US Considers Trade Boost with India as Reciprocal Tariffs Loom, Bilateral Agreement Negotiations Gain Momentum
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US Considers Trade Boost with India as Reciprocal Tariffs Loom, Bilateral Agreement Negotiations Gain Momentum
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President Donald Trump announced late yesterday that he plans to "increase trade substantially" with India and Pakistan following their recent ceasefire agreement. This statement comes amid ongoing tensions between the two South Asian nations, though both sides have accused each other of violating the truce since it was announced.
The announcement represents a potential shift in the tariff landscape that has been evolving since April. Currently, India faces a planned 27% reciprocal tariff from the United States, which was initially scheduled to take effect on April 9th but has been delayed until July 9th, 2025. This is part of Trump's broader tariff strategy announced on what he called "Liberation Day" (April 2nd).
The US administration has placed most country-specific reciprocal tariffs on pause, implementing instead a flat 10% tariff on imports from all countries (with China and Hong Kong being notable exceptions at 125%). However, India remains on the list for the delayed 27% rate coming in July.
Trade relations between the two countries have been strained due to significant imbalances. India maintains one of the highest average applied tariff rates among major economies at 17%, compared to the US rate of just 3.3%. For agricultural products, the gap is even wider with India at 39% versus the US at 5%.
The Office of the US Trade Representative highlighted these disparities in its annual National Trade Estimate Report released on March 31st. Despite these challenges, experts note that the impact on India's exports may be limited since only 18% of India's total exports go to the US, with automobiles and electronics—sectors most affected by the tariffs—comprising a relatively small portion of that trade.
Pharmaceuticals, which represent 10% of India's exports to the US, remain exempt from the new tariffs, providing some cushion for bilateral trade. The US and India have also established Terms of Reference for a potential bilateral trade agreement, which could address these imbalances in the future.
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