Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil: The USDA FAS projects a record 2026/27 crop of 71,900,000 bags, up 14%, while StoneX sees 77,200,000 bags, up 23.9%. The harvest was 97% complete by late August. Cecafé reported record August exports of 4,155,000 bags, up 31% (Arabica up 26%, Robusta up 54%), and green coffee exports for 2026/27 are projected at 49,400,000 bags, nearly 30% above previous records. Full warehouses are forcing farmers to sell stored coffee, adding to price pressure. Risks include El Nino disrupting flowering, excessive rain raising waterlogging and disease concerns, and a post-harvest quality problem that has sharply reduced exchange-grade coffee.
• Vietnam: 2025/26 production is forecast up 6% to a four-year high, and January to August exports rose 13.7%. Average export prices fell 20.4%, squeezing margins. Heavy pre-harvest rain could hurt quality, delay harvesting, and encourage fungal disease.
• Colombia: Recent production is down about 17% due to earlier adverse weather, providing a bullish element. A 7.4 magnitude earthquake caused disruptions, but operations have partly resumed and export routes through Buenaventura remain open.
• Indonesia: Sumatra robusta premiums are fluctuating. Below-average rainfall poses a medium risk to the 2027/28 flowering phase and berry maturation.
• Ethiopia: Exceptionally dry conditions in major growing areas pose a medium risk to cherry development, bean size, and quality ahead of the main harvest.
• Global market: The International Coffee Organization reports the first surplus in five years, and the USDA expects 2026/27 production growth to lift global ending stocks. Low ICE-certified Arabica stocks remain the key bullish factor, while robusta stocks are ample. Technically, Arabica has fallen below major moving averages and support levels, and easing demand leaves no clear catalyst for recovery.

Global Coffee Market Summary: September 20, 2026

• Brazil: Dominance persists, with the record 2026/27 harvest set to flood the market. USDA projects output at 71,900,000 bags, up 14% year on year (47,500,000 bags Arabica, 24,400,000 bags Robusta). Green coffee exports are projected at 49,400,000 bags, nearly 30% higher than last year. Warehouse capacity limits are forcing farmers to sell off previously withheld stocks, countering the narrative of judicious sales management, while quality has slipped, with only 10 to 15% of the current crop meeting exchange grade standards, well below historical norms. Weather has largely supported the outlook, though extraordinary rainfall in key regions poses risk at the flowering stage.
• Vietnam: Robusta production is pressuring prices, with the 2025/26 crop projected up 6% to 1,760,000 tons. January to August exports climbed 13.7% year on year, reflecting a supply glut, though export value fell as average prices dropped to levels not seen since June 2024, with physical market activity also subdued. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture but raises waterlogging risk that could complicate the upcoming harvest.
• Indonesia: A mixed premium picture for Sumatra Robusta across contracts, with severe rainfall deficits compromising flowering initiation, raising risk for the 2027/28 outlook if the dry spell persists.
• Colombia: A bullish counterweight, facing significant supply disruption from a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in major producing regions. Exports have resumed in part with no critical damage to milling facilities, though rolling twelve month production shows a significant downturn.
• Ethiopia: Facing a precarious drought during the crucial cherry development stage, raising concern over near term production potential and requiring close monitoring.

Global Coffee Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Brazil: Anchoring the bearish Arabica sentiment, with August coffee exports up 44.6% year on year to 206,618 tons, the highest monthly volume in eight months, driving December Arabica prices to a two month low. The 2026/27 harvest is 97% complete (96% for Arabica), slightly behind the five year average (91.9% versus 94.9% a year prior via Cuxipe). USDA FAS expects a record crop of 71,900,000 bags, up 14% year on year (47,500,000 bags Arabica, 24,400,000 bags Robusta), with green exports forecast at 49,400,000 bags, nearly 30% higher. Most warehouses are at full capacity, forcing farmer selling despite price pressure. Weather is mixed, with favorable rains in Minas Gerais aiding flowering but recent heavy rains risking flower abortion and fungal disease, while El Nino may delay September to October flowering rains, threatening the 2026/27 season.
• Colombia: Facing supply challenges after a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Caldas and Risaralda, though partial export resumption via Buenaventura has been reported with no major damage to processing facilities. The FNC recorded a 6.6% rise in exports (valued at USD 6.5 billion in 2025), though rolling twelve month production fell about 17% to 12,400,000 bags on an earlier harvest contraction.
• Vietnam: A bearish supply picture for the Robusta leader, with January to August exports up 13.7% year on year and full year exports projected to grow 17.5% to 1,580,000 tons, though prices have fallen 11.2% despite the volume increase. Heavy rainfall forecasts in the Central Highlands raise flood risk, though conditions currently show moderated stress. The EU deforestation regulation could offer a premium for compliant shipments, potentially boosting export volumes by 8 to 10%.
• Ethiopia: High risk to cherry development amid severe drought, with Oromia and Southern Nations regions seeing significantly below average rainfall, stressing bean filling.
• Indonesia: Drought is raising concerns for the 2027/28 outlook as flowering begins under adverse conditions, threatening uniform and productive flowering.