エピソード

  • WSJ Aug 6 Deep Dive: Is Trump Manipulating Economic Data?
    2025/08/06

    Fed Governor resigns early, BLS chief fired after July services PMI drops to 50.1. Palantir revenue hits $1B with 600% stock surge, GLP-1 drugs fall to $499/month, 10M children in poverty. Tariff threats reach 250%, Caterpillar faces $1.5B loss. New Rochelle housing model limits rent growth to 1.6%.

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    5 分
  • AI vs Profits: Goldman Exposes Tech Titans' Strategic Gamble
    2025/08/06

    Goldman Sachs' August 6 bombshell report exposes China's internet giants facing their biggest profit crisis since Q2 2022, with sector-wide earnings down 10% while AI cloud services surge 23%. The Big Three—Alibaba, Meituan, JD—are hemorrhaging profits (16%-70% decline) as they pour 30B+ yuan into instant delivery warfare. Tencent emerges victorious with 15% profit growth fueled by Delta Force's 9B yuan blockbuster and AI innovations. Market dynamics shift from duopoly dominance to three-way battle as competition intensity peaks in September quarter.

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    5 分
  • Can Copper Spread Recover After 30% Crash? BofA Unveils Global Arbitrage Play
    2025/08/05

    BofA Securities August report exposes copper tariff turmoil: CME-LME spread collapsed from record 30% to zero in single day as US stockpiled 600kt (40% annual demand). Report identifies LME-CME spread as strongest mean-reversion relationship outside energy pairs. Recommends overweight gasoline, soymeal, precious metals while underweight WTI crude. 16% effective tariff rate reinforces stagflation risks with 6-month positive outlook for Brent and industrial metals.

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    6 分
  • Developer Stocks Crash 6%!Goldman Aug Report Unveils Property Market's Triple Threat
    2025/08/05

    Goldman's Aug 5 weekly shows China's Week 31 developer stocks tumbled 6% to historic 0.5x P/B lows with 33% NAV discount. Inventory clearance needs 25.9 months while Politburo omitted stimulus becomes key variable. Tier-1 cities' 6% WoW sales growth shows resilience vs central/western -6% decline deepening divergence. CIFI bucked trend with -1% drop earning buy rating.

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    5 分
  • WSJ Aug 5 Analysis: AI Boom's Cash Flow Crisis & Data Credibility Collapse
    2025/08/05

    U.S. employment data credibility faces political threats while Big Tech AI investments drive 73% profit growth but 30% free cash flow decline. Musk receives $23.7B compensation package amid tariff uncertainty hampering corporate investments. Academic "paper mills" threaten research integrity as Gen Z workplace anxiety intensifies. Colorectal cancer screening age lowered to 45, boosting early detection by 62%.

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    5 分
  • Conglomerate Evolution or Breakup? Goldman's August Pick on Jardine's Transformation Path
    2025/08/04

    Goldman Sachs released August APAC Conviction List update on Aug 3, adding Jardine Matheson and Namura Shipbuilding. Jardine targets $68.10 with 21.7% upside, 38% NAV discount offers revaluation opportunity. PAG partner Lincoln Pan appointment drives portfolio review, expecting 15%/9% earnings growth in FY25/26. Namura targets ¥3,700 with 18.8% upside, benefiting from geopolitical reshaping and US tariffs on China shipbuilding, Japan's market share rising from 10% to 13%. Goldman upgrades capital goods, tech hardware to overweight, favors North Asia with six alpha themes.

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    5 分
  • Fed's Immigration Theory Wrong? UBS Exposes Economic Truth
    2025/08/04

    UBS latest report challenges Fed Chair Powell's "immigration shock" narrative on US economic slowdown. Data reveals weakness stems from demand shortfall, not population decline, with GDP growth at mere 1.2% annualized and unemployment rising to 4.25%. New tariffs expected to push core PCE inflation to 3.4% while dragging growth by 0.1-0.2pp. UBS forecasts Fed will cut rates 25bps in September, totaling 100bps by year-end.

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    6 分
  • WSJ Digest Aug 4: AI Upends Consulting, Tariffs Disrupt Trade
    2025/08/04

    This edition highlights five key trends: (1) Despite a low 4.2% unemployment rate, long-term joblessness hits a multi-year high; (2) A sudden M&A boom sees mega-deals flourish amid political tailwinds; (3) AI radically transforms McKinsey’s operations, triggering layoffs and new work models; (4) The US shocks Switzerland with a 39% tariff, fueling global trade uncertainty; (5) Earnings from giants like Berkshire and Boeing reveal profit strain and operational restructuring.

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    5 分