In this final episode of Relative Return Insider for 2025, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver wrap-up the year, look ahead to 2026, and break down the most interesting numbers from the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

The last 12 months was full of challenges and volatility, but for Oliver the most important takeaway has been the resilience of markets as they were buffeted with geopolitical tensions, inequality concerns, and speculation about an AI bubble.

Listen as they explore:

• Why the government should use its strong political position to pursue meaningful fiscal restraint.
• What the US Fed is likely to do in the face of patchy data due to the shutdown and a slowing but still-resilient labour market.
• Oliver's expectations for the coming year, including moderate growth, higher volatility and still-positive returns.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack the RBA's decision to keep the cash rate on hold in the face of rising inflation and whether the governor's hawkish tone is a sign of things to come.

Oliver also explains the Fed's move to cut rates for the third time, which he characterises as "insurance" against a softening labour market rather than a sign that it is abandoning its inflation target.

Listen as they explore:

• Why the base case for rates should still be a hold, provided inflation behaves.
• How hyper‑frequent data, constant market checking, and doom‑laden headlines can undermine long‑term investing discipline.
• The outlook for the seasonal Santa rally.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver discuss the September quarter GDP figures, which show Australia's economy regaining momentum, with annual growth lifting to 2.1 per cent, the fastest pace in two years, despite a softer-than-expected 0.4 per cent quarterly print.

Oliver explains that headline GDP was dragged down by inventory run-downs and weaker net exports, but underlying domestic demand was supported by robust business investment – particularly in data centres and AI-related infrastructure.

Listen as they explore:

• The implications of the GDP figures on the RBA's future interest rate decisions.
• Why Australian home prices continue to climb.
• How to address the supply side issues constraining housing affordability.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver discuss the latest shock consumer price index numbers, which rose to 3.8 per cent in October, as well as the shifting US market and calls for super funds to invest in infrastructure projects.

As US equities swinging sharply before rebounding and AI-driven tech stocks continuing to propel sentiment, Oliver explains why investors may simply be witnessing another temporary correction within a still-intact long-term uptrend.

Listen as they explore:

• Why hotter-than-expected CPI figures have all but ruled out a near-term RBA rate cut.
• What APRA's cap on high debt-to-income lending signals for investor activity.
• The growing interest in tapping super funds for infrastructure investment.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver discuss the Reserve Bank of Australia's cautious stance in response to persistent inflation, subdued growth prospects, and political shifts affecting the nation's journey towards net zero emissions.

The discussion also looks at the growing role of cryptocurrencies, considering whether they could hinder productivity by diverting capital away from productive assets, and if there are any potential risks if investment in the digital asset surges.

Listen as they explore:
• RBA as Australia faces inflation and sluggish productivity growth.
• What a resolution to the US government shutdown means going forward.
• Political uncertainty around net zero targets continuing to cloud the business investment climate.

In this episode of Relative Return, host Laura Dew speaks with Rachel White, head of financial adviser services at Vanguard about how advisers can help Australians to feel confident in retirement.

Listen as they discuss:

- The role of advisers in helping Australians feel confident in retirement.
- How advice can bring benefits for wellbeing and emotions
- The impact of the advice gap and how advisers can support both clients with complex needs and those who need simple guidance
- Vanguard's efforts to help advisers deliver advice more efficiently
- Closing the advice gap via the use of technology

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina take a look at the Reserve Bank's unanimous decision to leave rates on hold on Melbourne Cup Day and whether future cuts are still on the cards.

Following higher-than-expected inflation numbers last week, the RBA surprised no one as it left rates unchanged, however Mousina suggested the central bank might be overemphasising recent inflation data and not fully accounting for potential weakening in the labour market and consumer spending.

They also explore:
• The impact that Q3 reporting for AI and tech stocks has had on the US market.
• Continued volatility in cryptocurrency markets reflecting the speculative nature of digital assets.
• Whether the government shutdown in the US will start to impact the broader economy.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP deputy chief economist Diana Mousina break down the spike in inflation numbers and what it means for the possibility of a rate cut as we move into the new year.

With September quarter inflation data showing trimmed mean rising by 1 per cent, considerably higher than the Reserve Bank of Australia's forecast, a near-term rate cut is unlikely, but that doesn't mean the book should be closed on cuts.

They also explore:

• The US Federal Reserve making the decision to cut rates despite having limited data due to the government shutdown.
• Why the AI boom is based on solid foundations even as it shows signs of frothiness.
• The argument for a rate cut to back the labour market.