『Your Fall Financial Fire Drill』のカバーアート

Your Fall Financial Fire Drill

Your Fall Financial Fire Drill

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 As we head into fall, we take the opportunity to run a financial "fire drill"—not because we expect a crisis, but because we know volatility is inevitable. This episode is all about preparation: emotionally and strategically. Ed Lambert, Alex Cabot, and Jag kick things off with some seasonal banter, but quickly dive into why fall is a natural time to reassess our portfolios and our mindset around investing.Ed begins by reminding us that even in strong years, the market doesn’t move in a straight line. The S&P 500 typically sees multiple 5% dips annually and about a 10% correction every year or two. But those drops aren’t signs of failure—they’re part of the process. He walks us through some of the scariest moments of the last 15 years—like the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, the COVID crash of 2020, and the recent sharp drop in April 2025—highlighting how each time, the market rebounded. The key, he says, is staying the course and not reacting emotionally. Emotional decisions—especially ones made in fear—almost always lead to poor outcomes.We focus heavily on the idea that emotional preparation is just as important as strategic allocation. Ed makes the point that volatility is the price of admission for long-term growth. He urges listeners to “zoom out” and look at the long-term trajectory of the market, where short-term declines barely register. Since 1980, despite multiple downturns, the market has averaged nearly 10% returns annually.Alex then picks up the second half of the fire drill analogy—portfolio preparation. He compares asset allocation to a smoke detector: you want it functioning before there's smoke. He explains that the right asset mix comes from evaluating three factors—your goals, your timeframe, and your risk tolerance. Importantly, risk tolerance has both a financial and emotional component, and the two don’t always align. He gives practical examples for how these factors influence portfolio design—contrasting a 25-year-old saving for retirement with someone needing cash in six months for a car purchase.He also stresses the need to regularly rebalance portfolios. Just like a smoke detector can get out of sync, so can an asset allocation if left unattended. Ignoring this can lead to a portfolio that doesn't reflect your needs or goals. Whether it’s a 5% dip or a 25% drawdown, a well-built and actively managed allocation keeps investors steady. Alex closes with an important reminder: every downturn in history has ended in recovery. The question isn’t if volatility will come, but when—and how prepared we’ll be.Have you ever had a smoke detector battery die in the middle of the night? We swap stories about that to cement our analogy. You can always email Alex and Ed at info@birchrunfinancial.com or give them a call at 484-395-2190.Or visit them on the web at https://www.birchrunfinancial.com/Alex and Ed's Book: Mastering The Money Mind: https://www.amazon.com/Mastering-Money-Mind-Thinking-Personal/dp/1544530536 Any opinions are those of Ed Lambert Alex Cabot, financial advisors, RJFS, and Jon Gay, and not necessarily those of RJFS or Raymond James. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. There is no assurance any of the trends mentioned will continue or forecasts will occur. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but Raymond James does not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. The examples throughout this material are for illustrative purposes only. Raymond James does not provide tax or legal services. Please discuss these matters with the appropriate professional. Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. CDs are insured by the FDIC and offer a fixed rate of return, whereas the return and principal value of investment securities fluctuate with changes in market conditions. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. Stock Market. Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. This information is not intended as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security referred to herein. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions. International investing involves special risks, including currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic volatility. There is ...
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