Injuries derail seasons — but for dynasty managers, they can also open a window of opportunity. In this episode, Jeff Blaylock explores The Island of Broken Toys: a place where productive but injured players lose short-term value but retain long-term potential.

Jeff outlines how to identify real broken-toy opportunities, calculate appropriate trade discounts, and avoid the emotional traps that make other managers sell too low. He also breaks down Adam Hutchison’s injury research, explains which positions are most likely to bounce back, and offers guidance for fitting these moves into your team’s strategic direction.

Timestamps:
00:00 – Introduction
01:14 – What makes a player a “broken toy”
02:22 – Why strategy comes first
03:15 – Dynasty vs. redraft
04:37 – Tank Dell example
06:06 – Injury risk and recovery data
09:59 – Why the market exists
11:22 – Buyers and sellers by compass direction
14:32 – Types of sellers
16:21 – Trade discount guidelines
20:12 – Red flags and risk management
25:00 – Scarcity and strategy
26:25 – Closing thoughts and Episode 16 preview

Links Mentioned:

• Adam Hutchison’s injury research at Footballguys: https://www.footballguys.com/article/2025-fantasy-performance-reinjury-rate-by-position
• Ep. 14 – Trade Deadline Strategies: https://youtu.be/0GXTgti19A0
• Ep. 12 – The Currency of Dynasty: https://youtu.be/oMxqBhyDTh0
• Ep. 4 – 5 Kinds of Players on Your Roster: https://youtu.be/PghAw0zqNKY
• Subscribe for weekly Dynasty Compass episodes:
  https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCHINXdOZ9QQ-YOM6phMh_gw
• Listen on Apple Podcasts:
  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dynasty-compass/id1831101084
• Follow Jeff on Twitter/X:
  https://twitter.com/jeffblaylock

Episode 14: Preparing for the Trade Deadline (North/South/East)
Big Idea: The deadline compresses time. Bad, strategy-less moves harden into months of regret. Know your direction first, then act.

North – Perennial Contenders

• Goal: Fine-tune, not overhaul.
• Questions:
  1. Which marginal improvements will help the most?
  2. Does the move help now and next year? (prefer both)
  3. Am I getting enough value to make this move now?
• Tactics: patch weak spots; keep at least a 1st or 2nd in each of the next drafts to reload.

South – Rebuilders

• Goal: Convert points-now vets into future value.
• Questions:
  1. What do contenders value most right now? (points)
  2. How does the player I’m selling fit my future (age/arc/contract)?
  3. When do I realize the benefit—next year or later?
• Notes: Beware pick hoarding without roster spots. Consider 2-for-1 outgoing to clear space if you already have a pick surplus.

East – Wait-and-Seers

• Goal: Maintain flexibility; avoid half-measures.
• Questions:
  1. What small upgrade makes me a tougher out in the playoffs?
  2. Can I get those improvements without sacrificing the future?
  3. Can I do this deal in the offseason? If yes, wait.
• Often-correct move: Stand pat and field offers.

Universal Principle:
“Can I do this deal in March/April instead?” If yes, the deadline premium should be on your side, not theirs.

Tease: Next episode—Island of Broken Toys (how to value injured assets).

Chapters
00:00 Intro
01:26 The biggest mistake
02:07 Compass refresher
03:16 Strategies for perennial contenders (North)
5:08 3 Questions for contenders
09:49 Strategies for rebuilders (South)
12:01 3 Questions for rebuilders
18:58 Strategies for wait-and-seers (East) & 3 questions
22:53 Pressure check by direction
24:02 Next week: Island of Broken Toys

🐦 Follow Jeff on X/Twitter: https://x.com/jeffblaylock
📈Jeff's Dynasty Rankings: https://www.footballguys.com/rankings/ranker/jeff-blaylock/duration/dynasty?year=2025&userId=978336
🏈Footballguys: https://www.footballguys.com/

🧭 More at https://dynastycompass.buzzsprout.com

Using our compass metaphor, the West is home to Win-now teams. Jeff offers some strategies for dynasty managers looking for late-season boosts to their lineups.

🧩 Key Takeaways

• What a Starter Boost is
• How Bench Boosts fit
• What win-now teams can sell (picks, broken toys, prospects, surplus),
• What they should buy (rentals, certainty), and
• When to pull back and pivot when winning now may not be the best strategy.

Win Now = Controlled Aggression. Smart upgrades to starting lineups lead to championships.