SQM Research's Louis Christopher offers an insightful breakdown on the State of the Market in Sydney for 2025. We unpack why Sydney’s 2025 property market rose overall yet lost steam late in the year.

• three rate cuts then a CPI shock reframing expectations
• supply targets missing by a wide margin
• electricity prices driving inflation and sentiment
• APRA’s soft investor caps in hotter non‑Sydney markets
• migration outpacing new dwellings and lifting rents
• vacancies near 1% and rental affordability strain
• data integrity issues with auction benchmarks
• underquoting eroding trust and fair competition
• first‑home buyer schemes and high‑LVR risk
• late‑year weakness in mid and top‑end Sydney
• unemployment risk and the spectre of stagflation

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Hosts Ciaran O’Brien and Peter O’Malley wrap up a year where rate cuts calmed mortgage distress, yet inflation quietly returned through energy, services, and daily essentials. As AI reshapes jobs, rental markets hold steady, and policy reforms tighten compliance, we reflect on what defined 2025 — and what’s next for Sydney’s property landscape.

We also discuss:

• How rate cuts removed forced selling and lifted sentiment
• Inflation’s reacceleration through energy and service sectors
• Unemployment edging up as AI drives underemployment
• The tension between return-to-office mandates and automation risk
• Public sector hiring cushioning private sector softness
• First-home buyer incentives pulling forward demand
• Migration maintaining pressure on housing and rentals
• Rental conditions steady but poised for another upswing
• Investors chasing yield outside inner Sydney markets
• Tougher penalties and audits reshaping underquoting practices
• Reserve-price disclosure proposals threatening the auction model
• Vendor liability flagged as the missing accountability link

From all of us at Current Market Insights — Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year. We’ll see you in 2026.

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Hosts Ciaran O’Brien and Peter O’Malley break down Sydney’s late-year property trends — where prices keep climbing even as auction heat fades. With migration pressure, infrastructure investment, and rate movements all pulling the market in different directions, we map what’s driving demand and how to plan your next move.

We also discuss:

• Why December 2025 is shaping stronger than last year’s market
• How three rate cuts have lifted confidence — but not single-handedly
• Western Sydney’s buyer surge driven by major infrastructure rollouts
• Migration pressure continuing to outpace housing supply
• Inflation risks and the RBA’s warnings on potential rate reversals
• Inner-city apartments emerging as contrarian value plays
• Auction clearance rates dipping as volumes reach seasonal highs
• Stock levels tightening into late December and January
• Vendor strategy: list when others pause to capture buyer attention
• Investor takeaway: follow infrastructure and scarcity for long-term gains

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Hosts Ciaran O'Brien and Peter O'Malley unpack how to choose a property manager who genuinely protects your asset — not one who disappears after signing the agreement. From understanding the difference between a BDM and a true property manager to spotting red flags and compliance traps, this episode lays out clear, practical steps for landlords.

We also discuss:

• Why you should always meet the person who will actually manage your property
• The difference between sales-oriented BDMs and day-to-day property managers
• Warning signs of a “tenant’s champion” mindset that undermines owners
• How to assess arrears processes, performance metrics, and communication standards
• What to ask when checking references from current landlords
• Protecting your own home when leasing it out for the first time
• Understanding fair wear and tear versus property damage
• Common compliance pitfalls and the impact of new legislation
• How AI-driven enforcement is changing property management
• Why service fees should go toward management quality, not cold lead generation

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Hosts Ciaran O'Brien and Peter O'Malley unpack why buying before selling snares one in ten property owners — and how to avoid panic discounts, bridging finance blowouts, and stressful settlement timelines. With real examples and proven strategies, they show how to trade uncertainty for control when making your next move.

We also discuss:

• Why appraisals often overpromise and mislead sellers
• How seasonal stock surges shift buyer power and market dynamics
• The dangers of vendor overconfidence and “social proof” pricing traps
• Hidden title, access, and compliance issues that derail sales
• Buying under pressure versus selling under pressure — and which is riskier
• Using long settlements to create time and certainty
• Aligning settlement dates to reduce financial and emotional stress
• The true cost and complexity of bridging finance
• Rent-backs and other set plays that give sellers flexibility

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Hosts Ciaran O'Brien and Peter O'Malley explore why Sydney’s property market continues to defy broader economic headwinds. As unemployment rises and central banks face pressure to balance inflation with growth, we examine how policy shifts, migration, and housing supply gaps are shaping today’s price dynamics.

We also discuss:

• Sydney’s housing resilience despite a softening national economy
• Central banks weighing inflation control against unemployment risks
• Imported inflation and the political pressures shaping RBA decisions
• Immigration settings fuelling demand without addressing skills shortages
• Construction sector strain from labour shortages and accreditation hurdles
• Vendor expectations outpacing genuine buyer depth
• First-home buyer incentives boosting activity at the lower end of the market
• Older walk-up apartments outperforming high-rise developments
• The ripple effect moving buyers across adjacent suburbs
• Investor yield realities and data distortions shaping perception vs. truth

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Hosts Ciaran O'Brien and Peter O'Malley unpack why a seemingly “small” price change can translate into a substantial real-world loss once you factor in stamp duty, agent fees, legal costs, and market timing. Using real examples, they illustrate how the 10% break-even rule plays out and why meaningful tax reform could help unlock better housing mobility.

We also discuss:

• The 10% break-even reality across different market segments
• How stamp duty brackets and bracket creep erode gains
• Real examples of sellers taking losses despite higher sale prices
• What transaction costs you can and can’t control
• How capital gains tax (CGT) discounts and losses actually work
• The difference between tax-free gains on a primary residence vs. investor treatment
• Common media myths vs. the true net financial outcomes
• Who to consult for expert financial and property advice
• How strong agency work behind the scenes adds measurable value to a sale

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Hosts Ciaran O'Brien and Peter O'Malley unpack why a rate hold can still feel like a squeeze for households, even as Sydney’s property market shows firmer prices, mixed clearance rates, and ultra-tight rental conditions. With rezoning plans, first home buyer support, and global risks shaping the outlook, this episode explores the forces driving today’s market.

We also discuss:

• RBA holds rates as the board signals caution on future cuts
• Gold surge and US tariffs raising the risk of imported inflation
• Housing strength playing a central role in monetary policy decisions
• Sydney prices edging up as stale stock starts to move
• Auction volumes rising, with clearance rates holding in the low 50s
• Rental conditions tightening further as arrivals lift and tenants negotiate early
• Investors staying cautious amid soft yields and tax settings
• First home buyer support helping at the entry-level but not B-grade units
• Lending limits on sub-40sqm apartments creating barriers for buyers
• Inner West rezoning approval for 30,000+ dwellings over 15 years
• Delivery risks around construction quality, schools, and infrastructure
• Practical plays for buyers, sellers, tenants, and investors in today’s market

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