In this episode, conservative pundit Sabrina and economist Mike Moffatt speak with David Coletto, CEO of Abacus Data, to explore the evolving landscape of Canadian election polling. They discuss the impact of recent policy changes, particularly the carbon tax, on voter sentiment and the shifting dynamics of affordability issues. The conversation delves into the trends among young voters, particularly young men, and the gender dynamics influencing voting behavior. The discussion also highlights the scarcity mindset surrounding housing and the rising favorability of Mark Carney as a political figure.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction, David Coletto

01:12 Who gets credit for axing the tax?

04:34 What happened to the affordability issue?

07:20 Young voters, trends and influences

11:41 Gender dynamics in voting behavior

13:25 Scarcity mindset and housing concerns

16:11 Rise of Liberals or collapse of the NDP?

17:28 Canadian national unity

18:50 Mark Carney's rising favorability

22:02 Expectations and the bandwagon effect

24:17 Reflections on a pivotal election

Three numbers tell the story of the election this week, and none of them looks good for Poilievre

Why Are Young Men Shifting Right? A Trend I’ve Been Tracking for a While

"Carbon Tax Carney" gets the credit for axing the tax

‘It’s not over’: Two pollsters explain how Mark Carney pulled ahead — and why he shouldn’t get too comfortable

Abacus Data Poll: Liberals lead by 4

Polymarket

Guest:

David Coletto

https://abacusdata.ca/team/david-coletto/

https://davidcoletto.substack.com/

Hosts:

Sabrina Maddeaux https://x.com/SabrinaMaddeaux

Mike Moffatt https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt https://bsky.app/profile/mikepmoffatt.bsky.social

Producer: Meredith Martin https://twitter.com/meredithmartin https://bsky.app/profile/meredithmartin.bsky.social, https://www.linkedin.com/in/meredith-martin-21108165/

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation https://neptis.org/

Brought to you by the Missing Middle Initiative https://www.missingmiddleinitiative.ca/

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.