June 28, 1914. An archduke is assassinated in Sarajevo. Within six weeks, every major power in Europe is at war. Within six weeks of that, the greatest monetary system humanity had ever created — one that delivered 44 years of 0.1% average inflation — is dead.

In this episode, I break down the classical gold standard: what it actually was, how it mechanically worked on a Tuesday afternoon in 1895, and why it enabled four decades of unprecedented stability, global trade, and technological innovation.

Then I walk through how World War I murdered it — and make the case that if the gold standard had survived, the war itself might have lasted months instead of years.

We've been living in the wreckage ever since. Your dollar has lost 87% of its purchasing power since 1971. And the principles that protected wealth during the golden era still apply today.

In this episode:

- The monetary chaos the gold standard replaced

- What 0.1% annual inflation actually meant for savers and builders

- How the price-specie-flow mechanism worked (explained simply)

- How trade exploded when currency risk disappeared

- The honest downsides: deflation, rigidity, and the Cross of Gold

- How governments killed convertibility to finance total war

- From Bretton Woods to Nixon's "temporary" gold window closure

- 5 investment principles for a post-gold standard world

Read the full written deep dive on The Timeless Investor Substack:

https://thetimelessinvestor.substack.com

Watch on YouTube with historical visuals:

https://www.youtube.com/@TheTimelessInvestor

Learn about Lombard Equities Group:

https://www.lombardequities.com

The same asset class returned +13% annually during 1970s stagflation—and lost 25% in 2022.Same country. Same interest rate risk. Same inflation dynamics. Completely opposite outcomes.Why? Because most investors optimize for one environment and get destroyed when the regime shifts.In this episode, I break down:→ The 4 macro regimes that actually drive investment returns→ How to identify which regime you're operating in→ What works (and what gets destroyed) in each environment→ Where I think we are right now—and what's coming nextTimestamps:0:00 - The 1970s vs 2022 Paradox2:18 - Why Investors Get Destroyed4:40 - The Four Regimes Framework5:25 - Regime 1: Goldilocks (2010-2019)8:00 - Regime 2: Stagflation (1973-1982, 2022-2024)14:00 - Regime 3: Deflationary Bust (2008-2011)20:00 - Regime 4: Financial Repression (1946-1951, 2020-2021?)27:30 - Where Are We Now?30:00 - How to Position Across Regimes📄 Full article with additional data: https://thetimelessinvestor.substack.com/p/the-2026-real-estate-macro-playbook?r=d424hThe second owners always win. The question is whether you're positioned to be one of them.—📩 Newsletter: https://thetimelessinvestor.substack.com💼 LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/arievangemeren🐦 X/Twitter: https://x.com/TimelessArie

On January 2nd, 1672, two bankers woke up to the same news: the King of England had just frozen £1.3 million in debt payments. Sovereign default.

Both men had lent to the Crown. Both had survived civil war, plague, and the Great Fire. One would build a dynasty lasting 250 years. The other would die bankrupt, in exile, in Holland.

What was the difference?

In this episode, I tell the story of Edward Backwell and Francis Child — two goldsmith-bankers operating on the same London streets, facing the same crisis, with completely opposite outcomes.

Backwell was the giant. He was called "the principal founder of the banking system in England." The kingdom itself was said to depend on him. He had lent a quarter of England's annual income to one borrower: the King.

Child was smaller. Quieter. His diversified approach looked like timidity — until the day it looked like survival.

This episode covers:

- How King Charles I's 1640 theft accidentally invented modern banking

- Why goldsmith vaults weren't actually safer than the Royal Mint

- The birth of fractional reserve banking as a security innovation

- Edward Backwell's rise from yeoman's son to England's most powerful financier

- The fatal bet: 22% of all sovereign lending concentrated in one man

- The Stop of the Exchequer and the first major bank run in history

- Francis Child's paranoid strategy — and why it built a 250-year dynasty

- The surprising family connection that united the ruined and the survivors

- Why I named my firm Lombard Equities after this story

The pattern Backwell fell into — concentrating in what seemed like the safest possible borrower — has destroyed the greatest financiers in history, from the Bardi and Peruzzi in 1345 to operators in our own era.

The lessons haven't changed. Neither has human nature.

—

📚 Read the full article on Substack: thetimelessinvestor.substack.com

💼 Connect on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/arievangemeren

🎥 Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/g_YTV3JbcxQ

What can a 14th-century financial ruin teach a 21st-century fund manager?

In this episode, we take a deep dive into the 1345 collapse of the Bardi and Peruzzi banking houses—the dominant financial titans of the medieval world. When King Edward III defaulted on a massive debt to fund the 100 Years' War, he triggered a contagion that reshaped the global economy.

We explore why these sophisticated families fell into the "sunk cost" trap and why their failure to manage concentration risk is a pattern we see repeating in today's markets.

In this episode, you’ll learn:

• The Mechanics of the Fall: How 1.5 million gold florins brought down an empire.

• Sovereign Risk: The danger of lending to "the ultimate power."

• The Medici Pivot: The structural legal innovation that allowed the next generation of bankers to survive systemic shocks.

• Modern Application: Why these 600-year-old lessons are vital for real estate and private equity firewalls in 2026.

Building something timeless requires understanding the structural errors of the past. Join us as we break down the history of risk.

Warren Buffett once said he'd rather own farmland than gold.

But gold has outperformed Berkshire Hathaway since 1998. And central banks around the world are quietly accumulating more of it than at any point in modern history.

Why?

In this episode, I sit down with Mario Innecco - host of Maneco64, one of YouTube's leading channels on precious metals with over 166,000 subscribers - to unpack what's really driving gold's historic rise.

We cover:

• The real inflation tax that central banks don't advertise• Gold's 10% annual returns since 2000 - and why it's accelerating• The Nixon shock of 1971 and its ongoing consequences• How World War I killed the classical gold standard• The petrodollar system: what it is, why it's cracking, and what Venezuela and Iran have to do with it• China's naval vulnerability and the geopolitics of oil• Bitcoin vs. gold: competitors or cousins?

Whether you own gold, are skeptical of it, or just want to understand the monetary system we're living through, this episode will give you a framework most investors never consider.

Books mentioned: The Bitcoin Standard, The Creature from Jekyll Island, The Prize, What Has Government Done to Our Money, Fiat Money Inflation in France, Tower of Basel

Follow us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheTimelessInvestor

Follow me on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/arievangemeren/

And on X: https://x.com/TimelessArie

Connect with Mario: YouTube.com/Maneco64

—

Think well. Act wisely. Build something satisfying, impactful, and timeless.

In this episode of the Timeless Investor Show, host Ari van Gemeren breaks down the historical collapse of the Savings and Loan (S&L) industry and why it serves as a critical blueprint for the current real estate landscape.

Discover how the "3-6-3 rule" failed, the massive impact of Paul Volcker’s interest rate hikes, and how the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) created the largest "forced liquidation" in U.S. history. We analyze how legendary investors like Sam Zell and Barry Sternlicht built empires from these distressed assets and explore the startling parallels to the $1.5 trillion in commercial debt maturing between 2025 and 2027. If you want to understand the "extend and pretend" cycle and how to position yourself for the next great wealth transfer, this deep dive is for you.

Harry Helmsley started as a $12/week office boy in 1925. By the 1970s, he owned more real estate than anyone in America—the Empire State Building, 60+ office buildings, 30+ hotels, over $5 billion in assets.

His strategy? Buy quality buildings in quality locations. Never sell. Just compound.

No flipping. No syndicate exits. No IRR optimization. Just 40+ years of patient accumulation.

In this episode, we break down:

→ How Helmsley learned operations before ownership (and why it matters)

→ The "refinance, don't sell" approach that avoided capital gains for decades

→ Why transaction costs destroy more wealth than most investors realize

→ The crown jewel acquisitions: Empire State Building, Helmsley Building, the hotel empire

→ What happened when it almost all fell apart (and the lesson in who you marry)

The greatest real estate fortunes weren't built by flipping. They were built by holding.

—

Subscribe to The Timeless Investor newsletter: https://thetimelessinvestor.substack.com

Interested in investing with us? https://investors.appfolioim.com/lombardequities/investor/contact-us (accredited investors only)

—

00:00 - Introduction: $5 Billion Empire from Nothing

02:15 - The Office Boy Years (1925-1935)

05:30 - Buying the Brokerage with Sweat Equity

08:45 - The Accumulation Strategy: Buy, Hold, Never Sell

12:20 - Why Refinancing Beats Selling (The Math)

16:00 - The Crown Jewels: Empire State Building & Beyond

19:30 - The Fall: Leona and the Collapse

22:00 - Timeless Lessons for Modern Investors

#realestateinvesting #wealthbuilding #harryhelmsely #empirestatebuilding #buyandhold #passiveincome #realestate #investing #financialhistory

A SPECIAL REPORT:

Last December, I published a 23-page report predicting what would happen in 2025 — treasury yields, inflation, GDP, housing supply. Today, I'm grading myself in public.

Predicted 10Y Treasury: 4.1% → Actual: 4.11%

Predicted Seattle Permits: -36% → Actual: -50%

Predicted Inflation: 2.5% → Actual: 2.7%

Most predictions were directionally right. Some were wrong. And 2025 threw curveballs nobody saw coming — $40B in wildfire losses by Week 2, a 43-day government shutdown, and a GDP path that broke every model.

This video covers:

→ The Six Forces scorecard (with grades)

→ Black swan events that blindsided everyone

→ The behavioral finance of 2025 (anchoring, recency bias, narrative fallacy)

→ What I'm watching for 2026

00:00 - What I Predicted

02:30 - The Six Forces Scorecard

12:00 - What Nobody Saw Coming

18:00 - Behavioral Finance Audit

26:00 - The Denver Deal I Didn't Do

30:00 - 2026 Watchlist

🔔 Subscribe for the 2026 Outlook Report (dropping January)

📩 Join The Timeless Investor Newsletter:

https://lombardequities.substack.com

📈 Accredited Investors — Work With Us:

https://lombardequities.com

#realestateinvesting #2025predictions #marketoutlook #multifamily