven price, and for India’s ambitions of greater financial openness?

Tune in for insights into the tensions between currency management and market forces, and what it means for the future of India’s exchange rate framework.

CHAPTERS

(00:00) Pressures on the Rupee

(01:09) West Asia War Impact

(02:30) Energy Import Dependencies

(04:32) Sustained Capital Outflows

(06:14) Financing Current Account Deficit

(08:03) RBI’s Intervention Methods

(10:14) Offshore Arbitrage and Banks

(11:58) Unprecedented Regulatory Measures

(13:16) Impact on Indian Banks

(15:42) Risks of Policy Flip-Flops

(16:59) Cost of Hedging Exposure

(21:20) Value of Market Speculation

(26:38) Rupee as Shock Absorber

(31:07) Recommendations for Future Policy

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with Hemant Mishr, Co-Founder and Group CIO of SCUBE Capital, and former Managing Director & Head- Financial Markets, South East Asia, SCCG at Standard Chartered Bank. They talk about how rising geopolitical tensions—from the Iran conflict to great-power rivalry—are beginning to reshape the foundations of the global financial system. They discuss how the post-1970s financial architecture was built on three pillars: globalization, a rules-based order backed by the United States, and relative geopolitical consensus.

Mishr explains how that system evolved around the oil shocks of the 1970s and the emergence of the petrodollar, which helped anchor the dominance of the US dollar and the recycling of global capital through American markets. But today, shifting power balances, the expanding use of financial sanctions, and growing geopolitical fragmentation are testing that framework.

What does this mean for the future of the dollar, global capital flows, and emerging economies like India?

Tune in for insights into how geopolitics is reshaping the world’s financial architecture.

SHOW NOTES

(00:00) Introduction

(00:52) Pillars of Financial Architecture

(02:18) Rise of the Petrodollar

(03:25) Shift to Petrodollar 2.0

(04:06) Three Scenarios for Finance

(06:05) India’s Role as Swing State

(07:25) Economic Impact of Oil Prices

(09:37) Risks to Rupee and Remittances

(11:02) Managing Complex Geopolitical Ties

(12:59) Timelines for Market Recovery

(16:17) Resilience of India’s Growth

(18:31) Investing in Indian Markets

(20:41) Lessons from China’s Model

(22:49) Managing Exchange Rate Volatility

(24:45) Deepening Local Credit Markets

(26:23) China’s Strategic Currency Policy

(29:57) Attracting Global Institutional Capital

(32:21) Developing International Financial Hubs

(34:24) Technology and Data Security

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