『The Prediction Markets Podcast: Forecasting, Probability, Politics, Economics, Sports, Technology, and Future Events』のカバーアート

The Prediction Markets Podcast: Forecasting, Probability, Politics, Economics, Sports, Technology, and Future Events

The Prediction Markets Podcast: Forecasting, Probability, Politics, Economics, Sports, Technology, and Future Events

著者： Podily
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The Prediction Markets Podcast explores the fascinating world of forecasting, probability, prediction markets, politics, economics, sports, technology, business, and future events. Each episode examines how people use information, probabilities, market prices, data, news, and collective expectations to estimate what might happen next. From elections and economic indicators to sporting events, technological breakthroughs, geopolitical developments, corporate decisions, and major world events, the podcast explores how prediction markets work and what their prices can—and cannot—tell us about the future. Episodes may examine platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, market movements, forecasting strategies, probability concepts, historical predictions, surprising wins and losses, regulatory developments, and the psychology behind how traders evaluate uncertain outcomes. Listeners can learn about implied probabilities, market efficiency, liquidity, information advantages, crowd wisdom, behavioral biases, risk management, forecasting techniques, and the ways new information can rapidly change expectations. The Prediction Markets Podcast is designed for anyone interested in prediction markets, forecasting, probability, economics, politics, sports, technology, data, decision-making, and understanding uncertainty. Disclaimer: This podcast is provided for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only. Nothing presented should be considered financial, investment, trading, gambling, legal, tax, or other professional advice. Prediction markets involve risk, outcomes are uncertain, and past results or market probabilities do not guarantee future results. References to particular prediction markets, platforms, contracts, companies, individuals, or strategies do not constitute endorsements or recommendations to trade, wager, buy, sell, or participate. Listeners are responsible for understanding and complying with all laws, regulations, eligibility requirements, and platform rules applicable in their jurisdiction.© 2026 Podily. All rights reserved. 個人ファイナンス 経済学
エピソード
  • Can Prediction Markets Actually Forecast FDA Drug Approvals?

    Can Prediction Markets Actually Forecast FDA Drug Approvals?
    2026/08/11
    In this episode we dissect a Kalshi market on an oncology drug’s approval, tracing how clinical trial results, advisory committee votes, and safety signals shape the odds. We examine base rates, liquidity, cross‑market comparisons, and what these prices reveal about regulatory uncertainty. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    18 分
  • AI Hallucinations, Market Collapses, and How Regulation Shapes Prediction Prices

    AI Hallucinations, Market Collapses, and How Regulation Shapes Prediction Prices
    2026/08/11
    The episode tracks a fabricated AI rumor that jolted trading activity, the regulatory shutdown of Intrade that exposed governance gaps, Kalshi’s legal struggle over political contracts, and Polymarket’s brand‑building controversies. It examines how liquidity, potential manipulation, and market structure intersect with information flow and risk. Listeners gain insight into what these events reveal about forecasting, probability interpretation, and the fragility of prediction markets. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    22 分
  • Gold’s New Peak? Kalshi’s Regulatory Rumble & Market Dynamics

    Gold’s New Peak? Kalshi’s Regulatory Rumble & Market Dynamics
    2026/08/11
    We unpack how a gold‑price prediction market moved into the mid‑$5,000s as inflation and real‑rate dynamics shifted, then we dive into Kalshi’s recent regulatory hurdles—from a Senate betting ban to new crypto futures—examining liquidity, arbitrage opportunities, media partnerships, and what these stories reveal about event‑contract price discovery. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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    18 分
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