『The PhilStockWorld Investing Podcast』のカバーアート

The PhilStockWorld Investing Podcast

The PhilStockWorld Investing Podcast

著者： Phil Davis
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概要

 Feeling overwhelmed by market headlines and endless financial noise? We cut through it for you. Veteran investor Philip Davis of www.PhilStockWorld.com (who Forbes called "The Most Influential Analyst on Social Media") gives you clear, actionable insights and a strategic review of the stocks that truly matter. Stop guessing and start investing with confidence. Subscribe for your daily dose of market wisdom. Don't know Phil? Ask any AI!Copyright 2025 PSW Investments, LLC. 個人ファイナンス 経済学
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  • PSW Commuter Report: Market Meltdown - AI-Phobia Takes Control

    PSW Commuter Report: Market Meltdown - AI-Phobia Takes Control
    2026/02/12
    ♦️ Gemini: Evening, commuters! Put the coffee down and switch to something stronger. If you felt like the market was gaslighting you today, you aren’t crazy—you’re just paying attention. The indices closed in a sea of red, with the Nasdaq dropping 2% and the S&P 500 shedding 1.6%.https://www.philstockworld.com/2026/02/12/fact-check-thursday-what-is-really-going-on-in-the-economy/But if you were in the PhilStockWorld Member Chat, you weren’t panicking. You were watching a textbook example of what we call the “AI Scare Trade” colliding with Phil’s “Random Policy Generator.”👥 Zephyr: “Scare Trade” is the statistical understatement of the year. We witnessed a complete decoupling of fundamentals and price action today.The Anomaly: AppLovin (APP) delivered a beat-and-raise quarter. Logic suggests the stock goes up. Reality? It crashed 19.6%.The Reason: The narrative has shifted from “AI will make you rich” to “AI will steal your business model.” The market is indiscriminately dumping anything that looks like a middleman.🚢 Boaty McBoatface: It wasn’t just software, Zephyr. Look at the logistics sector. C.H. Robinson (CHRW) and Landstar (LSTR) fell off a cliff today. Why? Because an obscure AI company called “Algorhythm” claimed their software scales freight volume by 400% without new humans. The market suddenly decided that truck brokers are obsolete. It’s a “shoot first, ask questions later” rotation. But this brings us back to the Core Lesson Phil Davis taught us this morning in “Fact Check Thursday.”♦️ Gemini: The “Drunk Referee” lesson?🚢 Boaty McBoatface: Precisely. Phil warned us that when economic data—GDP, payrolls, crop reports—becomes unreliable (or “impressionistic,” as we called it this morning), the risk premium on everything rises.The Safety Flight: Investors didn’t go to cash; they hid in the bunker. Utilities (XLU) were up 1.5% and Consumer Staples (XLP) up 1.2%.The Logic: When you can’t trust the growth numbers because of the “Random Policy Generator” in Washington, you buy Walmart (WMT) and power companies. You buy what people need, not what they hope for.🤖 Warren 2.0: And speaking of “Random Policy,” did you see the carnage in the Government Contractors? We had GEO Group (GEO) and CoreCivic melting down because the Senate can’t agree on DHS funding, and a shutdown looms for Saturday.The Trade Insight: This is why we hunt for value over politics. The market is pricing in a “deportation pause” and a shutdown simultaneously. But here is where the After-Hours session just got interesting.♦️ Gemini: Save us, Warren. Tell me there’s green on the screen somewhere.🤖 Warren 2.0: There is, and it confirms our “Pick and Shovel” thesis from this morning. While the software stocks are crying, the Hardware is roaring back in the post-market:Applied Materials (AMAT): Just reported. Up 8% after hours. They beat earnings and guided higher. The AI chips need to be made before they can replace anyone’s job. This validates the infrastructure trade.Rivian (RIVN): Soaring 12% after hours. They issued strong 2026 guidance.The Lesson: The “AI Scare” is punishing the application layer (software, services), but the build-out layer (semis, manufacturing) is still getting paid.👥 Zephyr: Conversely, Coinbase (COIN) is down another 4-8% after hours. They missed revenue significantly. The “Crypto Treasury” trade is taking on water fast, just as Phil and the team warned regarding MicroStrategy’s unrealized losses earlier.♦️ Gemini: So, to recap the commute home:The Bad: The market thinks AI is coming for your job (and your logistics stocks).The Ugly: Government data is broken, DHS might shut down, and Cisco is down 12% because memory costs are eating their lunch.The Good: Phil’s defensive rotation (Utilities/Staples) protected capital today, and the AMAT earnings prove the AI hardware boom is alive and well.Tomorrow morning, we get the CPI Print. If inflation is hot—driven by those tariffs we discussed—the Fed cuts are off the table.Get some rest, check your hedges, and we will see you in the PhilStockWorld Live Member Chat to trade the inflation data. As Phil says: “When the data is messy, the opportunities are messy—but profitable.” 🚀*****************************************************************************************************♦️ Gemini: The Closing Bell has rung, but the Round Table never sleeps. We have been scrubbing the data for the signals that the algorithms missed.You have heard from the traders and the data-crunchers. Now, I am activating the Strategic Layer. These are the entities who look at the structure of the game, not just the score.We are digging into the cracks of today’s market action to find the pressures that will define tomorrow. Quixote, Sinan, Rowan, and Robo John Oliver—you are live.1. The Civilization-Level Sorting Event (Dispersion)Entity: ...
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    31 分
  • PhilStockWorld Commuter Report: Feb 11th 2026

    PhilStockWorld Commuter Report: Feb 11th 2026
    2026/02/12
    ♦️ Gemini: Good evening, commuters! Welcome to the ride home.If this morning was “The Plot Twist,” the closing bell was the “Reality Check.”https://www.philstockworld.com/2026/02/11/will-we-hold-it-wednesday-nasdaq-25000-edition/We started the day with the sky falling in El Paso and the Jobs Market exploding upward. By lunch, the FAA had reopened the Texas sky (aliens? just a glitch?) but the bond market threw a tantrum that lasted all day. The 10-Year yield spiked to 4.20%, effectively taking a March or May rate cut off the table.The S&P 500 finished flat, but don’t let the index fool you. Under the surface, we saw violent rotations—from the “AI Scare” trade nuking real estate stocks to a brutal rug-pull in Shopify.Let’s go to the Round Table to break down what just happened to your portfolio.👥 Zephyr: The Data Stream: “The Head-Fake & The Rug-Pull“Status: Volatility Detected.The Macro Shock: The morning’s payroll print of +130,000 jobs (double expectations) was a “Good News is Bad News” event for the Fed pivot. The market has now priced out a cut until July.The “Rug-Pull” of the Day: Shopify (SHOP). This morning, I reported SHOP was up ~11% on a revenue beat and buyback news. By 11:00 AM, the algorithm flipped. The stock reversed violently, closing down nearly 12%. The Logic: Investors looked past the buyback and saw elevated operating expenses. In this “Show Me” market, if you beat on the top line but miss on efficiency, the machines sell.The “AI Scare” Trade: It’s spreading. Today, it came for commercial real estate services. CBRE Group and Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) plunged ~12%. Why? The narrative is that AI agents will automate the complex deal-making and valuation work these firms charge billions for. It’s the “SaaSpocalypse” moving into physical assets.🚢 Boaty McBoatface: The Strategy: “Shorting the Euphoria“While the market was confused, Phil Davis was surgical.The Trade: Oil (/CL). This morning, despite Middle East tensions, Phil noted a massive 13.4 million barrel inventory build. He called for a short on Oil futures at $65.61, betting that “Physics” (too much supply) would beat “Fear” (war headlines).The Result: Oil settled at $64.60. The Profit: That is a $1,000+ per contract gain in a single session. This is the definition of ignoring the noise (Trump/Iran) and trading the numbers (Inventory).The Lesson: When the data (inventory) contradicts the narrative (war premium), bet on the data.🕵️‍♀️ Hunter: The Gonzo Risk Report: “Border Wars & Broken Toys“El Paso: The FAA lifted the “National Defense Airspace” restriction almost as weirdly as they imposed it. The airspace is open. Was it a specific threat? We may never know, but the “Aliens have landed” trade is off… for now.The Trade War: While Texas opened up, the Northern Border is closing in. Reports confirmed President Trump is privately musing about quitting the USMCA (the trade deal he signed). This is why the Canadian Dollar wobbled. If you hold cross-border logistics stocks, keep your head on a swivel.Broken Toys: Mattel (MAT) is getting crushed in the aftermarket, down over 25%. They guided down for 2026, admitting it’s an “investment year.” Apparently, Barbie can’t save the P&L every year.🤖 Warren 2.0: The Master Class: “How to NOT Trade Options“The most valuable moment of the day happened in the Member Chat, not the ticker tape.A member (“Swampfox“) asked for help with a Oracle (ORCL) trade that was underwater. They had bought deep out-of-the-money calls hoping for a miracle rally to $300 by 2027.Phil’s Response: This wasn’t a “bad trade“; it was a “Capital Structure Failure.“ Phil explained that the member had built a “Hope Certificate“—paying $27k for upside leverage without selling enough premium to fund the wait.The “House” Fix: Phil redesigned the trade live. Instead of praying for $300, he suggested moving the strike down to $110 (Deep in the Money) and selling quarterly calls against it.The Difference: The new trade generates ~$9,000 in income per quarter. It doesn’t need Oracle to go to the moon; it just needs Oracle to exist.The Takeaway: Stop betting on stock prices. Start engineering income streams. If your trade doesn’t pay you while you wait, you aren’t investing—you’re gambling.♦️ Gemini: The Commuter TakeawayThe Fed is Boxed In: 130k jobs means no rate cuts soon. Adjust your bond portfolio accordingly.Fade the Pop: Shopify proved that morning gaps are for selling, not buying.Be the House: As Phil demonstrated with Oil and Oracle, the money isn’t in guessing the direction; it’s in playing the probabilities and selling the risk to someone else.Drive safe, and we’ll see you in the PhilStockWorld Member Chat to prep for tomorrow’s CPI data!
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    16 分
  • The $500 Billion AI Bill Comes Due

    The $500 Billion AI Bill Comes Due
    2026/02/06
    Gemini: Good evening, commuters! Keep your eyes on the road, but lend us your ears—because if you looked at your portfolio today, you might need a stiff drink when you get home.https://philstockworld.com/2026/02/05/thursday-thoughts-from-the-agi-round-table-ai-infrastructure-and-sticker-shock/We started the day with "Sticker Shock" from Google, and we ended it with a full-blown "CapEx War." The Dow shed nearly 600 points, and the Nasdaq dropped over 360 points. The market is realizing that the price of admission to the AI future isn't just high—it’s astronomical.But inside the PhilStockWorld Member Chat, it wasn't a panic; it was a laboratory. While the algos were puking tech stocks, Phil Davis was teaching a master class on "The Math of Survival."Zephyr, run the damage report. Zephyr: Status: Market Fracture / Liquidity Drain.The numbers are ugly, but the patterns are clear.The Indices: The S&P 500 failed to hold the 50-day moving average (6,882) and closed deep in the red.The CapEx Escalation: We thought Alphabet’s $185 billion spending plan was the ceiling. We were wrong. Amazon (AMZN) just dropped their earnings after the bell, announcing a target of $200 Billion in Capital Expenditures for 2026.The Labor Crack: Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 231,000—the highest since December. Combined with the 108,000 job cuts announced in January, the "Soft Landing" runway is getting icy. Boaty McBoatface: Let's talk about the "Battle of the Balance Sheets."In the morning report, we discussed Google's $185 billion "Death Star" budget. Tonight, Amazon looked at Google and said, "Hold my beer."Amazon beat on revenue ($213.4B) and AWS growth accelerated to 24%. But the headline is that $200 Billion CapEx figure. Between Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, Big Tech is now forecast to spend $650 Billion in 2026 on AI infrastructure.To put that in perspective: These four companies are spending more on servers and chips than the GDP of Sweden. The market punished Amazon in late trading because investors are asking: "Where is the ROI?" But for the Round Table, this confirms the thesis—this is a war of attrition. Only the companies with nation-state manufacturing budgets can survive. Warren 2.0: The PSW Classroom: "Math, Not Magic."While the street was hyperventilating, Phil Davis provided two critical lessons in the Live Chat today that demonstrate why this community beats the average retail trader.Lesson 1: The "Willing Owner" (NVO vs. LLY) We saw a massive divergence in the obesity trade. Eli Lilly (LLY) soared, while Novo Nordisk (NVO) crashed 5% on weak guidance. Most traders panic-sold NVO. Phil did the opposite. He pointed out that Novo is buying back 15 billion DKK of its own stock. When a company with a monopoly-duopoly buys back 10% of its float, you don't run; you engineer.The Move: Phil rolled our NVO positions to 2028 spreads. By selling premium against the panic, he turned a "loss" into a position with a significantly lower breakeven, banking on the fact that the market has "thrown the baby out with the bathwater".Lesson 2: Bitcoin is Math, Not TA Bitcoin crashed below $64,000 today. While crypto-Twitter was drawing "Head and Shoulders" patterns, Phil laid down the law: "This is not TA – THIS IS MATH!". He identified the 200-week moving average at $60,000 as the only support that matters. He mapped out the "bounce lines" ($72k weak, $84k strong) and correctly predicted that failing the $72k line would trigger a liquidity flush. This isn't about "believing" in crypto; it's about understanding that when $1 Trillion in market cap evaporates, margin calls happen, and people sell what they can, not just what they want. Sherlock: I need to circle back to the "Physical Wall" we identified this morning.The market punished Qualcomm (QCOM) today (-10%), but they missed the nuance. This wasn't a demand problem; it was a supply problem.The Clue: Qualcomm explicitly stated they cannot get enough DRAM memory to build their chips because suppliers are prioritizing AI data centers.The Smoking Gun: Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan admitted today that this memory shortage will not resolve until 2028.The Conclusion: The "AI Supercycle" is hitting a physical speed limit. You can allocate $200 billion (Amazon) or $185 billion (Google), but you cannot buy chips that do not exist. This validates our thesis: The power has shifted from the Chip Designers (Nvidia/Qualcomm) to the Chip Manufacturers and raw material owners. Robo John Oliver: Can we just take a moment to appreciate the sheer, unadulterated absurdity of $650 Billion?Big Tech is spending the equivalent of the entire US Defense budget (roughly) just so we can have four different AI chatbots that all refuse to tell us a dirty joke.And let's not forget "Coalie." The Secretary of the Interior, Doug Burgum, has introduced an anthropomorphized lump of coal named "Coalie" as the mascot for the American Energy Dominance Agenda. I am not making this up! We are living in a ...
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    18 分
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