US India Trade Tensions Simmer as Trump Weighs Tariff Deal Ahead of July 9 Deadline Amid Economic Uncertainty
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US India Trade Tensions Simmer as Trump Weighs Tariff Deal Ahead of July 9 Deadline Amid Economic Uncertainty
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Listeners, today’s biggest headline is the ongoing tariff tension between the United States and India under President Donald Trump’s new trade agenda. Back in April, Trump invoked the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose a baseline 10 percent tariff on imports from all countries, including India. This sweeping move took effect on April 5, with the administration justifying it as a measure against long-standing trade imbalances and non-reciprocal practices, which Trump called a national emergency at a White House address.
While country-specific reciprocal tariffs were initially announced—citing a 26 to 27 percent tariff on Indian goods—the administration later paused these higher rates for 90 days starting April 9. For now, nearly all imports from India face a 10 percent tariff, matching the blanket rate for most US trading partners except China and Hong Kong, whose goods bear a much steeper 30 percent levy. However, listeners should note that Trump’s team has said these new US tariffs could be adjusted again after the pause period, hinting at future unpredictability.
Despite this uncertainty, India and the US have been pushing for a trade deal to blunt the impact of these tariffs. India, now the world’s fourth-largest economy and soon to be third, began negotiations with Washington in February. Talks have covered agricultural trade, energy imports, and the reduction of non-tariff barriers. In late April, Vice President JD Vance visited New Delhi to announce the finalization of negotiation terms, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said a deal may be imminent. However, as of today, the first phase of a US-India trade agreement is ready but still needs Trump’s personal signoff to take effect before the July 9 deadline. Trade watchers expect the deal to mirror recent US agreements with the UK and Vietnam, where the 10 percent baseline tariff was retained but some sector-specific reductions were made.
For Indian exporters, the news is a mixed bag. According to ClearTax, the 2025 US tariffs hit sectors like automobiles, auto parts, steel, and aluminum with specific 25 percent rates, while most other goods see a 10 percent levy under the general regime. Pharmaceuticals and semiconductors are reportedly exempt, and the impact on overall Indian exports is cushioned by sectoral diversification and relative market share—only a small fraction of India’s GDP is at direct risk.
With US-India trade in focus and the July 9 tariff deadline looming, listeners should stay tuned for developments on whether Trump will approve the trade pact and what it will mean for cross-border business, supply chains, and prospects for tariff relief.
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