Can military superiority compensate for bad strategy?

In this special episode of The Focus, Dr John Bruni speaks with Sir Lawrence Freedman—one of the world’s foremost authorities on strategy and war—about the strategic failures shaping today’s increasingly interconnected conflicts.

Using the Iran War as a starting point, Sir Lawrence explains why strategy remains an art rather than a science, why overwhelming military power cannot guarantee a satisfactory political outcome, and why states must consider how a war will end before they begin it.

The conversation examines whether Iran has proved more strategically effective than the United States, the internal struggle over Iranian policy, the independence of the Houthis, and the growing connections between the conflicts involving Iran, Russia and Ukraine.

John and Sir Lawrence also discuss:

• The difference between military action and political strategy
• Bismarck and Moltke’s disagreement during the Franco-Prussian War


• Pete Hegseth and the dangers of strategic boasting
• The emerging Adversarial Entente


• Why the current disorder may benefit China
• Europe’s capacity to defend itself against Russia


• America’s changing relationship with its allies
• The “hurting stalemate” in Ukraine
• SAGE International’s Threshold Conditioning model
• The danger of escalation and war by miscalculation


• China’s strategy towards Taiwan


• How Australia can resist coercion below the threshold of war


• The most important lesson for the next generation of strategists

This is a wide-ranging discussion about the enduring relationship between force, politics and strategic judgement—and what happens when governments possess enormous military power but lack a realistic political end state.

ABOUT SIR LAWRENCE FREEDMAN

Sir Lawrence Freedman is one of the world’s leading scholars of strategy and war. His influential books include Strategy: A History, Command and The Future of War. His work has shaped contemporary thinking about military power, political decision-making and the changing character of conflict.

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Could the November 2026 US midterms reshape Donald Trump’s presidency—and how far would the consequences travel beyond America?

Dr John Bruni welcomes Professor Scott Lucas to The Focus for a discussion of the prospect of a Democratic “blue wave”, the pressures facing the Republican Party, and the capacity of America’s institutions to hold presidential power accountable.

At the centre of the conversation is a question with global implications: if Trump faces a serious electoral setback, what happens next?

The discussion explores Republican loyalty, JD Vance’s political future, election integrity, press freedom and the relationship between domestic political pressure and America’s behaviour abroad. For Australia and other US allies, these questions have direct implications for the reliability of American leadership and the assumptions underpinning their security.

Show Notes:

ABOUT SCOTT LUCAS

Professor Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin, and Professor Emeritus of International Politics at the University of Birmingham. He is also the founder and editor of EA WorldView, which provides news and analysis of US politics and international affairs.

An academic and journalist, Scott specialises in American politics and foreign policy, media and propaganda, and intelligence services. He brings decades of experience to examining presidential power, the resilience of democratic institutions and the global consequences of political change in Washington.

Read Scott’s analysis at EA WorldView.

Have your say:
Would a major Republican defeat weaken Trump’s hold on the party? And should Australia be doing more to prepare for uncertainty in Washington?

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Host: Dr John Bruni
Guest: Professor Scott Lucas
Producers: Neil Smart & Lin Siah
A podcast of SAGE International.

Challenge the assumption, test the system, identify the consequence

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Hitting Russia harder might inflict more damage. But what turns that damage into victory—and what would victory actually look like?

Former US Army Europe commander Lieutenant General (Ret.) Ben Hodges joins Dr John Bruni on The Focus Podcast to examine Ukraine’s options, Russia’s vulnerabilities and the difficult choices facing Western governments.

At the centre of the conversation is a hard strategic question: how does striking Russia’s oil and gas export capacity translate into a decisive military outcome?

And there is a wider dilemma. If Russian energy exports are squeezed while conflict in the Middle East puts supplies under pressure, how much economic pain can Ukraine’s supporters absorb? Military forces themselves need fuel—and the ability to sustain a war matters as much as the ability to strike.

We explore:


• The link between economic damage and battlefield results.


• What a credible strategy for Ukrainian victory requires.


• The energy pressures facing both military forces and civilian economies.


• Whether Western ambition is matched by the resources and resolve to deliver.

A direct conversation about the gap between hitting harder and achieving a lasting strategic result.

What do you think: what would turn pressure on Russia into a decisive outcome? Leave your view in the comments.

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#Ukraine #BenHodges #Russia

Show Notes:

ABOUT BEN HODGES

Lieutenant General (Ret.) Ben Hodges served as Commanding General of United States Army Europe from 2014 to 2017 and previously commanded NATO Allied Land Command in İzmir, Turkey, from 2012 to 2014.

A 1980 graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point, he served in the US Army for nearly four decades. His operational experience included commanding the 1st Brigade Combat Team of the 101st Airborne Division in Iraq and serving as Director of Operations for Regional Command South in Kandahar, Afghanistan.

He retired in January 2018 and subsequently held the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis.

BOOK

Future War and the Defence of Europe (Oxford University Press, 2021)
By John R. Allen, Frederick Ben Hodges and Julian Lindley-French.

An examination of Europe’s defence challenges, the future of NATO and the transatlantic relationship, and the ways changing technology is reshaping deterrence and warfare. The authors consider what European states and their allies must do to preserve peace and build credible defence capabilities.

Book information — Oxford University Press

ABOUT THE HOST

Dr John Bruni is the founder and CEO of SAGE International and host of The Focus Podcast. His work examines geopolitics, defence, international security and strategic decision-making.

JOIN THE CONVERSATION

What would a credible strategy for Ukrainian victory require—and are Western governments prepared to sustain it?

Share your thoughts in the comments, subscribe to The Focus Podcast, and share this episode with others interested in the choices shaping European security.

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