You built equity, planned ahead, and did everything right, so why is the next step on the housing ladder completely out of reach?

Canada’s housing crisis is usually framed around first-time buyers struggling to get into the market. But a growing number of Canadians already made that leap and are now stuck. Couples who bought small condos with the expectation of eventually upgrading are discovering that the path forward has quietly disappeared.

In this episode, Mike Moffatt and Sabrina Maddeaux unpack the rise of the “trapped” second-time homebuyer; households in their late 20s to early 40s who did everything right, built equity, and planned ahead, only to find that larger, family-sized homes are further out of reach than ever. With prices outpacing incomes, policy focused on first-time buyers, and a shortage of suitable homes, the traditional housing ladder no longer works.

What happens when an entire generation can’t move up, even after getting in? And what does it mean for family formation, economic mobility, and the future of Canada’s housing system?

Chapters:

00:00 The "Broken Ladder": Canada’s Second-Time Homebuyer Crisis

00:58 Trapped in the Starter Home:The Condo Squeeze

03:01 The Over-Focus on Shoebox Condos vs. Family Homes

04:13 How the Housing Dream Changed

05:44 Is the “Condo-to-Detached” Model a Ponzi Scheme?

06:39 The “Goldilocks” Scenario for Sustainable Housing Gains

08:16 Polling Data: What Ontarians Actually Care About

10:17 The Case for Extending HST Rebates Beyond First-Time Buyers

11:11 Policy Dorks vs. The Public: Finding Common Ground

14:00 Property Taxes: The "Political Third Rail"

15:45 Should Housing Rules Be Handled by the Province?

16:35 Why Down Payment Support Might Be Hurting More Than Helping

18:43 Renters’ Rights & The Future of Canadian Housing

Research Links:

New OREA survey finds Ontarians support change and transparency in housing costs and policies

Housing in Ontario: Perceptions, Impacts, And Solutions

Unlocking Homeownership: What Canadians Want from Housing Policy

A Blueprint to Restore Homeownership for Young Canadians

Is Ontario Ready to Spend $895M to Jumpstart Homebuilding?

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

Is Canada still a “land of opportunity,” or has your success become a function of who your parents are?

In this segment, Cara Stern and Mike Moffatt dive into the uncomfortable reality of meritocracy in Canada. While Boomers largely believe hard work still pays off, Millennials and Gen Z are seeing a different story. We break down the latest Ipsos polling data and Statistics Canada research that shows social mobility is eroding.

From the "Housing Theory of Everything" to the widening gap between equal opportunity and equal outcomes, we explore why the rules of the game have changed, and what we need to fix to make Canada fair again.

Chapters:

00:00 Introduction

00:46 Defining Meritocracy

1:12 Is Canada a Meritocracy?

02:41 Measuring Meritocracy Income and Polls

04:23 Generational Divide in Ipsos Poll

05:54 Fairness Equal Opportunity vs Outcomes

07:15 Economists on Eroding Social Mobility

09:07 Increasing Distrust in Institutions & Distrust of Politicians

09:47 Changing Minds Understanding New Realities

11:13 Housing Crisis and Social Mobility

12:45 The Role of Effort combined with Environment

Research/links:

Generational Disconnect In Canada Ipsos Equalities Index 2025 - A 31-country Global Advisor Study

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2025-08/generational-disconnect-in-Canada.pdf

Trends in Intergenerational Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Canada

Trends in Intergenerational Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Canada

International Fairness Day 2024: Canada’s commitment to fairness for every generation is more than an empty slogan – but it’s not yet a reality

https://www.if.org.uk/2024/11/18/international-fairness-day-2024-canadas-commitment-to-fairness-for-every-generation-is-more-than-an-empty-slogan-but-its-not-yet-a-reality/

A retreat from opportunity: Is the Canadian dream still alive?

https://thehub.ca/2025/11/10/deepdive-a-retreat-from-opportunity-is-the-canadian-dream-still-alive/

Intergenerational income mobility in Canada: Research highlights from two recent studies

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/36-28-0001/2023012/article/00001-eng.htm

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.

In 2025, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported nearly 260,000 housing starts, a figure that suggests real progress on the housing crisis. But a deeper look reveals a much more complicated and concerning reality.

Most of the new supply is made up of small condos and apartments, not the family-sized homes people are looking for. Because housing starts are recorded late in the construction process, today’s data often reflects decisions made years ago, not current market conditions.

Even more concerning, pre-construction sales are falling across multiple cities. This raises serious questions about what housing supply will look like in the years ahead.

In this episode, we discuss:

• Why CMHC’s housing starts data can be misleading
• The difference between housing starts and real time market conditions
• Why Canada is building smaller homes
• The composition effect changing housing trends
• What falling pre construction sales signal for the future

Chapters:

00:00:00 Intro: The Housing Data Disconnect

00:01:06 The Problem With CMHC Housing Starts Data

00:04:06 How to Fix Misleading Housing Metrics

00:05:14 The One-Size-Fits-All Data Problem

00:05:49 Generational Shifts in Home Size

00:07:05 Reality vs Data: Smaller Homes and Composition Effects

00:08:14 The Collapse of Pre-Construction Sales

00:09:12 Future Housing Market Outlook

Research Links

CMHC Housing Report: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook

Hosted by Mike Moffatt & Cara Stern & Sabrina Maddeaux

Produced by Meredith Martin

This podcast is funded by the Neptis Foundation and brought to you by the Smart Prosperity Institute.