Topics Covered

• Setting the global context: the $7 trillion daily FX market and its drivers
• The advantages of technical analysis in high-liquidity markets
• Rule-based systems and algos: strategies for 24/5 trading
• Key FX trading approaches: trend, mean reversion, breakouts, session-based, and news-driven
• Dubai’s financial rise: DIFC, regulation, and the time zone advantage
• The role of the CMT Association and Women in Technical Analysis in shaping the future of finance

Upcoming Events

• September 28 – CMT Riyadh Community Meeting: a premier forum for market professionals across Saudi Arabia and beyond.
  • Register here
• September 30–October 2 – CMT Global Investment Summit in Dubai: an elite gathering of fund managers, strategists, and investors decoding cross-asset trends and innovations in global markets.
  • Register here
  • Women in TA dinner

Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

U.S. Valuations: Deutsche Bank research shows that historically, high valuations have led to weaker 10-year returns, raising questions about long-term U.S. equity performance

AI and the Mag-7: The current rally is highly concentrated in mega-cap tech stocks, creating a potential disconnect between pricing and fundamentals.

Global Equities & Currencies: State Street reports that the 9% year-to-date decline in the U.S. dollar has boosted international returns, with Europe benefiting most

Sector Leadership in Europe: BlackRock highlights resilience in banks, aerospace & defense, luxury, and semiconductors, while remaining cautious on healthcare

Diversification: AQR stresses the importance of liquid diversifiers, like trend-following strategies, in reducing risk and improving long-term returns

Portfolio Insights:

• Dantes Outlook Alpha Capture ETF Model Portfolio gained 2.33% in August, outperforming its benchmark by 30 bps.
• Key contributors: cyclical sectors, emerging markets, inflation beneficiaries (INFL), and Eurozone/U.S. bond exposure.
• Year-to-date results: Moderate +6.54%, Aggressive +32.67%, Conservative +9.45%

Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com to learn more.

Email damanick@dantesoutlook.com to request a meeting.

Rates & Fed Policy: Markets are overly optimistic on rate cuts; inflation remains sticky, keeping the Fed cautious (DeepMacro).

Equity Positioning: Systematic funds are heavily tilted toward equities, with allocations at or near record highs (MenthorQ).

China Equities: Narrowing gap between H-shares and A-shares signals opportunity; liquidity and household cash provide strong support (HSBC).

Market Breadth: Short-term indicators are overbought, but long-term breadth remains healthy (Dantes Outlook).

Fixed Income: Attractive yields unlikely to return to pre-pandemic lows; belly of the curve (5–6 year maturities) offers a balance of income and rate risk (Vanguard).

Municipals & Credit: Municipal bonds and investment-grade credit stand out as high-quality, inexpensive options.

Equities: Active managers struggle against the Magnificent Seven; indexing provides a strong foundation, while Industrials, Financials, and Healthcare offer selective momentum opportunities (Morningstar, Dantes Outlook).

Takeaway: Stay disciplined, revisit bond allocations, and avoid overstretching for yield or risk.

Market Breadth: NYSE advancers outpaced decliners 4-to-1, suggesting resilience beneath the equity rally (SentimenTrader).

Macro Signals: Inflation remains domestically driven; Fed unlikely to cut quickly. U.S. dollar regains strength versus peers (DeepMacro).

Dantes Outlook Positioning: Trimmed active tilts, maintaining preference for U.S. equities while adding emerging markets. Funded by profits in gold and inflation hedges. Launched tactical semiconductor strategy based on momentum signals.

Bond Market Evolution: Portfolio trading volumes in U.S. corporate bonds surged 54% in H1 2025, boosting liquidity and efficiency (Barclays).

Investor Behavior: Morningstar’s “Mind the Gap” shows investors underperform funds by ~1.2% annually due to timing mistakes.

Forward-Looking Markets: Historical data shows equities often rebound after major payroll revisions, underscoring how markets anticipate economic shifts (Fidelity).

Visit us at www.dantesoutlook.com

Topics Covered:

Portfolio construction in today’s macro climate — balancing risk, correlations, and tracking error.

Credit market health — Morningstar DBRS and Proskauer data show improving leverage, coverage, and default rates.

Bond market reset — Deutsche Bank’s historical context on the worst 5-year Treasury returns and forward expectations.

Opportunities in core bonds — PIMCO’s view on yields, international duration, and diversification benefits.

DeepMacro model positioning — long USD, contrarian equity overweight, and rates strategy.

Trend-following under pressure — why CTAs are lagging in 2025.

Emerging markets strategy — Victor Zhou on activeness, tracking error, and the under-researched alpha potential in EM small caps.

Key Takeaways:

Dollar correlations are a driver of our U.S. equity overweight.

Credit fundamentals are stronger, with default rates falling.

Bond valuations have reset, creating better entry points, but real returns may remain modest.

Trend-following struggles highlight the need for multi-strategy systematic approaches.

In emerging markets, higher activeness and small-cap allocations improve alpha opportunities.

References:

Morningstar DBRS

Proskauer Private Credit Default Report

Deutsche Bank Global Markets Research

PIMCO Fixed Income Outlook

DeepMacro Model Positioning

State Street Emerging Markets Strategy Research

This week’s episode covers:

• U.S.–EU trade deal impact and the new 15% tariff baseline
• Margin debt surges—5th fastest rise since 1998 (source: Deutsche Bank)
• Fed and ECB hold steady, but tone remains cautious
• Breadth weakening beneath the surface despite equity highs
• Trimming gold, watching silver/platinum and volatility signals
• July portfolio performance + positioning adjustments
• What we’re watching: CTA trends, EMFX momentum, and central bank shifts

Referenced Sources:

Deutsche Bank Macro Strategy Notes

SentimenTrader Momentum/Breadth Indicators

MRB Partners EM Currency Research

Dantes Outlook internal trend models & analytics

Connect with us to access portfolios:
DantesOutlook.com/connect

This week’s topics include:

✅ U.S.–Japan trade deal and what it means for global risk sentiment

📊 Q2 earnings beat expectations—but growth is slowing

📈 Meme stocks signal renewed retail risk appetite

🏦 Central banks pivot toward holding rates—insights from the ECB and Fed

📉 Vanguard cuts U.S. equity return forecasts; bonds catch up

🌍 DeepMacro flags expansion in emerging markets

📌 Internal perspectives from Victor Zhou and Elena Zeng on portfolio positioning

📈 How Dantes Outlook is adjusting exposures across equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies

🔗 Join our exclusive client and advisor platform:

DantesOutlook.com/connect

Today, we explore global energy through the lens of Russia, the world’s largest exporter of oil and gas. And to the west is Europe, which is heavily reliant on Russian gas supplies. According to some estimates, Russia is earning roughly $500 million per day on oil and another $400 million on gas all together.

But gas flows from Russia to Europe were already declining into the Q4 heating season last year. Flows flattened out earlier this year, and are  now ticking downward.

To help us understand the Russia/EU gas market, we turn to Nadia Kazakova, an analyst at Renaissance Energy Advisors (REA). Nadia is an expert in this field with prior roles at JP Morgan and Saxo Bank. She also provides in depth analysis on operating stats from Gazprom, Russia’s majority state-owned energy company.

On this show, we discussed:

• Russia’s importance in the global and EU oil and gas markets
• The buildup of gas fields and a vast pipeline network from Siberia and throughout Eastern Europe
• Gazprom's growing influence on EU gas supply, and its efforts to go downstream to capture additional margin
• The significance of Gazprom's November export cut to the EU, stemming from the Nordstream pipeline debacle
• Supply mix from Norway, Algeria and US LNG
• Expectations for further export reductions from Gazprom, below its annual output target
• The new system of ruble payments – its complexity and implications for sanctions and long-term contracts
• New evidence that Gazprom is already cutting back volumes to non-compliant customers
• Future price stabilization or volatility, and what to monitor going forward