Summary

This conversation delves into the appraisal and analysis of the Nigerian agriculture budget for 2025-2026, focusing on its implications for farmers, food security, and the overall economy. The discussion features insights from agricultural professionals on the effectiveness of past budgets, the importance of accountability, and the need for strategic investments in the agricultural sector. Key themes include the role of smallholder farmers, cottage industries significance, value addition, post harvest losses, mechanization, purchasing power of the budget, the necessity for fiscal responsibility, disbursement matching allocation, and local and state governments focus.

Moderators:

• Toheeb Azeez, Founder & CEO of Heebgrow Foods and The Lasgidi Farmer Podcast

• Alfred Ukane, Founder Chuvaak Agro Services & CEO Melora Farms

• Afeez Olumide Garuba, Founder Voice of The Farmers

Guest Speakers

• Oluwaseun Adeyemi (Seun): Wealth management professional at CI Financial in Canada.

• Jerry Tobi Olanrewaju: Jet Farms & Agro Solutions Ltd, Founder of Farm2C Africa, & D’More Food and Spices (nutrition-focused value addition).

Background

This is a sequel, 2nd Edition, to the first of its kind and edition held last year 2025 appraising the Nigerian agriculture budget.

This event sought to promote 2026 agriculture budget productivity, effectiveness, performance, and impact by appraising the previous year's budget and performance, learning from what failed, what worked and adapting lessons for current one.

One failure highlighted was disbursement not matching allocation and important projects starved of critical funds but while ambiguous items seized funds and never executed.

The discussion also analyzed the present budget which nearly doubled from last year reaching 1.45 trillion and with greater percentage share of the national budget.

We deliberated on whether this budget increase had much to offer and also the real purchasing power of the budget looking at different macroeconomic indices -inflation, exchange rates and production cost, etc. -from last year, and deduced that despite a higher exchange rates the purchasing power was still better with stable rates but considered the implication of importation of important inputs for farming not manufactured locally.

The budget failing to attain recommendation percentage was underscored but the increase was lauded, however, productive use of funds was emphasized.

We also looked at the incredible budgets items for instance the Renewed Hope, agric ministry HQ construction and thought the funds could be redirected to cottage industries, value addition and addressing wastages, mechanization and extension.

The need for long planning, policy transition, and accountability focusing on local government and state chapter of federal agriculture ministry were stressed.

Takeaways

• The 2025/26 Nigerian agriculture budget aims to enhance food security and support farmers.
• Accountability in budget allocation is crucial for effective implementation.
• Cottage industries can significantly improve farmers' profitability.
• Cold chain development is essential to reduce post-harvest losses.
• Investment in agriculture must focus on practical outcomes for smallholder farmers.
• The government should prioritize fiscal responsibility in budget management.
• Agricultural policies need to be consistent and long-term to be effective.
• Local governments play a vital role in agricultural development and must be held accountable.
• The budget should reflect the needs of farmers and not be politicized.
• Collaboration between government and private sectors is necessary for agricultural growth.

Sound bites

"We need to focus on industrialization."

"The budget is good, but we can do more."

"We need a 25-year agricultural plan."

Keywords

Nigerian agriculture, budget analysis, food security, smallholder farmers, agricultural policy, budget accountability, cottage industry, cold chain, fiscal responsibility, investment in agriculture

This was an urgent conversation to address the ongoing cocoa crisis where prices have plummeted and cocoa farmers, especially in Ghana and Cote d’Ivoire, have been most affected and unable to sell their stocks, which have had significant impacts on their livelihoods and lives.

We attempted at the causal factors of the crisis but also perused the differences in impact experienced by the Ghanaian cocoa farmers and Cote d’Ivoire cocoa farmers as lamentation in the public were mostly by the former.

In 2022, Cocoa price at the international market was $2,000. The price began seeing sharp rise with severe disease outbreaks –swollen shoot virus and black pod disease –that affected cocoa production and harvest. This was worsened by poor weather conditions (El-nino).

Cocoa requires moderate temperature for proper growth, and fermentation of seeds. Aging and low productive trees and production method added to these issues to constrain cocoa supply. This created scarcity for price rally –the largest cocoa global supply deficit in 60yrs.

With apprehension and speculations price reached $10,000 in early 2024 and exceeded $12,000 by April 2024, a record high of over 117% not seen in the last 50yrs. However, price hassince dropped 60% in past year to about $3,700 today. This while low is still above the $2,000 price at the onset of the rally.

Farmers that have stock when the prices were high and still have stocks today when price is $3,700 above 2022's $2,000 are still unable to get buyers for their commodities.

Africa produces 90% of the world’s cocoa, and Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana are the largest producers representing 70%of global productions. Thus, it can be seen how a dampened market would affect them.

Cote d’Ivoire produces the most cocoa with over 2 million tonnes and with Ghana coming 2nd with 860,000 tonnes.However, Ghanaian farmers complained most with the cocoa crisis. The host Toheeb Azeez asked Co-host Gbenga why this.

Gbenga explained it had to do with the different modes of financing where for Cote d’Ivoire the government buys the cocoa from the farmers but that of Ghana is paid for by international lenders and aggregators through collateralized purchase of future exports and fresh harvest. The international lenders provide syndicate loans mediated by the Ghana Cocoa Commodity Board (COCOBOD) and where the government stands in as surety.

The international lenders provide about $2 billion credit for Ghana cocoa farmers yearly. It enables and sustains production and creates a ready, stable market for the farmers.However, as the market plummeted the buyers refused to buy and where many have faulted the lenders for ceasing to buy, saying if prices had gone higher but the cocoa beans already collateralized and purchased at lower prices the agreement would still stand.

International buyers refused to buy Ghana’s cocoa to higher prices, with a normalized market where supply improved with the weather now favourable and countries as Cote d'Ivoire and Nigeria improving productions and retailing at lower prices. A speculative strategy led by COCOBOD's price hike, speculators exiting, strengthened currency making Ghana cocoa less attractive to buyers, etc. left the farmers in a bad shape. The board now has a total debt of GH₵ 31.9 billion.

We however called out that this does not justify price injustice to farmers. Farmers wailed despite price rally to highest peak for a year and half. The cocoa farmers realize less than a dollar a day. Ghanaian farmers consistently received lower than 40% of market value for cocoa during the global price surge.

We deliberated on the place for justice, equality and indigenous processing to trap in earnings, and a restructured market serving Africa and especially Nigeria, where Africa consumes $3.3 million tonnes of chocolate worth $16 billion and Nigeria $40 million chocolate. Also whether Ghana pulling out from international financing and reengineering local financing could work.

Summary

In this conversation, Toheeb Azeez (host) and Adekanmi Adesuyi (Sam, the Guest) discuss the evolving economic landscape between Nigeria and Canada, emphasizing the importance of global engagement, agricultural practices, and the need for youth involvement in farming. The dialogue explores the challenges faced by Nigeria's economy, the lessons that can be learned from Canada's economic and agricultural successes, and the potential for strengthening trade relations between the two countries. The dialogue highlights the significance of innovative practices and infrastructure investment in addressing food security and economic growth. Also discussed were the potential for trade and collaboration between Nigeria and Canada, emphasizing the need for Nigeria to achieve food self-sufficiency and local production before focusing on exports and partnerships. The conversation highlighted the importance of energy collaboration, technological exchange, and the role of the private sector in driving agricultural growth. Sam stressed the necessity of consistent agricultural policies and innovation to improve productivity and create a sustainable economy. He advocates for a strong public-private partnership to harness Nigeria's resources effectively and build a robust agricultural sector.

Background

This conversation explored the Canadian and Nigerian Agrifood Markets and opportunities for collaborations.

The conversation is timely as Nigeria begins to engage globally, opening a historic sovereign pavilion, the Nigerian House Davos at the World Economic Forum 2026, where it seeks investments and partnerships but one founded on respect and mutual benefits.

Canada appears a suitable candidate professing such ethos seeking new partnerships, with trade hostilities from the United States.

Nigeria and Canada have much in common, endowed with resources, powerhouses for oil and agricultural productions and exports powering the world economy, beautiful, multicultural and strategically positioned attracting visits and investments.These features also make them ground of geopolitical concern and influence and susceptible to global economic disruptions.The geopolitical conflicts, trade war, energy insecurity, and domestic issues -political instability and rising nationalism, inflation, interest rates and infrastructure gap are impacting production landscape and affecting food systems, output and demand. This conversation looked at factors shaping events in respective countries and their effects, what can be learnt and adopted, to build resilience, and also cement and boost trade between both countries that already conduct bilateral trade, one valued at $3.5 billion.

Sound Bites

"We need to build ourselves."

"We can build unimaginable things in Nigeria."

"We have to have what we want to give -negotiating from a place of value is better."

"No one is coming to save us. Only Africa will develop Africa."

"Government must find a way to make private sector work."

"In other climes governments depend on businesses, but here businesses depend on governments."

Keywords

Nigeria, Canada, agriculture, economy, trade, food security, youth engagement, economic growth, global relations, agricultural practices, Nigeria, Canada, agriculture, trade, energy, technology, food self-sufficiency, innovation, private sector, collaboration.

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