In this Venture Declassified Quick Tip, the hosts tackle one of the most common—and most misleading—metrics in startup updates: pipeline. Mike, Ben, and Jacob explain why experienced investors are skeptical of massive pipeline numbers at the pre-seed and seed stages, and what founders can do to present a more credible picture of future revenue. It's a quick lesson in separating real traction from wishful thinking.

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Mike Kelly

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Ben Pidgeon

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Jacob Schpok

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• Elevate Ventures

Hear more interviews and stories like this one at www.VentureDeclassified.com

The information provided on the show is not intended to be investment advice and should not be relied upon as such. The investors on today’s episode are providing their opinions based on their own assessment of the businesses or topics presented. Those opinions should not be considered professional investment advice. If they start up pitched as a part of this episode, it is for informational purposes only and is neither an offer to purchase nor a solicitation of an offer to sell, subscribe for or buy any securities.

In this special crossover episode of Venture Declassified, Mike Kelly, Ben Pidgeon, and Jacob Schpok join Grant Chapman on the Hard Tech Podcast to tackle a question many angel investors wrestle with: how should you evaluate hard tech opportunities differently from software companies?

The discussion explores how investors should think about technical expertise, scalability, and the transition from a promising prototype to a manufacturable product. Along the way, the hosts compare the unique risks of software and hardware, debating whether hard tech is truly less nimble—or simply misunderstood by investors who are more familiar with SaaS.

The episode ultimately turns into a broader conversation about investor psychology, founder quality, and the tradeoffs between risk and reward. While hardware companies often require more capital and patience upfront, the group discusses why they can benefit from deeper competitive moats, stronger acquisition dynamics, and more defensible technology. For investors looking beyond software, this episode offers a candid look at what makes hard tech both challenging and compelling.

To hear more from Grant Chapman and explore additional conversations on hardware innovation, startups, and product development, visit the Hard Tech Podcast at thehardtechpodcast.com

Key Topics

• How hard tech differs from software at the pre-seed, seed, and Series A stages

• The transition from proving a concept to scaling manufacturing

• Technical risk versus execution risk in hardware and software companies

• The role of customer discovery before significant capital is committed

• Acquisition dynamics and the strategic value of hardware intellectual property

• Capital efficiency, power-law investing, and portfolio construction considerations

Connect

Mike Kelly

• LinkedIn

• Website

• Developer Town

Ben Pidgeon

• LinkedIn

• VisionTech

Jacob Schpok

• LinkedIn

• Elevate Ventures

Hear more interviews and stories like this one at www.VentureDeclassified.com

The information provided on the show is not intended to be investment advice and should not be relied upon as such. The investors on today’s episode are providing their opinions based on their own assessment of the businesses or topics presented. Those opinions should not be considered professional investment advice. If they start up pitched as a part of this episode, it is for informational purposes only and is neither an offer to purchase nor a solicitation of an offer to sell, subscribe for or buy any securities.

Episode Summary

In this episode of Venture Declassified, Mike Kelly, Ben Pidgeon, and Jacob Schpok tackle one of the murkier concepts in startup investing: mark-to-market valuations. What starts as a conversation about portfolio reporting quickly turns into a candid debate about spreadsheets, “black magic,” and the uncomfortable reality that startup valuations are often far more subjective than investors would like to admit.

The hosts break down how mark-to-market works in venture investing, why new financing rounds are typically used as valuation anchors, and how institutional investors think about portfolio appreciation before an actual exit ever occurs. Along the way, they unpack the tension between reporting optimistic numbers and staying grounded in reality—especially when insider-led rounds, soft pricing, or struggling companies muddy the picture.

But the conversation goes beyond valuation math. The group also explores the role of sentiment analysis, investor psychology, and pattern recognition when evaluating portfolio health over time. From “sad face” companies with strong markups to founders who keep promising a Series A “six months away” for years, the episode offers an honest look at how experienced investors separate signal from noise when deciding where to keep deploying capital.

Key Topics

• What “mark-to-market” actually means in startup investing

• Why venture valuations are fundamentally different from public markets

• The role financing events play in startup price discovery

• How insider-led rounds can distort portfolio valuations

• Different approaches to handling SAFEs and convertible notes in reporting

• Why some investors pair valuation tracking with sentiment analysis

• The importance of portfolio construction versus evaluating a single deal

• Using valuation trends as one signal—not the whole story—when making follow-on decisions

Connect

Mike Kelly

• LinkedIn

• Website

• Developer Town

Ben Pidgeon

• LinkedIn

• VisionTech

Jacob Schpok

• LinkedIn

• Elevate Ventures

Hear more interviews and stories like this one at www.VentureDeclassified.com

The information provided on the show is not intended to be investment advice and should not be relied upon as such. The investors on today’s episode are providing their opinions based on their own assessment of the businesses or topics presented. Those opinions should not be considered professional investment advice. If they start up pitched as a part of this episode, it is for informational purposes only and is neither an offer to purchase nor a solicitation of an offer to sell, subscribe for or buy any securities.