In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with economist Partha Chatterjee and Dean of Academics at Shiv Nadar University. They talk about how the Indian economy is really performing beneath the headline numbers and what recent data signals about growth prospects through 2026. Drawing on the latest GDP estimates, inflation readings, labour market indicators, and credit trends, Chatterjee explains why strong real GDP growth and low inflation—hailed by the Reserve Bank of India as a “Goldilocks” phase—mask growing imbalances across sectors. He unpacks the widening gap between real and nominal GDP growth, the emergence of deflationary pressures in agriculture and parts of manufacturing, and why subdued price growth has serious implications for incomes, profitability, and government finances. The conversation examines the sources of current demand, including public capital expenditure, rising household credit, and the expanding role of cash transfers, and questions how sustainable this mix is over the medium term. Chatterjee also assesses the limits of industrial policy tools such as PLI schemes, their weak employment impact, and the risks posed by slowing job creation, stagnant rural wages, and rising import dependence. The discussion concludes with reflections on the policy trade-offs facing the government and the RBI, and why characterising the economy as “Goldilocks” risks complacency at a time of heightened global volatility. Tune in for insights on what India’s growth numbers reveal—and conceal—about jobs, incomes, fiscal space, and economic resilience.

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with trade policy expert Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), about the impact of steep US tariffs on India’s exports and what the latest data reveals about the state of India–US trade negotiations. Drawing on sector-wise export trends, Srivastava explains the puzzling two-step trajectory in India’s exports to the US—a sharp initial fall followed by a partial recovery even as tariffs climbed to 50%—and outlines why this resilience may be driven by temporary adjustments.

He also examines whether India can realistically diversify away from the US market, why such shifts are slow and constrained by India’s export basket, and how global competition—particularly from China—limits alternative options. The conversation also touches on India’s recent spurt of free trade agreements, arguing that they reflect a revival of stalled negotiations rather than a fundamental shift in trade strategy. The discussion highlights why the India–US talks go far beyond a conventional trade agreement, touching on agriculture, domestic policy autonomy, and strategic concerns that India has consistently treated as red lines. Tune in for insights on what the trade data signals about India’s negotiating space, the costs of prolonged uncertainty, and the limits of compromise in a high-stakes economic relationship.

(00:00) Setting the India–US trade context

(00:42) Sharp export decline and partial rebound

(02:44) Why exports revived despite higher tariffs

(03:06) How exporters are sharing tariff losses

(05:33) Why the recovery may not last

(06:44) Is export diversification really happening

(09:27) Why tariffs won’t speed negotiations

(10:12) Trade deal versus strategic demands

(12:34) Employment risks from prolonged tariffs

(13:13) India’s non-negotiable red lines

(14:21) What India can realistically offer

(15:57) Country-specific versus MFN concessions

(16:45) Are India’s FTAs a strategy shift

(18:35) Why FTAs are being fast-tracked

(19:16) Using data to read trade signals

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In this episode, journalist and author Puja Mehra speaks with economist N. R. Bhanumurthy about the rise of women-focused cash transfer schemes and what they reveal about India’s social policy priorities. Drawing on his evaluations of early pilots in Madhya Pradesh that shaped the Ladli Behna programme, Bhanumurthy explains why cash outperforms kind transfers, how implementation improved with better beneficiary identification and payment systems, and what the evidence shows about nutrition gains for women and children.

He also addresses concerns that these schemes are becoming political tools or crowding out spending on health and education, arguing instead that the real issue is the lack of rationalisation across hundreds of overlapping state schemes. The conversation highlights why mobility remains a major barrier for women, why free bus travel could have long-term economic benefits, and how India’s current gender budgeting framework must shift from accounting to outcomes. Tune in for insights on how welfare can be redesigned to advance gender equity.

SHOW NOTES

(00:00) Introduction

(00:14) How Cash Transfer Ideas Began

(01:00) Early Schemes in Madhya Pradesh

(04:04) Lessons from Ground Evaluations

(04:47) What Worked and What Didn’t

(06:40) Cash vs Kind: Key Findings

(07:54) Misuse Concerns and Realities

(09:24) Are Schemes Becoming Political?

(10:16) Welfare, Politics, and Gender Gaps

(12:44) Cash Transfers vs Public Services

(13:28) Do Transfers Reduce State Effort?

(15:03) Fiscal Risks and Scheme Overlap

(15:32) Why States Must Rationalise

(17:16) Free Bus Travel for Women

(19:05) Short-Term vs Long-Term Impact

(20:36) Mobility, Culture, and Labour Gaps

(21:32) Women’s Work and Growth Potential

(23:59) Rethinking India’s Gender Budgeting

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