エピソード

  • Can Prediction Markets Actually Forecast FDA Drug Approvals?

    Can Prediction Markets Actually Forecast FDA Drug Approvals?
    2026/08/11
    In this episode we dissect a Kalshi market on an oncology drug’s approval, tracing how clinical trial results, advisory committee votes, and safety signals shape the odds. We examine base rates, liquidity, cross‑market comparisons, and what these prices reveal about regulatory uncertainty. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    18 分
  • AI Hallucinations, Market Collapses, and How Regulation Shapes Prediction Prices

    AI Hallucinations, Market Collapses, and How Regulation Shapes Prediction Prices
    2026/08/11
    The episode tracks a fabricated AI rumor that jolted trading activity, the regulatory shutdown of Intrade that exposed governance gaps, Kalshi’s legal struggle over political contracts, and Polymarket’s brand‑building controversies. It examines how liquidity, potential manipulation, and market structure intersect with information flow and risk. Listeners gain insight into what these events reveal about forecasting, probability interpretation, and the fragility of prediction markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    22 分
  • Gold’s New Peak? Kalshi’s Regulatory Rumble & Market Dynamics

    Gold’s New Peak? Kalshi’s Regulatory Rumble & Market Dynamics
    2026/08/11
    We unpack how a gold‑price prediction market moved into the mid‑$5,000s as inflation and real‑rate dynamics shifted, then we dive into Kalshi’s recent regulatory hurdles—from a Senate betting ban to new crypto futures—examining liquidity, arbitrage opportunities, media partnerships, and what these stories reveal about event‑contract price discovery. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    18 分
  • Humanoid Robot Futures, Whale Bets, and Regulation: Inside Today’s Prediction‑Market Mix

    Humanoid Robot Futures, Whale Bets, and Regulation: Inside Today’s Prediction‑Market Mix
    2026/08/11
    The episode dives into the burgeoning market for humanoid robot contracts, the high‑stakes whale trade that rattled Intrade, and Polymarket’s regulatory showdown—examining how traders react to new evidence, liquidity shifts, and legal constraints to forecast tomorrow’s uncertain events. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    23 分
  • Recession Contracts, Kalshi & Polymarket: The Regulatory Showdown

    Recession Contracts, Kalshi & Polymarket: The Regulatory Showdown
    2026/08/11
    Explores how the word ‘recession’ is defined in prediction markets, why contract wording drives price discovery and liquidity, and how Kalshi and Polymarket wrestle with a regulatory maze that pits derivatives law against state gambling statutes. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    18 分
  • Confidence vs Calibration: Unpacking Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Regulatory Game

    Confidence vs Calibration: Unpacking Kalshi, Polymarket, and the Regulatory Game
    2026/08/11
    In this episode we dissect the difference between confidence and calibration in forecasting, trace how Kalshi’s regulated platform and Polymarket’s crypto‑based market evolved amid legal battles, and examine what these events teach us about probability, liquidity and regulation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    20 分
  • Long-Horizon Prediction Markets & the Liquidity Puzzle

    Long-Horizon Prediction Markets & the Liquidity Puzzle
    2026/08/11
    This episode examines how prediction markets struggle to price outcomes five to twenty years out, the impact of liquidity limits highlighted by Intrade’s collapse and the Romney whale, regulatory challenges for Kalshi and Polymarket, and what calibration and Bayesian updating teach us about probability evolution. We walk through how traders interpret base rates, reference classes, and new information to shift probabilities in high‑stakes contracts on two major platforms. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    21 分
  • The Legal Battle Over Prediction-Market Regulation

    The Legal Battle Over Prediction-Market Regulation
    2026/08/11
    We dissect how Kalshi’s federal designation as a Designated Contract Market and Polymarket’s crypto‑native model collide under recent court rulings, reshaping market efficiency and trader behavior. The episode explores the regulatory backdrop, insider‑trading allegations, and how these legal developments influence liquidity and price discovery. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    17 分