Global Coffee Market Summary: September 13, 2026

• Brazil: Anchoring the bearish Arabica sentiment, with August coffee exports up 44.6% year on year to 206,618 tons, the highest monthly volume in eight months, driving December Arabica prices to a two month low. The 2026/27 harvest is 97% complete (96% for Arabica), slightly behind the five year average (91.9% versus 94.9% a year prior via Cuxipe). USDA FAS expects a record crop of 71,900,000 bags, up 14% year on year (47,500,000 bags Arabica, 24,400,000 bags Robusta), with green exports forecast at 49,400,000 bags, nearly 30% higher. Most warehouses are at full capacity, forcing farmer selling despite price pressure. Weather is mixed, with favorable rains in Minas Gerais aiding flowering but recent heavy rains risking flower abortion and fungal disease, while El Nino may delay September to October flowering rains, threatening the 2026/27 season.
• Colombia: Facing supply challenges after a 7.4 magnitude earthquake in Caldas and Risaralda, though partial export resumption via Buenaventura has been reported with no major damage to processing facilities. The FNC recorded a 6.6% rise in exports (valued at USD 6.5 billion in 2025), though rolling twelve month production fell about 17% to 12,400,000 bags on an earlier harvest contraction.
• Vietnam: A bearish supply picture for the Robusta leader, with January to August exports up 13.7% year on year and full year exports projected to grow 17.5% to 1,580,000 tons, though prices have fallen 11.2% despite the volume increase. Heavy rainfall forecasts in the Central Highlands raise flood risk, though conditions currently show moderated stress. The EU deforestation regulation could offer a premium for compliant shipments, potentially boosting export volumes by 8 to 10%.
• Ethiopia: High risk to cherry development amid severe drought, with Oromia and Southern Nations regions seeing significantly below average rainfall, stressing bean filling.
• Indonesia: Drought is raising concerns for the 2027/28 outlook as flowering begins under adverse conditions, threatening uniform and productive flowering.