As we head into 2026, population is no longer just another economic talking point — it has become one of the single most powerful forces reshaping Canadian real estate & the economy. For the first time in modern history, Canada’s population is shrinking, and the effects are immediate and profound. Ontario and British Columbia — the country’s largest and most expensive markets — are now posting negative annual population growth for the first time ever. After years of record inflows, the pendulum has swung sharply in the opposite direction.

Non-permanent residents are leaving in record numbers, permanent residents are quietly exiting the country at near-historic highs, and government targets suggest this outflow may continue for the next two years. The last time Canada experienced a demographic shock, it was driven by rapid population acceleration — and it rewrote housing dynamics overnight. Now we are watching the same type of historic shift, only in reverse, and the consequences are every bit as significant.

Those consequences are already showing up in the housing market. Canada is delivering the largest volume of purpose-built rental construction in history at the exact moment demand is softening. Rental inventory is surging, vacancy rates are climbing, incentives are returning, and the national market is clearly moving toward cheaper, more competitive rents.

That may temporarily make renting feel like the smarter financial move, but history is unequivocal: the long-term wealth gap between renters and owners remains enormous, and demographic shifts don’t change that reality.

Nowhere is this more evident than in Toronto, where the condo market has all but stalled — sales have collapsed from record highs to generational lows, new project launches have effectively halted, and completed but unsold units are stacking up at levels never recorded before. It is the clearest example of what happens when the wrong kind of supply finally outruns broad market demand in an economy built on perpetual growth assumptions. Currently, dwellings under construction is running at 500% more than the population growth rate when the historical average is 50%.

And yet, the broader economy still sends mixed signals. Mortgage growth has recently ticked up, supported largely by first-time buyers stepping in where investors and move-up purchasers have stepped back. Retail spending shows households remain cautious. Sentiment readings are improving - considerably in the business sector but insolvencies in places like B.C. are quietly hitting new records. At the same time, household net worth is sitting at all-time highs, driven by financial markets that reward those already positioned at the top. 20% of Canadians own 70% of Canadian Assets!

Affordability, meanwhile, has “improved” — but only relative to a crisis peak. Even after seven quarters of easing, ownership costs are still near the worst levels Canada has ever seen, and with rates likely holding into 2026, further progress may need to come from unpopular but necessary price declines rather than overall policy relief. In this weeks podcast, we break down this critical demographic turning point — what a shrinking population truly means for housing demand, pricing power, rental markets, developers, mortgage holders, and anyone trying to make a disciplined real estate decision in the year ahead.

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Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

As we close out 2025, the data coming across the wire is some of the most consequential Canada has seen in decades—and it is quietly rewriting the playbook for real estate in 2026. For the first time in modern history, Canada’s population is shrinking, not growing. At the same time, rental vacancy rates are climbing to multi-decade highs, rents are falling, developers are pulling back, and interest rates are no longer clearly on a path down. And yet, in what feels like a contradiction, headline employment, GDP, and inflation continue to beat expectations. In this episode, we unpack how these cross-currents collide—and what they mean for housing prices, investors, homeowners, and anyone facing a buy, sell, or mortgage renewal decision in the year ahead.

The most important shift begins with population. Canada’s population fell by roughly 76,000 people in Q3, a 0.2% quarterly decline and the largest contraction on record outside of pandemic border closures. Annual population growth has slowed to just 0.2%, the lowest level ever recorded. This reversal is almost entirely driven by non-permanent residents—foreign students and temporary workers—who accounted for nearly all population growth between 2022 and 2024. That trend has now flipped.

Canada lost 176,000 non-permanent residents in a single quarter, bringing their share of the population down to 6.8%, with federal policy targeting closer to 5% by 2027. For housing, this is seismic. The demand tailwind that drove rents, prices, and pre-sales for years has disappeared just as housing completions and rental construction approach record levels. The result is straightforward: softer rents, rising developer inventory, and growing caution among investors—a dynamic that may not fully bottom out until 2027.

Rental data confirms the shift. Vancouver one-bedroom rents are down 8% year-over-year, national rents have fallen to their lowest level since mid-2023, and vacancy rates have surged. Vancouver’s purpose-built vacancy rate reached 3.7%, the highest since 1988, while Toronto hit 3% for the first time since the pandemic. Importantly, the largest wave of rental completions is still ahead. While falling rents offer short-term relief, they also widen the monthly gap between renting and owning—pushing some Canadians toward renting longer. Yet the long-term wealth divide remains stark when comparing long term outcomes between homeowners’ median net worth (on average 10 to 19 times higher than renters’) - depending on age group. Short-term affordability and long-term wealth creation are moving in opposite directions.

Housing supply tells a similar story of imbalance. National housing starts are uneven, single-family construction is shrinking, and major B.C. markets—including Vancouver—continue to slow. National home prices have fallen 21% from their 2022 peak, returning to 2017 levels in real terms. In Greater Vancouver, benchmark prices are set to fall for a tenth straight month, ending the year near three-year lows.

Taken together, this is not a crisis—but it is a reset. 2026 is shaping up to be a year defined less by momentum and more by discipline, selectivity, and long-term strategy. And for those paying attention, the data isn’t just noise—it’s a market signal.

Join the webinar: www.laidlercapital.com/emptynesters?ref=thevancouverlife

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com

It has been just 18 months since British Columbia launched Bill 44—the Small-Scale Multi-Unit Housing (SSMUH) initiative—and already the landscape of urban development in the province has shifted in ways few could have predicted. Hundreds of multiplex permit applications have been submitted across B.C., the first wave of completed projects is beginning to emerge, and municipalities that once resisted density are now formally adopting the provincial framework. Just this week, the City of North Vancouver officially passed its zoning amendments, opening the door to multiplex development across one of the most land-constrained communities in the region.

On paper, this all signals momentum. But in practice, the path to delivering “Missing Middle” housing has proven far more complex.

Nowhere is that tension clearer than in Burnaby—one of the earliest and most enthusiastic adopters of Bill 44, and now one of the loudest voices pushing back. Residents have raised concerns about scale, height, setbacks, and parking. And in response, the city has revised its bylaws, reducing allowable height, shrinking lot coverage, expanding setbacks, and increasing parking requirements. These changes may soothe neighbourhood discomfort, but they also directly affect the number of new homes that can realistically be built. We also get into a new, one of a kind single family project launch in Burnaby that is uniquely suited for downsizers and/or growing families.

To help us understand what all of this means—not just for Burnaby, but for housing supply across the entire Lower Mainland—we’re joined by someone at the forefront of multiplex development: Bill Laidler. Bill is a leader in the Missing Middle space, with more than 400 homes in development. He is a developer, educator, and one of the most articulate advocates for creating generational housing—helping grandparents live near their grandkids, while unlocking attainable ownership for young families. His previous two appearances on this channel are among our most viewed ever.

Today, Bill walks us through the real impacts of Bill 44 so far: what’s working, what isn’t, and how recent municipal pushback could reshape the next decade of housing supply. We discuss the political friction between provincial goals and municipal authority, examine the Burnaby bylaw changes in detail, and explore whether multiplexes can meaningfully improve affordability—or risk becoming another high-priced, low-yield form of stratified ownership.

We also dive into the biggest challenges affecting feasibility today: high construction costs, stricter parking requirements, and the difficulty builders face securing financing for small-scale multi-unit projects. Bill offers candid insight into which barriers matter most—and what practical solutions could unlock real progress.

Finally, Bill shares a behind-the-scenes look at some of Laidler’s upcoming multiplex communities and how they aim to set a new standard for livability, design, and family-oriented density.

If you're wondering where the future of multi-family real estate investment is going and you want to understand where Missing Middle housing is truly headed—this is a conversation you won’t want to miss.

_________________________________

Contact Us To Book Your Private Consultation:

📆 https://calendly.com/thevancouverlife

Dan Wurtele, PREC, REIA

604.809.0834

dan@thevancouverlife.com

Ryan Dash PREC

778.898.0089
ryan@thevancouverlife.com

www.thevancouverlife.com