In this final episode of Relative Return Insider for 2025, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver wrap-up the year, look ahead to 2026, and break down the most interesting numbers from the Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook.

The last 12 months was full of challenges and volatility, but for Oliver the most important takeaway has been the resilience of markets as they were buffeted with geopolitical tensions, inequality concerns, and speculation about an AI bubble.

Listen as they explore:

• Why the government should use its strong political position to pursue meaningful fiscal restraint.
• What the US Fed is likely to do in the face of patchy data due to the shutdown and a slowing but still-resilient labour market.
• Oliver's expectations for the coming year, including moderate growth, higher volatility and still-positive returns.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver unpack the RBA's decision to keep the cash rate on hold in the face of rising inflation and whether the governor's hawkish tone is a sign of things to come.

Oliver also explains the Fed's move to cut rates for the third time, which he characterises as "insurance" against a softening labour market rather than a sign that it is abandoning its inflation target.

Listen as they explore:

• Why the base case for rates should still be a hold, provided inflation behaves.
• How hyper‑frequent data, constant market checking, and doom‑laden headlines can undermine long‑term investing discipline.
• The outlook for the seasonal Santa rally.

In this episode of Relative Return Insider, host Keith Ford and AMP chief economist Shane Oliver discuss the September quarter GDP figures, which show Australia's economy regaining momentum, with annual growth lifting to 2.1 per cent, the fastest pace in two years, despite a softer-than-expected 0.4 per cent quarterly print.

Oliver explains that headline GDP was dragged down by inventory run-downs and weaker net exports, but underlying domestic demand was supported by robust business investment – particularly in data centres and AI-related infrastructure.

Listen as they explore:

• The implications of the GDP figures on the RBA's future interest rate decisions.
• Why Australian home prices continue to climb.
• How to address the supply side issues constraining housing affordability.