The global economy is facing its weakest growth outlook since 2009. What happens when geopolitical conflict collides with an already fragile energy market?

In this episode of The Decisive, we examine the cascading macroeconomic impacts of recent global disruptions and the resulting negative supply shocks that have forced economists to revise their forecasts. With global real GDP growth downgraded to just 2.4% and inflation projections rising due to energy and food prices, the economic divide between oil-exporting and oil-importing nations is becoming ever more pronounced.

What You'll Learn:

The Macro Outlook
Discover why growth forecasts have been lowered and what our base-case assumption of $100/barrel oil means for the delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding recession.

The Great Divide
Explore the stark contrast in economic fortunes: Energy exporters like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are weathering the storm, while highly vulnerable importers such as India, Egypt, and the Philippines face more acute macroeconomic pressures.

Central Bank Dilemmas
Understand how major central banks worldwide are navigating the difficult choice between taming persistent inflation and preventing an economic downturn—and why their responses could determine the trajectory of the global economy.

Beyond the Barrel
Uncover the hidden vulnerabilities in global supply chains, from refined fuels and fertilizers to the unexpected fallout in non-oil sectors like tourism, logistics, and real estate across the Middle East and Asia Pacific.

Regional Deep Dives
Get detailed analysis of how the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and Asia Pacific (APAC) regions are experiencing these shocks differently, with vulnerability indices revealing which countries face the greatest macro-financial risks.

Join our experts for a comprehensive, data-driven breakdown of vulnerabilities, inflation dynamics, and macroeconomic risks defining the global economy today.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Global Economic Outlook: April 2026
• Picture This: What Middle East Supply Disruptions Mean for the Asia-Pacific Region
• Click here for our special report on the impact of the Middle East war on commodity prices

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Middle East war
• Global Executive Summary

Credits:

• Host: Ken Wattret
• Guests: Ralf Wiegert, Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Diego Iscaro, Ben Herzon
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

As pivotal elections approach in the United States, Brazil, and Ethiopia, global businesses are navigating a rapidly evolving landscape of risks and opportunities. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts John Raines (Head of North America Country Risk), Rafael Amiel (Head of Latin America Economics), and Jordan Anderson (Principal Analyst, Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk) to examine how political outcomes through 2026 will influence government stability, economic policy, and geopolitical risk well into 2027 and beyond.

Listeners will gain exclusive insights into potential market volatility as the panel explores the implications of the U.S. midterms, Brazil's presidential race, and Ethiopia's general elections. The discussion covers how shifting political dynamics may impact trade, supply chains, regulatory frameworks, and fiscal strategies—key considerations for multinational corporations and investors.

Key topics include:

• Election outlooks in the U.S., Brazil, and Ethiopia and their impact on government stability
• Fiscal and monetary policy risks in Brazil and the U.S.
• Geopolitical and security risks in Ethiopia, including implications for regional stability and foreign investment
• Trade negotiations and the strategic role of commodities in Brazil's foreign policy
• Key indicators to monitor ahead of major elections for early risk detection

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Geopolitical Risk Brief: April 2026
• Russia-Ukraine War: Three Conflict Development Pathways in the Next 12 Months
• Click here to subscribe to our Geopolitical and Economic Risk Monthly newsletter

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Global Executive Summary: Conflict-related economic fallout to continue
• Middle East war
• Currency outlooks

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: John Raines, Rafael Amiel, Jordan Anderson
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Yan Hoong for an outlook on the electronics and semiconductor landscape through 2026—taken from a March 12 client webinar.

Yan explains why memory remains a big source of procurement and pricing anxiety, with tightness persisting in both advanced and conventional memory as suppliers shift capacity toward higher-end products. Yan unpacks how this constraint is already spilling into downstream categories like computers and communications equipment, and why price pressure could linger until new capacity meaningfully comes online in late 2027 to 2028.

The conversation also broadens beyond AI hype: while AI and data centers continue to pull demand (especially for high-bandwidth memory and advanced DRAM), Yan points to a gradual recovery in the broader electronics cycle, with mixed signals across end markets. Aerospace and defense and AI-led infrastructure stand out as growth areas, while consumer electronics and automotive remain softer, reinforced by slowing light vehicle production and divergent PMI new order trends.

Finally, Yan breaks down the January 2026 Section 232 tariff announcement, outlining how its pricing impact on US semiconductors may be limited due to narrow scope and broad exemptions for domestic use, with exposure more concentrated in re-export pathways. The episode closes by connecting pricing dynamics across regions—highlighting how memory-heavy supply chains are driving sharper producer price escalation in places like South Korea—while legacy components remain comparatively stable.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Electronics Supply Chain Outlook
• Click here for our special report on the impact of the Middle East war on commodity prices
• Click here to access our webinar on powering AI infrastructure in a volatile world
• Subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter.

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report)
• Purchasing Environment
• US tariff plans

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Yan Hoong
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In the first episode of season 6 of The Decisive podcast, S&P Global Market Intelligence's Jason Kaplan unpacks why 2026 is shaping up as a "risk-on" commodities environment—with steady but subdued global growth, rising volatility, and a deepening flight to safety that's pushing risk premiums across key markets.

Jason, a senior economist in the Pricing and Purchasing team, connects macroeconomic signals to real-world pricing and trade flows, including how tariffs and regionalization are re-splitting markets after years of prices moving in lockstep. With a year of tariff data now visible, Jason details how Section 232-era aluminum tariffs and downstream copper-product tariffs are showing up in U.S. prices, collapsing imports, and widening regional differentials—with a caveat that the full cost burden for U.S. manufacturers may still be ahead.

On the metals side, the episode dives into copper's structurally tight supply picture, the unique stress points in aluminum's midstream, and the U.S. Midwest premium, plus what's driving turning points in nickel, tin, and zinc.

Finally, recorded just as geopolitical tensions escalated, Jason discusses why the published forecast does not yet fully incorporate the Iranian conflict—and what could change as updated macro assumptions are released, including particular sensitivity for Gulf-linked aluminum supply risks.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Commodity Price Watch Monthly: March 2026
• US resin shippers look to tap new customers amid Iran war
• Click here to subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter.

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report)
• Purchasing Environment
• US tariff plans

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Jason Kaplan
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

In our last episode of Season 5, host Kristen Hallam sits down with Chris Rogers, S&P Global Market Intelligence's head of supply chain research, to analyze the moments when supply chains gets stressed—and the playbooks that keep goods moving anyway.

From ongoing Red Sea security disruptions that forced ocean carriers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, reshaping transit times, capacity, and cost, to the more everyday shocks that ripple through transportation networks, this episode explores what resilience looks like when it's operational—not aspirational.

Chris discusses how leading supply chain teams respond under pressure with creative routing, smarter inventory positioning, and faster decision cycles, and why resilience today is less about a single "backup plan" and more about building options: diversified sourcing, flexible modes, and contracts designed for uncertainty.

Along the way, we translate hard-won lessons into practical best practices—how to stress-test logistics networks, where agility creates the most value, and how resilient organizations balance service, cost, and risk without overcorrecting.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Picture This: India Plans New Smartphone Supply Chain Incentives
• Click here to subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter.
• Click here to learn more about Breakbulk26

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Supply Chain Edge: Tracing Middle East supply chain dependencies, investigating new corridors, tracking CHPIs
• Moving from price to shortages: Regional supply chain exposures to Middle East conflict
• US tariff plans

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Chris Rogers
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

As the global transition to clean energy, advanced technology, and artificial intelligence accelerates, the demand for critical minerals—including copper, lithium, and rare earth elements—is reshaping supply chains and intensifying geopolitical competition. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, host Kristen Hallam leads a discussion with S&P Global Market Intelligence experts to examine the evolving landscape of critical minerals.

The panel explores how changing definitions, trade flows, and strategic stockpiling are influencing both businesses and governments worldwide. Senior Supply Chain Analyst Eric Oak discusses the complexities of critical mineral classifications and shifting global trade patterns. Senior Economist Jason Kaplan provides insight into the tightening supply-demand balance for copper, price volatility, and procurement strategies. Carla Selman, Head of Latin America Country Risk, analyzes Latin America's strategic role in the minerals sector and the impact of regional politics and alliances with the US and China. Economist David Vagenknecht offers a European perspective, focusing on the EU's ambitions for strategic autonomy, challenges in domestic processing, and the balance between environmental leadership and resource security.

This episode delivers actionable insights for business leaders, investors, and policymakers on building resilient supply chains, anticipating market shifts, and navigating the geopolitical dynamics shaping the future of critical minerals.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Commodity Price Watch: March 2026
• Global Economic Outlook: March 2026
• Click here to subscribe to our Supply Chain Essentials newsletter.

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report)
• Latin America's position in the critical minerals supply chain
• 2026: The age of agility

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guests: Eric Oak, Jason Kaplan, Carla Selman, David Vagenknecht
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

• PMI research home page
• Click here to access our exclusive client case study on PMI and sector-specific data
• Click here to subscribe to our Geopolitical and Economic Risk Monthly newsletter

• Comparative Industry Briefing
• Global Executive Summary: Choppy markets, resilient economies
• 2026: The age of agility

• Host: Paul Smith
• Guests: Andrew Harker, Sian Jones
• Produced By: Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun

The US labor market is no longer running hot — but it isn't freezing up, either. In this episode of The Decisive, S&P Global Market Intelligence economist Juan Turcios unpacks what a "softening" labor market really looks like in late 2025 and into 2026, and why the headline numbers don't tell the whole story.

We dig into the sharp slowdown in payroll growth since the post-pandemic boom, the steady rise in the unemployment rate from its 2023 cyclical low, and the increasing concentration of job gains in a handful of sectors — especially healthcare. Juan also explores what's happening beneath the surface: a cooling appetite to hire, fewer workers quitting, and companies trying to get more output from the employees they already have.

Our economist also examines the supply-side forces reshaping the workforce, including slower labor force growth tied to immigration policy shifts and the longer-run drag from an aging population — trends that are changing participation rates and influencing where jobs are being created.

Finally, we look ahead to what this means for productivity, real wages, and the broader US growth outlook, while addressing a critical wild card: growing concerns about the reliability of monthly labor data as survey response rates decline.

Listen now to gain insights that could impact your business decisions and strategy.

More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

• Global Economic Outlook: February 2026
• Picture This: Escalating Marine and Aviation Risks in the Middle East
• Click here to subscribe to our Geopolitical and Economic Risk Monthly newsletter.

For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

• Global Executive Summary: Choppy markets, resilient economies
• US GDP tracking
• 2026: The age of agility

Credits:

• Host: Kristen Hallam
• Guest: Juan Turcios
• Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
• Edited By: Marz Marcello
• Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun