For a while, we are going to be returning periodically to the question of how the economy, markets, and inflation respond to economic policy volatility. In this episode, the Inflation Guy talks about some mildly disturbing signs that manufacturing leadership may not be as adaptable as it once was, and as he had previously assumed. And that's all bad news, both from an economic fragility standpoint (it could mean the garden-variety recession the Inflation Guy has been talking about will be something more like a Hanging Gardens of Babylon-variety recession) and from an inflationary standpoint (fragility on the supply side makes upward thrusts in inflation more normal). Hopefully, his prior assumptions were right and these concerns are misplaced...but they should be considered.

NOTES

“Mass layoffs in trucking and retail coming – Apollo” https://www.freightwaves.com/news/mass-layoffs-in-trucking-and-retail-are-coming-apollo

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey (April) https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2504

Ep. 140: White Whale Spotted - Inflation-Linked Cash - the USDi Coin: https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-140-white-whale-spotted-inflation-linked-cash-the-usdi-coin/

Blog for last month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2025)” (https://inflationguy.podbean.com/e/ep-139-this-months-cpi-report-%e2%80%93-uncertainty-reigns/ )

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