Hey there,

Incentives are a powerful force. That’s why we spend so much time trapped in the prisoner’s dilemma and make terrible decisions for ourselves and society as a whole.

The solution in crime? A Mob Boss.

It turns out that the same may be true in politics.

The Mob Boss Solution

What's the solution to this dilemma?

Organized crime figured this out long ago. The mob boss creates an external threat that overrides the individual incentives to defect:

"The mob boss comes in and says, 'Hey, I'll tell you what, if you talk, I'm gonna kill you. It doesn't matter what the police say, you're just gonna be dead.' So you're just gonna have to keep your mouth shut."

This powerful external force creates a new equilibrium in which silence becomes the only viable option. The threat completely reshapes the incentives.

Common Enemies in American History

This concept extends far beyond crime syndicates and into national politics and unity. Looking at American history from the late 1930s through the 1990s reveals how common enemies served as unifying forces:

World War II Era: The Nazis and Imperial Japan became America's common enemies. This external threat "really unified Americans and created an overwhelming incentive to work together for the national good." The results were remarkable: unprecedented industrial output, escape from the Great Depression, scientific advancement, and ultimately, victory.

Cold War Period: After WWII, the Soviet Union became the new common enemy, again forcing cooperation among Americans. This unity led to the National Defense Act, DARPA (which created the internet), the interstate highway system, major technology investments, and the moon landing.

Like the mob boss in the prisoner's dilemma, these common enemies pushed Americans into a "constructive space" by fundamentally changing the calculation: "Hey, if you go destructive, the Russians are going to win. And that's much worse."

The Power of External Threats

If you are stuck in a Political Prioner’s dilemma, the most effective way to overcome divisive incentives is through a common threat. Without a common threat, we turn on each other.

The other party becomes the threat.

How do we get around this?

We either need a different enemy.

Or we have to change the system.

Get the whole episode here:

https://mastersofinfluence.substack.com/p/when-strategies-collide-game-theorys?r=17a1p