Global Coffee Market Summary

• Brazil: The USDA FAS projects a record 2026/27 crop of 71,900,000 bags, up 14%, while StoneX sees 77,200,000 bags, up 23.9%. The harvest was 97% complete by late August. Cecafé reported record August exports of 4,155,000 bags, up 31% (Arabica up 26%, Robusta up 54%), and green coffee exports for 2026/27 are projected at 49,400,000 bags, nearly 30% above previous records. Full warehouses are forcing farmers to sell stored coffee, adding to price pressure. Risks include El Nino disrupting flowering, excessive rain raising waterlogging and disease concerns, and a post-harvest quality problem that has sharply reduced exchange-grade coffee.
• Vietnam: 2025/26 production is forecast up 6% to a four-year high, and January to August exports rose 13.7%. Average export prices fell 20.4%, squeezing margins. Heavy pre-harvest rain could hurt quality, delay harvesting, and encourage fungal disease.
• Colombia: Recent production is down about 17% due to earlier adverse weather, providing a bullish element. A 7.4 magnitude earthquake caused disruptions, but operations have partly resumed and export routes through Buenaventura remain open.
• Indonesia: Sumatra robusta premiums are fluctuating. Below-average rainfall poses a medium risk to the 2027/28 flowering phase and berry maturation.
• Ethiopia: Exceptionally dry conditions in major growing areas pose a medium risk to cherry development, bean size, and quality ahead of the main harvest.
• Global market: The International Coffee Organization reports the first surplus in five years, and the USDA expects 2026/27 production growth to lift global ending stocks. Low ICE-certified Arabica stocks remain the key bullish factor, while robusta stocks are ample. Technically, Arabica has fallen below major moving averages and support levels, and easing demand leaves no clear catalyst for recovery.