Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Why A Government Reopening Could Spark Ag And Trade
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Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Why A Government Reopening Could Spark Ag And Trade
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We track a likely end to the shutdown, the return of critical USDA data, and fresh China commitments that pushed soybeans out of a grinding range. Rates, tariffs, and biofuel policy collide with export flows to shape a fragile but improving demand story.
• shutdown pressure from elections and program timing
• partial USDA reopenings and FSA payment backlogs
• NASS crop production and WASDE returning mid November
• Fed uncertainty keeps dollar firm and bonds soft
• soybean rally on China purchase floors and port relief
• tariff tweaks, rare earth delay, and export logistics
• $13bn CCC shift toward trade aid and formula impacts
• biofuels, RFS volumes, and 45Z as domestic demand engine
• cattle volatility, Argentine beef optics, and sticky retail prices
• FMC slide as a warning for inputs and LATAM credit
• basis improvements at PNW and NOLA as demand signal
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Thank you, Tommy G