What happens to property value when cap rates and NOI start moving in opposite directions—and how should investors prepare for that?

In this episode, Angel Williams speaks with Rich Neuharth and Moses Lucero about the realities of underwriting in multifamily investing. They break down cap rates, NOI (Net Operating Income), and the complex relationship between market forces and property performance. Rich walks through examples that clarify how small shifts in cap rates can drastically affect valuations and explains why mindset and transparency matter in underwriting. Angel challenges the assumptions with sharp questions, leading to a clear discussion of how to stress-test deals, factor in risk, and use underwriting tools responsibly.

[00:01 - 04:30] Cap Rates in Action

• How a $1M NOI changes value depending on cap rate shifts
• Why cap rate compression inflates property value—and vice versa
• The importance of separating property-level performance from market dynamics

[04:31 - 08:15] Mindset and Learning Through Repetition

• How mindset impacts willingness to ask questions and learn
• Why repeating and reframing concepts leads to deeper understanding
• The need for more open conversations about not understanding financial concepts

[08:16 - 12:30] Market Cap vs. Purchase Cap

• What the significance of market cap rate is during appraisals
• How to handle disconnects between deal-level and market expectations
• Why accurate comps and broker input guide realistic underwriting assumptions

[12:31 - 16:00] The Push-Pull of NOI and Cap Rate in Valuation

• How to analyze proportional changes in cap rate and NOI
• Why understanding opposing forces is key to modeling
• The importance of building performance scenarios and exit plans

[16:01 - 19:48] Stress Testing and Long-Term Thinking

• How to structure deals to withstand market fluctuations
• Why historical cap rate trends matter when forecasting
• The need to balance investor expectations with conservative assumptions

Connect with Rich:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/realmindsetrich

Connect with Moses:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/moses-lucero-9026b220b/

Key Quotes:

“The market cap only affects your sale or refinance. It doesn’t affect how your property operates day to day.” - Rich NeuhartH

“You're correcting for where you think cap rates are going. That helps you target NOI growth through CapEx and rent bumps.” - Angel Williams

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