エピソード

  • PMI in Focus: Strong Output, Weak Confidence

    PMI in Focus: Strong Output, Weak Confidence
    2026/09/19

    In this episode of The Decisive, host Paul Smith is joined by fellow economists Andrew Harker and Tim Moore to discuss the latest Purchasing Managers' Index data and what it reveals about the global economy, regional growth trends and construction-sector momentum.

    Despite persistent headwinds — including geopolitical uncertainty, inflation concerns, supply chain disruption and unsettled bond markets — global business activity has shown notable resilience. The discussion explores the factors supporting growth across services and manufacturing, while also examining why business confidence remains subdued despite stronger output.

    The episode also looks at PMI coverage across the Middle East, including signs of improving momentum in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The conversation highlights the launch of the alrajhi capital Saudi Construction Index, which provides new monthly insight into residential, nonresidential and infrastructure activity in the region's largest construction market.

    Paul, Andrew and Tim also compare Saudi construction trends with long-running construction PMI surveys in Europe and the UK, where housing activity remains under pressure from cautious demand, higher financing costs and economic uncertainty.

    More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

    • GCC economies demonstrate resilience in August
    • Global Economic Outlook: September 2026
    • Click here for the latest PMI Pulse data wrap

    For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

    • Monthly Macro Monitor
    • Middle East war
    • Policy rate prospects

    Credits:

    • Host: Paul Smith
    • Guests: Andrew Harker, Tim Moore
    • Produced By: Kristen Hallam
    • Edited By: Marz Marcello
    • Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
    続きを読む 一部表示
    17 分
  • US Midterm Elections: Scenarios, Stakes and Significance

    US Midterm Elections: Scenarios, Stakes and Significance
    2026/09/26
    The 2026 US midterm elections will shape control of Congress, influence policymaking at the federal and state levels, and help set the political landscape ahead of the 2028 presidential race. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with John Raines, Head of North America Country Risk at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about how scenario-based analysis can provide a more useful view of the elections than headline polling alone. They examine the forces affecting key congressional and gubernatorial races, including the cost of living, energy prices, trade policy and growing debate over AI and data centers. Kristen and John explore potential outcomes for the House and Senate and what each could mean for the US policy environment. Topics include the outlook for taxation, regulation, permitting, immigration enforcement and government spending, as well as the potential for legislative gridlock, funding disputes and increased congressional oversight. The episode also considers polling limitations, the possibility of delayed or contested results, and the implications for businesses navigating continued political uncertainty. Listen to learn: Why election analysis benefits from scenarios rather than a single forecastWhat makes the 2026 midterms significant for US federal and state policyWhich economic and policy issues could shape voter decisionsWhy businesses may need to prepare for several possible policy environments More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Geopolitical Risk Brief: September 2026Picture This: 2026 US Midterm Elections Could Reshape Policy RiskUS flash PMI signals fastest growth for over five years in September For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Scenario analysis of US midterm electionsMiddle East warPolicy rate prospects Credits: Host: Kristen HallamGuest: John RainesProduced By: Kristen HallamEdited By: Marz MarcelloPublished With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun
    続きを読む 一部表示
    27 分
  • Super El Niño: How Weather Shocks Ripple Through the Global Economy

    Super El Niño: How Weather Shocks Ripple Through the Global Economy
    2026/10/03

    A potential Super El Niño could be far more than a weather event. It could become a global supply-side shock, disrupting food production, energy systems, mining, transport and trade while adding to inflation and political instability. In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, adapted from a Sept. 9 S&P Global Market Intelligence client webinar, experts examine how extreme weather could compound existing pressures across Asia-Pacific, Sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the wider global economy.

    Listen to learn:
    • Why a Super El Niño could produce a synchronized shock across agriculture, energy and logistics
    • Why food prices—especially rice, wheat, cocoa, vegetable oil and sugar—are a critical channel into inflation, household spending and policy intervention
    • Where drought, flooding and water stress pose the greatest risks to hydropower, mining, manufacturing and export infrastructure
    • Which markets warrant close monitoring
    • Which indicators companies should monitor over the next 90 days to judge whether risks are stabilizing or escalating

    More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

    • Picture This: Super El Niño Spurs Stagflationary Impulse in the Global Economy
    • Geopolitical Risk Brief: September 2026
    • Global Economic Outlook: September 2026

    For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

    • Impact of super El Niño
    • Super El Niño 2026-27: Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa
    • El Niño 2026–27: Agriculture, macroeconomic and policy implications for APAC

    Credits:

    • Host: Susan Minio
    • Guests: Justin Valentino, Ahmad Mobeen, Martin Roberts
    • Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
    • Edited By: Marz Marcello
    • Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun
    続きを読む 一部表示
    48 分
  • Emerging Market Perspectives: The Cost of Capital and the Digital Divide

    Emerging Market Perspectives: The Cost of Capital and the Digital Divide
    2026/10/10

    Higher sovereign bond yields are raising the cost of money across the global economy, with significant implications for emerging markets. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Thea Fourie, Head of Middle East and Africa Insights and Analysis at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about the forces keeping borrowing costs elevated and why some economies are better positioned than others to withstand the pressure.

    The conversation also explores the opportunities and transition risks created by artificial intelligence. Thea discusses how gaps in infrastructure, digital access, workforce skills and capital could widen the divide between economies—and what governments and businesses can do to improve AI readiness. She also previews El Niño as a key risk to watch in 2027, with potential consequences for growth, inflation, interest rates and government support.

    In this episode, we discuss:
    • Why sovereign bond yields have reached multi-decade highs
    • How higher borrowing costs affect governments, businesses and households
    • What makes some African and Middle Eastern economies more resilient than others
    • Why electricity, digital access and workforce skills are central to AI readiness

    More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

    • Picture This: Sovereign yields have risen to multi-decade highs in major markets
    • Picture This: Super El Niño Spurs Stagflationary Impulse in the Global Economy
    • Global Economic Outlook: September 2026

    For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

    • Sovereign yield FAQs: Increases, implications and indicators of crises
    • Impact of super El Niño
    • Super El Niño 2026-27: Impact on Sub-Saharan Africa

    Credits:

    • Host: Kristen Hallam
    • Guest: Thea Fourie
    • Produced By: Kristen Hallam
    • Edited By: Marz Marcello
    • Published With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun
    続きを読む 一部表示
    15 分
  • AI Data Centers: Boom, Bottlenecks and Backlash

    AI Data Centers: Boom, Bottlenecks and Backlash
    2026/10/17
    Data centers have become one of the most visible symbols of the global AI investment boom. But turning ambitious plans into operational capacity will depend on far more than demand for computing power. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with three S&P Global Market Intelligence experts about the economic, construction, policy and security risks shaping the expansion of AI infrastructure. Jeannine Cataldi, associate director for Construction, examines the practical constraints facing data center projects, including access to power, water, land, critical materials and skilled labor. She explains how rising costs, regulatory scrutiny and community opposition could redirect investment from established hubs toward secondary markets with more predictable development pathways. Bibianna Norek, principal analyst for Europe/CIS Country Risk, explores Europe's efforts to balance AI investment with regulation, sustainability requirements and local planning rules. She also discusses the growing importance of social license and the physical security risks facing data centers as they become increasingly important pieces of critical infrastructure. Ben Herzon, co-head of U.S. Economics, assesses the AI investment cycle's contribution to US economic growth. Although AI remains a relatively small part of the overall economy, its rapid expansion has become a significant driver of business investment—and a potential source of broader market risk if expectations about future profitability are revised. Listen to learn: How infrastructure constraints may shift investment into new regions and secondary marketsHow community opposition and geopolitical tensions are changing the security environmentWhy a reassessment of AI company valuations could matter more to the US economy than a slowdown in construction More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: How AI Is Reshaping the Global Economic OutlookPicture This: An Uneven AI TransitionGeopolitical Risk Brief: September 2026 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): SCENARIO: Uneven AI TransitionData centers in Europe: Boost to construction, power and water constraintsData centers in the Americas: Opportunities and challenges for the construction industry Credits: Host: Kristen HallamGuests: Jeannine Cataldi, Bibianna Norek, Ben HerzonProduced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen HallamEdited By: Marz MarcelloPublished With Assistance From: Feranmi Adeoshun
    続きを読む 一部表示
    30 分
  • Frequently Asked Questions: Sovereign Yields, AI Productivity and the US Dollar

    Frequently Asked Questions: Sovereign Yields, AI Productivity and the US Dollar
    2026/09/12
    In this episode of The Decisive, Kristen Hallam speaks with Ken Wattret, Vice President of Global Economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, who answers frequently asked questions shaping the macroeconomic outlook: why sovereign yields have been rising, whether AI-driven productivity gains could lower inflation and policy rates, and what a weaker US dollar could mean for the global economy. This conversation was recorded in May 2026, and the questions are still top of mind today. Ken explains that sovereign bond yields have moved higher as markets reassess inflation risks, central bank policy expectations and the sustainability of public finances. Higher energy prices have lifted inflation expectations, while concerns about second-round effects — from input costs to food prices — have added pressure. At the same time, investors are increasingly focused on high budget deficits and rising debt burdens, which may require higher returns to hold sovereign bonds. The conversation then turns to the UK, where sovereign yields have risen more than in other G7 markets. Ken highlights the UK's persistent inflation challenge, the prospect of renewed Bank of England rate hikes, elevated public debt and lingering investor sensitivity after the gilt-market volatility of 2022. Kristen and Ken also discuss whether an AI-driven productivity pickup could eventually lead to lower inflation and central bank policy rates. Ken describes this as an active and complex debate, especially in the US. While AI investment may support stronger productivity, he cautions that demand linked to AI spending has already increased, while the productivity gains have not yet been fully realized. Finally, the episode examines the US dollar. Ken explains that the dollar had weakened notably before rebounding during the early stages of the Middle East conflict, as safe-haven flows returned. Looking through near-term volatility, he says several fundamentals — including the dollar's still-high valuation, persistent US current account deficits and expected shifts in interest-rate differentials — point to further depreciation over time. A weaker dollar could help some economies offset imported inflation from higher energy prices, but for the US, the impact would be more mixed, particularly if the decline were sharp. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: How AI Is Reshaping the Global Economic OutlookGlobal Economic Outlook: August 2026Picture This: US-Japan Yen intervention signals growing concern over global financial stability For S&P Global subscribers (login required): How El Niño will impact growth and inflation across major Latin American economiesPolicy rate prospects Credits: Host: Kristen HallamGuest: Ken WattretProduced By: Kristen HallamEdited By: Marz MarcelloPublished With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
    続きを読む 一部表示
    17 分
  • Can Trucking Keep Up With the Data Center Boom?

    Can Trucking Keep Up With the Data Center Boom?
    2026/09/05
    Every new gigawatt of data center capacity requires a massive physical build-out: steel, concrete, cooling systems, backup power, transformers, heavy equipment, server racks and supporting infrastructure. By one estimate, each gigawatt of new U.S. data center capacity could require roughly 100,000 truckloads, according to one estimate. In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Bill Cassidy, Senior Editor, Trucking and Domestic Transportation at the Journal of Commerce by S&P Global, and Paul Bingham, Director, Transportation Consulting, S&P Global Market Intelligence, about why data center construction is a freight capacity story. The conversation explores how surging demand from data center projects is arriving as the U.S. trucking market emerges from a post-pandemic freight recession, with capacity tightening, operating costs rising and regulatory enforcement removing some drivers and equipment from the market. As data center freight competes with retail, manufacturing, housing, energy and infrastructure shipments, shippers may face higher transportation costs, tighter capacity and more complex procurement decisions. Bill and Paul also discuss how demand is spreading across transportation modes — from flatbed and heavy-haul trucking to dry van, less-than-truckload, intermodal rail, ocean shipping and air cargo — and why shippers may consider adopting a more integrated, end-to-end view of logistics planning for major construction projects. The episode also previews themes that will be explored at the Journal of Commerce's Inland 26 Conference in Chicago, including freight demand, rates, capacity, network resilience and the broader economic outlook for transportation. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Data centers pulling on already shrinking pool of US truck capacityBreakbulk industry warily wades into AIClick here to register for the Inland26 conference For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Chokepoints vs. shortcuts: Supply chain outlook for critical maritime routesRed Sea maritime and aviation risks Credits: Host: Kristen HallamGuests: Bill Cassidy, Paul BinghamProduced By: Kristen HallamEdited By: Marz MarcelloPublished With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
    続きを読む 一部表示
    38 分
  • Global Growth on Uneven Ground: AI Tailwinds and Fiscal Headwinds

    Global Growth on Uneven Ground: AI Tailwinds and Fiscal Headwinds
    2026/08/29
    In this episode of The Decisive, taken from a July 15 webinar, S&P Global Market Intelligence economists discuss the latest shifts in the global macroeconomic outlook, including the resilience of the US economy, China's growth profile, political and fiscal developments in Latin America, and Europe's cautious recovery amid persistent energy, trade and consumer-demand headwinds. Key themes · Shaky economic foundations remain the core global theme. Geopolitical uncertainty, unstable inflation and interest-rate dynamics, trade frictions and strained public finances continue to weigh on the outlook. · The US economy continues to show resilience. Lower energy intensity, AI-related investment and stronger equity valuations have helped support growth. · Asia Pacific growth is still highly export-dependent. China and several regional economies continue to benefit from technology- and AI-related demand, while soft domestic demand and inflation risks remain key vulnerabilities. · Latin America may be seeing an upside risk from political change. A shift toward more market-oriented policy agendas could improve investment conditions, although fiscal adjustment remains a major challenge across several economies. · Europe has weathered the energy shock better than in past crises, but growth remains modest. Lower energy intensity, healthier labor markets and softer energy prices have helped, while weak consumer demand, trade uncertainty, industrial softness and limited fiscal room continue to constrain the outlook. Why it matters The episode underscores how global growth is being shaped by a mix of resilience and fragility. AI investment, lower energy intensity and improving policy prospects in some regions are offering support, while geopolitical shocks, sticky inflation, strained public finances, weak domestic demand and fragile trade conditions continue to limit the upside. For businesses and investors, the outlook requires close attention to regional differences, policy shifts and the channels through which energy, technology and fiscal risks affect growth. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Global Economic Outlook: August 2026How AI Is Reshaping the Global Economic OutlookGeopolitical Risk Brief: August 2026 For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Monthly Macro Monitor: Global economy shrugging off persistent uncertaintyRecent economic resilience to shocks: So far so good, but don't take it for granted Credits: Host: Ken WattretGuests: Ben Herzon, Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, Rafael Amiel, Raj BadianiProduced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen HallamEdited By: Marz MarcelloPublished With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
    続きを読む 一部表示
    35 分