The historic Israel-Lebanon ceasefire announced this week is the result of a direct conversation between the President of Lebanon and the Prime Minister of Israel. And yet, this deal was brokered by the U.S. against the wishes of Bibi Netanyahu as it has impeded Israel's ability to push Hezbollah back from its border. Coupled with the halting of the Iran war - and being excluded from that negotiating table - the events of the past few weeks have resulted in a political and strategic defeat for Israel. What effect will this have on Netanyahu’s standing ahead of the next election in Israel? And are these unfavourable outcomes the result of growing daylight between Washington and Jerusalem? In the second half of the show Rudyard and Janice turn to Canadian domestic politics and the Liberals securing a majority rule via floor crossings and by-elections. Why are we seeing an unprecedented exodus of MPs to the Liberals? Is there something more going on behind the scenes? And how will this growing collapse of party loyalty and the bonds of party affiliation weaken our democracy?

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Thanks to recent floor crossings and last night's by-election, the Liberal Party now has a majority government and a 15 point favourability lead that has unnerved and divided the Conservatives. Should MPs be able to cross the floor at their will? Andrew argues that public officials crossing over from the opposition to the governing body should seek permission from their constituents. What is the fate and future of the NDP and Conservatives in this new political environment? Meanwhile the Liberals now have time to rebuild the party and Mark Carney, with the confidence of the country, has the latitude to decide what direction he wants to go in. Will the PM use this new majority and political capital to finally address Canada's major crises - productivity, overregulation, lack of competition - that past leaders chose to ignore?

Janice and Rudyard believe this war was a strategic defeat for the U.S. with Iran now in control of a chokepoint through which 25% of the world's energy flows. Is this the end of freedom of navigation in international waters? Iran is proposing a toll for passing through the Strait of Hormuz using cryptocurrency which could erode an important U.S. strategic chokepoint: the dollar's role as the world's reserve currency. Meanwhile America's major allies - NATO members, Asian countries and the Gulf States - have lost confidence in America's ability to protect them. How will China take advantage of America's strategic blunder? Can J.D. Vance use this conflict to advance his own political ambitions? And will the U.S. make serious concessions to Iran about tolls, sanctions, and enriched uranium? This week, geopolitics shifted beneath our feet—and it may mark the start of America’s decline.

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