The Chinese have sold a record amount of US Treasuries. Again. Most mainstream explanations point to political motives including many asserting an intentional act to move away from the dollar. The actual reason is indeed monetary but not at all in that way. The important immediate implications tell us a lot about the conditions for the globally synchronized economy.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg China Sells Record Sum of US Debt Amid Signs of Diversification
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-16/china-sells-record-sum-of-us-debt-amid-signs-of-diversification

CNN China has teased how it might fix its property crisis. Markets are loving it
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/16/business/china-property-crisis-unsold-homes-hnk-intl/index.html

China NBS Basic situation of the national real estate market from January to April 2024
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202405/t20240517_1955760.html

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A major global central bank would never hike rates during a prolonged recession, would it? You might be surprised to find out the answer is a solid, yes. Not only did it just happen, the reasons why tell us a whole lot about the real aim of central bank policies, where they come from, and, more important of all, the status of our globally synchronized world. The cycle drama just got taken up a notch.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Bloomberg Japan’s Economy Sputters as Dismal Run Extends to Three Quarters
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/japan-s-economy-contracts-as-consumers-companies-cut-spending

Reuters Japan's economy skids, clouding BOJ's rate hike plans
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japans-gdp-contracts-complicating-bojs-rate-hike-plans-2024-05-16/

Reuters Japan's finmin says 'speculative' moves in currency market impacting yen
https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/japans-finance-minister-sees-speculative-moves-currency-market-2024-04-01/

Investing.com Japan GDP shrinks more than expected in Q1 as consumption slows
https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/japan-gdp-shrinks-more-than-expected-in-q1-as-consumption-slows-3443154

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They called it the most important economic update in living memory, holding the key to everything from inflation to economy and interest rates. When it came out, it wasn't what everyone thought and even more interesting those numbers ended up being overshadowed by another set alarmingly consistent with everything else we've been seeing lately.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

BLS April US CPI press release
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf

Bloomberg Here Are the Key Takeaways From US CPI Report for April
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-cpi-report-april-2024-key-takeaways-on-inflation-core-measure

Bloomberg US Retail Sales Stall After Downward Revisions in Prior Months
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-15/us-retail-sales-stall-after-downward-revisions-in-prior-months

CNN The backbone of America’s economy was just dealt a serious blow
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/economy/us-retail-sales-april/index.html

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When the person who is supposed to help you find a job finds out they no longer have one themselves, that's a warning sign about the economy. Those have been proliferating lately and mostly focused on employment. This fits nicely (in a bad way) into other late cycle signals coming across including a sharp rise in consumer credit delinquencies.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

Indeed Message from CEO
https://www.indeed.com/press/releases/a-message-from-our-ceo-chris-hyams-2

FRBNY HOUSEHOLD DEBT AND CREDIT REPORT (Q1 2024)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html

Liberty Street Economics Delinquency Is Increasingly in the Cards for Maxed‑Out Borrowers
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2024/05/delinquency-is-increasingly-in-the-cards-for-maxed-out-borrowers/

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China's total credit in April actually fell for only the third time and by the most ever. Clearly the government is alarmed by that as well as the distinct lack of traction in the real economy (more deflation in producer prices, minimal gains in consumer prices). We'll go over what was just reported, what the government's next government plan is likely to be, and what the market(s) reaction(s) has(have) been.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

NYT Biden Looks to Thwart Surge of Chinese Imports
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/08/us/politics/biden-china-imports.html

WSJ China Hints at New Growth Push as it Warns of Rising Uncertainties
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-calls-long-delayed-policy-meeting-warning-of-rising-uncertainties-032fb571

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There is a resurgence underway not from consumer prices as everyone thinks, instead the use of the term "stagflation." This is really nothing more than the shift in narrative attempting to incorporate more visible economic weakness while still keeping it the idea "inflation." But as the former takes the forefront, the latter will continue to fade until what's left isn't even stagnation.

Eurodollar University's conversation w/Steve Van Metre

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Another critical economic measures shows big negative changes and they aren't "inflation" problems. It's not just that American consumers are cracking, the consistent theme which keeps coming up over and over is jobs. The US labor market has been stuck in half a recession already, is this now the other half?

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

UofM Surveys of Consumers
http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

CNBC Consumer sentiment tumbles as inflation fears surge, closely watched survey shows
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/10/consumer-sentiment-tumbles-as-inflation-fears-surge-closely-watched-survey-shows.html

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The one news article in the media said it all; more companies are now cutting their prices despite inflation. Except, no, it isn't in spite of other price changes, instead in response to them. The economy isn't inflationary, it is weak and getting weaker. Eye opening new data is alarmingly consistent with the price cuts.

Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis

CNN Retailers jacked up prices and squeezed consumers. They might have just blinked
https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/05/business/retailers-cutting-prices/index.html

Michaels Lowers Prices on Thousands of Arts, Crafts and DIY Items
https://www.michaelspressroom.com/news/detail/2293/michaels-lowers-prices-on-thousands-of-arts-crafts-and-diy

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