Why Trump’s “Deal of the Century” Will Not Work — A Realist Reading
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Why Trump’s “Deal of the Century” Will Not Work — A Realist Reading
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This text examines why Donald Trump’s proposed “Deal of the Century” for Gaza is unlikely to succeed from a realist perspective in international relations. Political theorist John Mearsheimer argues that peace agreements only work when the involved parties see more benefit in cooperation than in continued conflict, but Israel and Hamas still lack shared interests, making compromise improbable. Domestic political pressures in both societies and the disruptive influence of regional actors like Iran further undermine any potential for a lasting deal. While realism effectively explains these obstacles, it often overlooks humanitarian concerns, questions of legitimacy, and internal factional dynamics that shape outcomes. As a result, sweeping peace plans are unrealistic, and the most plausible way forward lies in gradual, incentive-based measures such as local ceasefires, humanitarian aid tied to conditions, and phased prisoner exchanges. Ultimately, the text suggests that lasting peace will emerge not from grand announcements but from incremental, carefully structured steps that slowly shift the strategic calculations of all parties involved.