『The Week That Was』のカバーアート

The Week That Was

The Week That Was

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 Executive SummaryThe digital asset market is currently defined by a significant conflict between acute short-term pressures and a rapidly strengthening long-term structural thesis. The dominant near-term narrative is one of macro-induced de-risking, catalyzed by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “hawkish cut” on October 29. This event triggered a sharp price correction, massive institutional outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs totaling approximately $1.15 billion over three days, and the end of Bitcoin’s seven-year “Uptober” winning streak. The market now faces a tense standoff between this negative momentum and Bitcoin’s historically strong November seasonality, creating significant uncertainty.Counterbalancing this price fragility is the accelerating “slow money” thesis, characterized by the deep and methodical integration of digital assets into the global financial system. Key developments underscore this trend: the launch of institution-focused blockchains like Circle’s “Arc” with partners including BlackRock and Goldman Sachs; the emergence of an interbank crypto derivatives market; the expansion of regulated ETPs beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum to include yield-bearing products; and continued corporate treasury adoption by firms like Steak ‘n Shake.Simultaneously, the ecosystem is undergoing critical technological and strategic maturation. Bitcoin Layer-2 networks like Stacks are activating major upgrades that enhance programmability and finality, while the mining sector is decoupling from Bitcoin’s price, with its infrastructure now being re-evaluated for its strategic value to the high-growth AI industry. The global regulatory landscape continues to solidify, providing clearer frameworks in Europe and the UK, even as the U.S. contends with political gridlock. The immediate outlook is a stalemate, where the market awaits a catalyst to resolve the divergence between short-term institutional risk reduction and steady, long-term structural growth.--------------------------------------------------------------------------------Market Dynamics: A Tale of Two NarrativesThe market’s recent performance is best understood as a collision between two opposing forces: the immediate, reactive “fast money” driven by macroeconomic signals, and the persistent, foundational “slow money” building long-term value.The Short-Term View: Macro-Driven VolatilityThe final week of October 2025 saw a dramatic reversal in market sentiment, driven almost entirely by macroeconomic developments.• The “Hawkish Cut” Catalyst: On October 29, the U.S. Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point interest rate cut. However, Chair Jerome Powell’s non-committal forward guidance, stating a December cut was “not a foregone conclusion,” was interpreted as a hawkish surprise. This “poured cold water” on markets positioned for sustained monetary easing, triggering a sharp risk-off event across asset classes.• Price Correction and Liquidations: Bitcoin, which had broken out above 115,000onOctober27,swiftlysoldofffromahighof 113,700 to a low near $109,000 following the Fed’s announcement. The deleveraging event caused over $700 million in liquidations across the broader crypto market, affecting more than 151,000 traders.• Reversal in Institutional Flows: The sell-off was amplified by a dramatic reversal in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF flows. After a period of net inflows, the ETFs recorded three consecutive days of significant net outflows, totaling approximately $1.15 billion, demonstrating that institutional capital is highly sensitive to changes in the global liquidity outlook. ◦ October 29 Outflow: $470 million ◦ October 30 Outflow: $488.4 million ◦ October 31 Outflow: $191.6 million• End of “Uptober”: The month concluded with Bitcoin posting an approximate loss of 3.6%, marking its first negative October performance since 2018 and ending a seven-year winning streak. This sets up a conflict between the current weak technical structure and the historical data showing November to be Bitcoin’s strongest month, with an average gain of over 40%.The Long-Term View: The “Slow Money” ThesisWhile short-term price action is volatile, the underlying structural adoption and infrastructure build-out continues unabated, reinforcing the long-term investment case.• Corporate and Treasury Adoption: Fast-food chain Steak ‘n Shake established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, committing to hold all Bitcoin payments received via its Lightning Network integration, which cut its processing fees by about 50%. This follows the continued accumulation strategy of Strategy Inc. (MSTR) and health-tech firm Prenetics Global raising $48 million to expand its own Bitcoin treasury.• Infrastructure Validation: Wall Street analysis of Coinbase’s strong Q3 earnings reflects a view of the company not as a volatile exchange but as a crucial piece of financial market infrastructure.• Real-World ...
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