Power shifts quietly, until it doesn’t. In this episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Cem Karsan are joined by Adam Rozencwajg to trace the slow fracture of a system built on leverage, politics, and belief. From the echo of LBJ’s confrontation with the Fed to today’s invisible coercions, they explore how monetary regimes die, not in crisis, but in exhaustion. Inflation returns as behavior, debt becomes geometry, and commodities reclaim their voice. Through the lenses of shale decline, Venezuela’s unrealized oil, and the steady ascent of gold, this conversation reveals a cycle completing itself. The story isn’t new. Only the setting has changed.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Follow Adam on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Introduction

03:12 - The rise of carry trades and the rhythm of global financial cycles

08:44 - Political pressure, Fed history, and lessons from past monetary regimes

13:47 - The end of carry, the dawn of stagflation, and the return of real assets

20:47 - Inflation’s return, debt dynamics, and the coming shift in the monetary system

27:33 - Gold, negative real rates, and the psychology of inflation

34:57 - The debt spiral, liquidity traps, and the quiet monetization of risk

41:40 - Energy policy, shale decline, and the politics of “Drill Baby Drill”

49:10 - Venezuela’s oil chessboard and the geopolitical struggle...

Dave Druz spent six months living with Ed Seykota - not shadowing a trading system, but watching a way of being. In this bonus episode, he shares what that experience revealed: a style built on instinct, pattern, and total psychological clarity. No screens. No signals. Just presence. Dave tried to trade that way himself - made 300%, unraveled, and walked away. What emerges is less a portrait of Seykota than a meditation on the limits of imitation, the pressure of performance, and the discipline it takes to trade like yourself - especially after witnessing someone who doesn’t.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:21 - Introduction to part 2

02:57 - Anecdotes from Druz' time working with Ed Seykota

06:46 - The best trader the world has ever seen

17:13 - The optimal bet size

21:24 - What Druz learned from working with Seykota

25:45 - Key lessons for managing drawdowns

27:57 - How does one gets to become an apprentice of Ed Seykota

33:00 - Living with Ed Seykota

35:19 - Seykota's 10.000 dollar cookie mania

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following...

As equity markets grind higher and trend strategies navigate sharp reversals, Moritz Siebert welcomes Nick Baltas of Goldman Sachs for a conversation that moves beyond performance to examine structure. Together they unpack the machinery of the $1.3 trillion QIS industry - from index design and client behavior to the subtle forces shaping capacity and crowding. They discuss how trading speed has become a key axis of dispersion, why volatility remains the hidden cost in systematic portfolios, and what resilience in markets might really be masking. This is not just about strategy. It’s about how products scale, and how ideas hold.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Nick on Twitter.

Follow Moritz on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:23 - Moritz opens the show and introduces Nick

01:16 - Nick’s quick life update and setting the tone

02:45 - Market resilience vs. fragility in 2025

04:18 - Performance rundown: CTAs, trend, equities, bonds

06:10 - October reversals: metals and livestock giveback

07:32 - What’s working: equities, gold, copper; sugar shorts

08:58 - Trend speed, April V-shape, and dispersion

10:40 - Position exits, re-entries, and neutral zones

11:55 - How QIS differs and why it’s opaque from the outside

14:40 - How big is QIS? Asset class split and caveats

18:05 - Who uses QIS: from asset owners to hedge

Dave Druz has never told his story... not like this, not anywhere. For over 40 years, he traded quietly, systematically, and on his own terms. No marketing, no headlines, no need to explain. Until now. In this unique conversation with Moritz Seibert, Dave - Ed Seykota’s first apprentice - shares how he built his approach, why he never identified as a trend follower, and what matters when your edge comes from standing opposite commercial hedgers. He explains why portfolio construction outranks entries, why volatility is the price of real risk, and why staying small was a choice, not a limitation. From medicine to markets, from apprenticeship to independence, this isn’t just how he traded - it’s why he stayed silent, and why he’s speaking now.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

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Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Moritz on Twitter.

Read more about David.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:11 - Introduction to Dave Druz

13:50 - Druz' time in the Commodities Corporation

19:14 - How did Druz discover trend following?

23:57 - The core philosophy behind Druz' trend following strategy

28:08 - Who wins and loses in the markets?

37:37 - Determining hedging flows in commodity markets

41:03 - Managing money in trend following

43:40 - How does Druz size a position and get out of it?

45:16 - Coping with a high level of volatility

50:23 - Mitigate drawdown or take the...

Richard Brennan returns this week to explore how markets truly move - not through randomness or rationality, but through impact, feedback, and memory. What begins with a single trade builds into structure, not pattern; alignment, not noise. Drawing from neuroscience and fractal geometry, Rich challenges the idea that markets can be understood without understanding interaction. The episode builds toward a pointed exchange on position sizing - closed equity versus dynamic exposure - not as a technical footnote, but as a reflection of first principles. In a system where the path shapes the outcome, how you define risk... often reveals how you think the world works.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Rich on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00:00 – Welcome to the Systematic Investor Series

00:00:23 – Niels’ intro, show setup, and warm welcome to Rich

00:00:57 – Heatwave down under: context and small talk

00:02:10 – Rich: divided brain, AI vs embodiment, and markets needing rules

00:07:50 – AI’s edge shrinks prediction windows; why that helps trend following

00:10:35 – Gold’s violent selloff; electricity vs oil as the new macro lens

00:14:51 – “Trend heaven”: why the backdrop now looks robust

00:18:12 – Post-GFC compression vs today’s decoupling and trends

00:22:43 – Impact and reflexivity: trades reshape the next trade

00:28:23 – Non-ergodic markets: path dependence beats Gaussian assumptions

00:35:48 – Volatility ≠...

Recorded amid the noise and pulse of the RMC conference in Munich, this episode of U Got Options follows a market learning to see itself anew. Cem Karsan speaks with Keith DeCarlucci on the return of macro discipline through EM carry and the quiet yield of volatility. Patrick Kazley traces the fault lines of diversification, where beta, convexity, and policy now intersect. And Hari Krishnan confronts the uneasy coexistence of human intuition and machine logic in risk. Together, they chart the tension between structure and surprise - a world still trading on old instincts, but guided by new intelligence.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Cem on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:00 - Opening and introductions

01:29 - Overview of guests and themes: EM, volatility, and AI

03:10 - Keith DeCarlucci on EM FX, commodities, and volatility trades

14:13 - Relative value in equity vol and tail-hedging strategies

21:20 - Patrick Casley on portfolio construction and convexity

32:24 - Reassessing 60/40, nominal illusion, and macro correlations

39:44 - The new regime: long assets vs limited diversifiers

44:39 - Hari Krishnan on AI, options, and the future of volatility

56:06 - Upside skew, real assets, and structural market shifts

01:05:21 - Closing remarks and disclaimers

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Nigol Koulajian, founder of AlphaQuest rejoins Niels and Alan for a conversation about markets shaped less by fundamentals than by perception. As political influence deepens and volatility is managed rather than discovered, traditional risk signals lose meaning. Sharpe ratios climb not through edge, but through exposure to hidden fragilities. Diversification is narrowing. And while systematic strategies continue to hold their line, the forces around them are shifting - slowly, structurally, and with consequences. This episode is about recognizing imbalance in real time, resisting the comfort of consensus, and asking whether today’s apparent stability is masking tomorrow’s risk.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Episode TimeStamps:

00:32 - Introduction to our special guest

01:57 - How did the economy end up the way it is today?

09:15 - Is it just a cycle?

19:46 - What is the end game?

23:47 - A short masterclass on skew and convexity

31:45 - How trend following has changed over time

39:18 - Should you optimize your portfolio from a short or long term perspective?

45:19 - How Nigol navigates the strong headwinds for CTAs

53:04 - Turning the risk of pod shops into opportunities

56:06 - When will we revert to a more "normal" environment?

Copyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

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PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment...

Maurice Obstfeld joins Alan Dunne for a clear-eyed look at how the foundations of the global monetary system are shifting - and why much of the world is quietly preparing for a future without a stable dollar anchor. Drawing on decades in policy and research, Obstfeld explains how tariffs, fiscal dominance, and political interference are eroding the norms that once held the system together. They discuss the risk of fragmentation, the creeping politicization of the Fed, and why trust - not theory - is the real currency at stake. This is a conversation about power, credibility, and what happens when both start to slip.

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50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Read more about Maurice here.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:18 - Introduction to Maurice Obstfeld

05:26 - The role and evolution of the International Monetary Fund (IMF)

08:14 - What has been the rationale for tariffs, and how has it impacted the economy?

11:13 - Has the viewpoint on tariffs shifted?

18:42 - How the changing monetary policy could undermine the dollar

27:19 - Does an alternative to the dollar even exist?

29:50 - What are the implications of moving away from the dollar?

34:20 - A possible financial repression incoming?

36:25 - The impact of an unusual approach to policy making domestically

39:16 - A fork in the road for the...