At midyear 2026, agility is no longer just a strategic advantage — it is a requirement for navigating structural change. In part two of this two-part series, The Decisive host Kristen Hallam continues the conversation with S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Ken Wattrett, Laurence Allan and Eric Johnson to explore how AI is showing up across the three strategic themes for 2026 outlined in the Age of Agility report.

AI is presented as a connective force across the Age of Agility themes: it is supporting economic growth through major investment, reshaping geopolitical power dynamics through emerging technologies, and forcing companies to adapt to new trade and logistics realities. The discussion also flags a key risk: AI is a powerful growth engine, but dependence on one investment theme could create concentration risks if the boom proves uneven or short-lived.

The experts also discuss what they are watching for the rest of 2026 and into 2027 including:

• Fiscal pressure and debt sustainability
• Middle East conflict and energy market volatility
• AI as a growth driver — and a concentration risk
• Supply chain regionalization
• Trade policy and USMCA negotiations

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Age of Agility report
• Global Economic Outlook: June 2026
• Geopolitical Risk Brief: June 2026
• US warehousing expanding faster at key inland hubs

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Monthly Macro Monitor
• Frequently asked question: Do the effects of prior oil price shocks provide any pointers for the period ahead?

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: Ken Wattret, Eric Johnson, Laurence Allan
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Ken Wattret, vice president of global economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about frequently asked client questions on the recent oil shock, the conflict in the Middle East and the possible implications for the global economy.

The conversation was originally recorded on May 12 and considers how the jump in crude prices compares with past oil shocks, why the length of the disruption is critical, which economies appear most exposed, and what indicators can help track the effects on growth, inflation and monetary policy.

Ken explains that the increase in Brent crude prices following the start of the Middle East conflict was unusually large, with the monthly rise exceeding 40%. He cautions that the shock is still unfolding and that shortages, if they develop, could intensify the negative effects on global growth.

Although S&P Global Market Intelligence's base case still points to continued global expansion, Ken says the global real GDP growth forecast has been revised down markedly since February. Ken says global growth surprised to the upside in 2025 despite extreme uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, repeated tariff announcements and fears of retaliation, suggesting economies have adjusted to repeated shocks in recent years.

Key risks discussed in the episode include a failure to reach an agreement to end the conflict, a resumption or spread of hostilities, more persistent disruptions to energy production and supply, higher-for-longer prices, possible shortages, stronger inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates and asset-price problems.

Listen to the full episode for Ken Wattret's perspective on how the oil shock could affect global growth, inflation and monetary policy — and what indicators may signal where the risks are headed next.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Midyear Economic Check-In
• Geopolitical Risk Brief: June 2026
• Banking Risk Monthly Outlook: July 2026

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Monthly Macro Monitor
• Middle East war

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Ken Wattret
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive, host Paul Smith is joined by senior economists Andrew Harker and Phil Smith to discuss the latest signals from the global Purchasing Managers' Index™ (PMI™) data and what they reveal about the direction of the world economy.

The conversation revisits key themes from the previous PMI episode, including stockpiling, uncertainty, supply chain disruption and inflation risks linked to the tensions in the Middle East and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The economists explain how recent PMI data suggest some easing in inflation pressures and uncertainty, although both remain elevated compared with historical norms.

The episode also explores why high-frequency PMI data can be especially valuable during periods of economic volatility, helping businesses, policymakers and forecasters assess turning points before slower-moving official data becomes available. Paul discusses how PMI signals can be combined with broader macroeconomic projections to provide a clearer view of both near-term conditions and longer-term trends.

Other topics include the outlook for the eurozone economy, global export conditions, the continued impact of tariffs, and the divergence between weaker PMI export readings and stronger official export data driven in part by AI-related demand. Phil and Andrew highlight how the AI boom is showing up in semiconductor prices, manufacturing performance and capital expenditure intentions, particularly in the US.

The episode closes with a look ahead to future PMI research on AI adoption and its impact on the workforce. This is the final episode before the summer break, with The Decisive returning in August for more insights and analysis.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• PMI data and commentary
• Global Economic Outlook: July 2026
• Click here to learn how the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and the World Economic Service (WES) help corporate planners interpret shifting global growth signals

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Middle East war
• Policy rate prospects

Credits:

• Host: Paul Smith
• Guests: Andrew Harker, Phil Smith
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun