The Inflation Guy starts with a general comment on where markets are and what to look for as we contemplate the next move. But the really meaty bit is where he talks about recent Fed research (finally concluding what the Inflation Guy has been telling you for years) about the skewness of the distribution of price changes in the CPI suggesting that maybe there is something more going on than a placid and obedient return to 2%...

NOTES

Is the Inflation Process in Advanced Economies Different After the Pandemic? (https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/is-the-inflation-process-in-advanced-economies-different-after-the-pandemic-20260330.html)

Skewness warrants caution as Trimmed Mean PCE inflation eases (https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0416)

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (March 2026)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2026/04/10/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-march-2026/)

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An inflation-indexed currency you can now mint from our website: https://usdicoin.com/

Thank you for all the cards and letters. The Inflation Guy dropped in today, to talk about the AI Menace as well as yesterday's CPI report and the near-term trajectory of inflation. This is not a return to a full-time podcasting schedule, but it's at least a positive sign!

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (February 2026)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2026/03/11/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-february-2026/ )

Apollo-sourced chart on New Business Formation: https://inflationguy.blog/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/apollo-newbiz-formation-chart.jpg

Robert J. Shiller: Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events (https://amzn.to/4lqIXFv)

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It's hard to believe we waited two months for that. The Inflation Guy pulls no punches here. Although he is a serious defender of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' CPI team, he did not mince words in talking about today's report. But it's still data, and the IG tells you what it means.

NOTES

Blog for this month’s CPI: “Inflation Guy’s CPI Summary (November 2025)” (https://inflationguy.blog/2025/12/18/inflation-guys-cpi-summary-november-2025/ )

Blog on hedonic adjustment “Why Hedonic Adjustment in the CPI Shouldn’t Tick You Off” https://inflationguy.blog/2025/12/10/why-hedonic-adjustment-in-the-cpi-shouldnt-tick-you-off/

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An inflation-indexed currency you can now mint from our website: https://usdicoin.com/