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  • The Age of Agility: Midyear Signals for 2026 - Part 2

    The Age of Agility: Midyear Signals for 2026 - Part 2
    2026/07/04

    At midyear 2026, agility is no longer just a strategic advantage — it is a requirement for navigating structural change. In part two of this two-part series, The Decisive host Kristen Hallam continues the conversation with S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Ken Wattrett, Laurence Allan and Eric Johnson to explore how AI is showing up across the three strategic themes for 2026 outlined in the Age of Agility report.

    AI is presented as a connective force across the Age of Agility themes: it is supporting economic growth through major investment, reshaping geopolitical power dynamics through emerging technologies, and forcing companies to adapt to new trade and logistics realities. The discussion also flags a key risk: AI is a powerful growth engine, but dependence on one investment theme could create concentration risks if the boom proves uneven or short-lived.

    The experts also discuss what they are watching for the rest of 2026 and into 2027 including:

    • Fiscal pressure and debt sustainability
    • Middle East conflict and energy market volatility
    • AI as a growth driver — and a concentration risk
    • Supply chain regionalization
    • Trade policy and USMCA negotiations

    More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

    • Age of Agility report
    • Global Economic Outlook: June 2026
    • Geopolitical Risk Brief: June 2026
    • US warehousing expanding faster at key inland hubs

    For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

    • Monthly Macro Monitor
    • Frequently asked question: Do the effects of prior oil price shocks provide any pointers for the period ahead?

    Credits:

    • Host: Kristen Hallam
    • Guests: Ken Wattret, Eric Johnson, Laurence Allan
    • Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
    • Edited By: Marz Marcello
    • Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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    18 分
  • Frequently Asked Questions: Oil Shocks, Economic Resilience and Risks to Growth

    Frequently Asked Questions: Oil Shocks, Economic Resilience and Risks to Growth
    2026/07/11

    In this episode of The Decisive, host Kristen Hallam speaks with Ken Wattret, vice president of global economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about frequently asked client questions on the recent oil shock, the conflict in the Middle East and the possible implications for the global economy.

    The conversation was originally recorded on May 12 and considers how the jump in crude prices compares with past oil shocks, why the length of the disruption is critical, which economies appear most exposed, and what indicators can help track the effects on growth, inflation and monetary policy.

    Ken explains that the increase in Brent crude prices following the start of the Middle East conflict was unusually large, with the monthly rise exceeding 40%. He cautions that the shock is still unfolding and that shortages, if they develop, could intensify the negative effects on global growth.

    Although S&P Global Market Intelligence's base case still points to continued global expansion, Ken says the global real GDP growth forecast has been revised down markedly since February. Ken says global growth surprised to the upside in 2025 despite extreme uncertainty over U.S. trade policy, repeated tariff announcements and fears of retaliation, suggesting economies have adjusted to repeated shocks in recent years.

    Key risks discussed in the episode include a failure to reach an agreement to end the conflict, a resumption or spread of hostilities, more persistent disruptions to energy production and supply, higher-for-longer prices, possible shortages, stronger inflation, higher-for-longer interest rates and asset-price problems.

    Listen to the full episode for Ken Wattret's perspective on how the oil shock could affect global growth, inflation and monetary policy — and what indicators may signal where the risks are headed next.

    More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

    • Midyear Economic Check-In
    • Geopolitical Risk Brief: June 2026
    • Banking Risk Monthly Outlook: July 2026

    For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

    • Monthly Macro Monitor
    • Middle East war

    Credits:

    • Host: Kristen Hallam
    • Guest: Ken Wattret
    • Produced By: Kristen Hallam
    • Edited By: Marz Marcello
    • Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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    22 分
  • The Age of Agility: Midyear Signals for 2026

    The Age of Agility: Midyear Signals for 2026
    2026/06/27

    At midyear 2026, volatility is no longer the backdrop — it is the operating environment. In this episode, host Kristen Hallam is joined by S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Ken Wattrett, Laurence Allan and Eric Johnson to revisit the Age of Agility strategic themes: shaky economic foundations, shifting asymmetric power and adapting to trade realities.

    The panel examines what has changed for decision-makers heading into the second half of 2026, from the Middle East conflict and oil price shocks to AI-driven investment, resource nationalism, trade disruption and the rewiring of global supply chains.

    The experts provide timely signals on where resilience may hold — and where risks are becoming even more interconnected.

    Listeners will learn:

    • How S&P Global Market Intelligence's 2026 "Age of Agility" strategic themes are holding up at midyear — and what has shifted.
    • Why geopolitical shocks, oil prices and fiscal constraints are reshaping the global economic outlook.
    • How trade routes and supply chains are being rewired by regionalization, choke points, tariffs and climate-related disruption.
    • How resource nationalism, critical minerals competition and emerging military technologies are changing geopolitical power dynamics.

    More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

    • Age of Agility report
    • Global Economic Outlook: June 2026
    • Geopolitical Risk Brief: June 2026
    • US warehousing expanding faster at key inland hubs

    For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

    • Monthly Macro Monitor
    • Frequently asked question: Do the effects of prior oil price shocks provide any pointers for the period ahead?

    Credits:

    • Host: Kristen Hallam
    • Guests: Ken Wattret, Eric Johnson, Laurence Allan
    • Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
    • Edited By: Marz Marcello
    • Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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    31 分
  • Uneven Demand, Tight Supply: Navigating the Next Procurement Challenge

    Uneven Demand, Tight Supply: Navigating the Next Procurement Challenge
    2026/06/20

    In this episode of The Decisive podcast, host Kristen Hallam shares highlights from a recent S&P Global Market Intelligence client webinar on the forces reshaping procurement strategy. The conversation explores how prolonged disruption in the Middle East is moving beyond energy markets and into broader supply chains, affecting shipping, chemicals, metals and industrial inputs.

    S&P Global Market Intelligence experts Emily Crowley, Gregory Muller and Maxwell Clarke examine why oil prices may stay higher for longer, why LNG markets are unlikely to repeat the extremes of 2022, and how AI-driven data center expansion is tightening capacity for transformers, electrical equipment, cooling systems and related components.

    This episode is designed for procurement professionals, supply chain leaders, corporate strategists, market intelligence teams and anyone tracking how geopolitical disruption, energy markets and AI investment are reshaping industrial input costs and equipment availability.

    What listeners will learn

    • Why procurement teams may not see meaningful price relief even as demand softens in parts of the economy
    • How inventory dynamics, shipping disruption and tariff uncertainty are shaping supplier behavior
    • Why data center construction is creating sustained pressure on electrical and cooling equipment markets
    • How companies can think about risk mitigation, contract management and inventory strategy in a constrained supply environment

    More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

    • Commodity Price Watch: June 2026
    • US retailers forecast early — and brief — peak shipping season
    • Picture This: Mexico's Avocado Exporters Look Beyond US Market

    For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

    • Commodity Price Watch Monthly (full report)
    • Key takeaways from April 2026 Pricing and Purchasing seminar briefings

    Credits:

    • Host: Emily Crowley
    • Guests: Gregory Muller, Maxwell Clarke
    • Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
    • Edited By: Marz Marcello
    • Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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    29 分
  • DRAMageddon: What AI Demand Means for Gaming Hardware Supply Chains

    DRAMageddon: What AI Demand Means for Gaming Hardware Supply Chains
    2026/06/13

    AI is reshaping more than software — it's putting intense pressure on the global semiconductor supply chain. In this special cross-post from Data & Dimensions, The Decisive brings you a timely conversation on how surging demand for AI infrastructure is driving a shortage of DRAM memory, raising costs across consumer technology, and forcing companies to rethink production, pricing, and inventory strategy.

    Host Neil Barbour speaks with Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, about the "DRAMageddon" unfolding across markets — from AI data centers and gaming hardware to smartphones, VR headsets, consoles, tariffs, and global trade.

    Key takeaways include:

    • How AI accelerators are absorbing semiconductor capacity and pushing DRAM prices higher
    • Why consumer electronics — including smartphones, VR headsets, and gaming consoles — are facing rising memory costs and supply constraints
    • What the DRAM shortage means for the gaming market ahead of major launches like Grand Theft Auto VI
    • How companies are shifting hardware production from mainland China to Vietnam amid tariff uncertainty
    • Why inflation, component shortages, and macroeconomic pressures could delay the next generation of consoles until 2028
    • What today's memory squeeze reveals about the broader intersection of AI, supply chains, global trade, and technology strategy

    For listeners of The Decisive, this episode offers a sharp look at how disruption moves through industries in real time — turning a technical bottleneck in semiconductor memory into a wider story about pricing power, production strategy, and the future of consumer technology.

    More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

    • Electronics Supply Chain Outlook
    • The Decisive | Season 6 Ep.2 - How Supply Constraints Are Defining Electronics Pricing
    • Video game profitability tracker: Positive, if precarious, margin trends in 2025

    For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

    • Parallel processes: Rising component costs bifurcate sector, limit PC manufacturing volumes
    • More than war: Q2 2026 corporate supply chain strategy outlook

    Credits:

    • Hosts: Neil Barbour
    • Guest: Chris Rogers
    • Produced By: Neil Barbour, Kristen Hallam
    • Edited By: Neil Barbour, Marz Marcello
    • Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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    26 分
  • From Free Trade to Managed Trade: The Next Phase of USMCA

    From Free Trade to Managed Trade: The Next Phase of USMCA
    2026/06/06
    In this episode of The Decisive Podcast, we examine the future of the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement at a moment of heightened political uncertainty and rising strategic tension across North America. With trilateral trade reaching roughly $1.8 trillion in the 12 months to August 2025, the stakes are high for governments, investors, and manufacturers alike as the 2026 review process unfolds. Drawing on insights from S&P Global Market Intelligence's Country Risk team, the discussion explores why North American supply chains have remained broadly resilient since the USMCA took effect, even through the pandemic and recent tariff shifts. Mexico continues to benefit from regionalization and reshoring trends, while the US is increasingly focused on trade deficits, investment screening, and the role of mainland Chinese firms using North America as a production platform. Canada, meanwhile, faces a more difficult negotiating environment, shaped by tariffs, political friction, and growing divergence with Washington on industrial policy, data rules, and trade alignment. The conversation also revisits four possible paths for the agreement's future, with a growing emphasis on annual renewals and incremental changes rather than a single long-term resolution. That approach could preserve US leverage over both Mexico and Canada, but it would also prolong uncertainty for businesses seeking predictability in cross-border investment and sourcing decisions. The experts assess where the toughest disputes are likely to emerge, including automotive rules of origin, labor standards, agriculture, energy policy, and data regulation. They also point to lower-risk areas such as trade facilitation and regulatory harmonization where technical progress may still be possible. A central theme is the shifting nature of the agreement itself. Rather than a traditional free trade framework, the experts describe the USMCA as evolving into a form of managed trade, one in which tariffs remain part of the landscape and negotiations increasingly serve broader strategic and political objectives. Trade policy is now intersecting more visibly with security concerns, domestic politics, and geopolitical competition, especially in the US-Mexico relationship. The episode closes with a look at the 2026 FIFA World Cup and the security landscape across the US, Canada, and Mexico. The experts assess terrorism, cartel violence, and protest risks around the tournament, concluding that while major disruptions are not the baseline expectation, authorities are preparing for a wide range of threats and operational challenges across all three host countries. If you're looking for a clear, forward-looking view of where North American trade talks may be headed — and what the next phase of USMCA negotiations could mean for supply chains, investment strategy, and regional stability — listen now. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Canada readies ambitious legislation to reform supply chainPicture This: World Cup Security RisksMediaTalk | Season 4 | Ep. 23 - FIFA World Cup 2026: Global Media Rights, Ads vs. Sponsors, and Streaming WarsClick here to sign up for our monthly Geopolitical and Economic Risk newsletter For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Assessing the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement ahead of 2026 reviewMexico, US hold first round of USMCA negotiationsMexi-Corridor: Transit route to connect the Pacific and Atlantic oceans Credits: Host: Kristen HallamGuests: John Raines, Jose Enrique Sevilla-MacipProduced By: Kristen HallamEdited By: Marz MarcelloPublished With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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    36 分
  • Resilience Tested: What's at Stake for the US Economy

    Resilience Tested: What's at Stake for the US Economy
    2026/05/30

    In this episode, taken from our May 19 client webinar, our economists unpack a high-stakes U.S. macro outlook shaped by geopolitical conflict, higher energy prices, sticky inflation, and change at the helm of the Federal Reserve.

    US GDP growth held up well in 2025, even as businesses and households faced historically high tariffs, volatility in financial markets and elevated uncertainty. This year brings a new source of risk: war in the Middle East. The U.S. economy should remain resilient in 2026, but growth is expected to slow to 1.6% as elevated oil prices and softer consumer spending weigh on activity.

    Our experts also explore why tariffs are still keeping prices elevated, why the Fed is expected to stay on hold through 2026, and why rate cuts are not projected to resume until June 2027.

    If you want a clear, scenario-based read on where the U.S. economy may be headed next—and what could change the path—this is the episode to queue up. A sharp, scenario-driven look at the 2026 U.S. economy—from oil shocks and inflation to tariffs, recession risk, and the Fed's next move.

    More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content:

    • Global Economic Outlook: May 2026
    • US Economic Pulse: Tax Day
    • Click here to sign up for our monthly Geopolitical and Economic Risk newsletter

    For S&P Global subscribers (login required):

    • Monthly Macro Monitor: The mounting economic costs of the Middle East conflict
    • US core PCE inflation rises to 3.3%; real spending up 0.1% in April
    • Frequently asked question: Should we be concerned about the labor force participation rate?

    Credits:

    • Host: Emily Crowley
    • Guests: Ben Herzon, Pat Newport, Michael Zdinak, Lawrence Nelson
    • Produced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen Hallam
    • Edited By: Marz Marcello
    • Published With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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    19 分
  • How AI Investment Is Influencing Labor Dynamics

    How AI Investment Is Influencing Labor Dynamics
    2026/05/25
    Artificial intelligence is no longer a future story — it is already shaping how companies invest, how governments respond, and how labor markets evolve. But adoption is unfolding unevenly, with major differences across sectors, firm sizes, and regions. In this episode, taken from a May 13 client webinar, we take a global look at the realities of AI adoption and its economic consequences. The discussion spans developed markets such as Germany, the UK, and Spain, where adoption is more advanced and often tied to productivity gains and workforce consolidation, as well as emerging economies including Brazil, India, and countries across Sub-Saharan Africa, where AI is more likely to complement labor and support output growth. Our experts also explore the widening gap between large enterprises and smaller firms. Larger companies are better positioned to deploy tailored, enterprise-wide AI strategies, while smaller businesses tend to adopt off-the-shelf tools more gradually and for narrower use cases. At the same time, the labor-market effects remain nuanced: routine tasks are being automated, demand is rising for roles in AI development, software engineering, data analytics, and operational support, and AI-driven layoffs remain limited relative to broader macroeconomic pressures. A key focus is the infrastructure and execution challenge facing frontier markets. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, unstable power grids, reliance on diesel generation, foreign-exchange liquidity constraints, and elevated operating costs are limiting the productivity gains that AI and data-center investment might otherwise deliver. In some markets, operating costs are inflated by 30% to 40%, underscoring the gap between AI ambition and implementation reality. The discussion concludes with a forward-looking assessment of AI's long-term impact: near-term efficiency gains are likely to outpace workforce displacement, but over time AI could reshape labor demand more fundamentally, with significant implications for growth, competitiveness, and job creation. If you're looking for a data-informed, globally comparative view of how AI is being adopted in practice — and what business leaders, investors, and policymakers should watch next — listen now. More S&P Global Market Intelligence Content: Picture this: AI rush sparks massive increase in US high-tech importsPMI data and commentaryClick here to read our full report on 2026 strategic themes For S&P Global subscribers (login required): Impact of AI investment on performance and labor dynamicsKey takeaways from April 2026 Pricing and Purchasing seminar briefingsSSA investment in data centers: Macroeconomic upside depends on deliverability Credits: Host: Kristen HallamGuests: Sophie Malin, Pollyanna De Lima, Alisa StrobelProduced By: Debbie Taylor, Kristen HallamEdited By: Marz MarcelloPublished With Assistance From: Sophie Carr, Feranmi Adeoshun
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    33 分