This week’s topics include:

✅ U.S.–Japan trade deal and what it means for global risk sentiment

📊 Q2 earnings beat expectations—but growth is slowing

📈 Meme stocks signal renewed retail risk appetite

🏦 Central banks pivot toward holding rates—insights from the ECB and Fed

📉 Vanguard cuts U.S. equity return forecasts; bonds catch up

🌍 DeepMacro flags expansion in emerging markets

📌 Internal perspectives from Victor Zhou and Elena Zeng on portfolio positioning

📈 How Dantes Outlook is adjusting exposures across equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies

🔗 Join our exclusive client and advisor platform:

DantesOutlook.com/connect

Today, we explore global energy through the lens of Russia, the world’s largest exporter of oil and gas. And to the west is Europe, which is heavily reliant on Russian gas supplies. According to some estimates, Russia is earning roughly $500 million per day on oil and another $400 million on gas all together.

But gas flows from Russia to Europe were already declining into the Q4 heating season last year. Flows flattened out earlier this year, and are  now ticking downward.

To help us understand the Russia/EU gas market, we turn to Nadia Kazakova, an analyst at Renaissance Energy Advisors (REA). Nadia is an expert in this field with prior roles at JP Morgan and Saxo Bank. She also provides in depth analysis on operating stats from Gazprom, Russia’s majority state-owned energy company.

On this show, we discussed:

• Russia’s importance in the global and EU oil and gas markets
• The buildup of gas fields and a vast pipeline network from Siberia and throughout Eastern Europe
• Gazprom's growing influence on EU gas supply, and its efforts to go downstream to capture additional margin
• The significance of Gazprom's November export cut to the EU, stemming from the Nordstream pipeline debacle
• Supply mix from Norway, Algeria and US LNG
• Expectations for further export reductions from Gazprom, below its annual output target
• The new system of ruble payments – its complexity and implications for sanctions and long-term contracts
• New evidence that Gazprom is already cutting back volumes to non-compliant customers
• Future price stabilization or volatility, and what to monitor going forward

Most price signals have extended into overbought territory, although pullbacks could be temporary over the next quarter. Elsewhere, metals have stabilized and  oversold signals could present buying opportunities. 

Trading performance was positive in Q1, built on the success of Q4. Short palladium and long soybean oil were the  best performing trades, while sharp moves in wheat and oil detracted from overall gains. At times, volatility can lead to frequent or contradictory signals. 

Evidently, returns across commodities are not equal. At times, there is wide divergence between sectors such as oil/gas, agriculture and metals. That means the risk of a core long position can be offset with tactical long/short positions in specific commodities.

​For now, here is our base-case into Q2:

• The copper/gold ratio, a gauge for risk-on/risk-off, is stuck in a resistance range, similar to what occurred in 2017-2018 when market volatility increased.
• WTI Crude Oil broke above a decade-long resistance level at $105/bbl and faces stronger resistance near the 2008 price high at $147/bbl-$150/bbl.
• The recent decline in stocks relative to commodities is starting to stabilize, although failure to hold a decade-long uptrend indicates further downside in the ratio, especially if bond yields continue to rise.

Visit www.danteesoutlook.com for more info.