Hydrogen was once the golden child of the energy transition. Yet high costs and limited policy support proved high hurdles for the technology’s progress, global deployment has fallen well short of expectations. Forecasts now project around 5.5 million tons of production by 2030 – half of what was expected just a few years ago and far below industry and government ambitions. Of course, as with all things energy transition, the story gets more complicated the closer you look. The US is betting on blue hydrogen even as it turns away from many clean technologies, China is driving ahead with green, and India is emerging as a low-cost producer. And around the world, hydrogen is gradually gaining a foothold in hard-to-abate sectors like shipping and aviation, where the fuel could play a transformative role. On today’s show, Kobad Bhavnagri is joined by BloombergNEF’s head of hydrogen research, Martin Tengler, to discuss some of his team’s recent work, including “Hydrogen Supply Outlook 2025: Blue Takes the Lead” and “Ammonia Supply Outlook 2025: Tenders Shape Demand.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

Hydrogen Supply Outlook 2025: Blue Takes the Lead - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37489?context=eyJ0eXBlIjoiaW5zaWdodCIsInNvcnQiOiJkYXRlIiwicmVnaW9uIjpbXSwic2VjdG9yIjpbXSwiYXV0aG9yIjpbIjQwMjc3Il0sImluc2lnaHQtdHlwZSI6W119

Ammonia Supply Outlook 2025: Tenders Shape Demand - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37457?context=eyJ0eXBlIjoiaW5zaWdodCIsInNvcnQiOiJkYXRlIiwicmVnaW9uIjpbXSwic2VjdG9yIjpbXSwiYXV0aG9yIjpbIjQwMjc3Il0sImluc2lnaHQtdHlwZSI6W119

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In a few days’ time, world leaders will gather in Brazil for the COP30 climate conference. It’s been 10 years since the Paris Agreement laid out ambitions for a net-zero future, yet momentum is waning. Fewer than a third of nations have submitted their 2035 climate pledges, and current trajectories suggest that the global warming threshold agreed in Paris will be far exceeded by the end of the century. Political shifts, economic pressures, and the US’s withdrawal from the Agreement are all casting a shadow over the upcoming negotiations. Still, there are glimmers of progress, including China unveiling its first absolute emissions target and Brazil pushing for a global carbon market. So can COP30 reignite the collective drive toward net zero? On today’s show, Kobad Bhavnagri is joined by BloombergNEF’s head of global policy, Victoria Cuming, and energy transitions associate Brynne Mary Merkley to discuss their recent note “COP30 Climate Talks to Advance Amid Geopolitical Turmoil.”

Complementary BNEF research on the trends driving the transition to a lower-carbon economy can be found at BNEF on the Bloomberg Terminal or on bnef.com

Links to research notes from this episode:

COP30 Climate Talks to Advance Amid Geopolitical Turmoil - https://www.bnef.com/insights/37817

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Global energy investment is entering a period of realignment. Tariffs, inflation and geopolitical tensions have disrupted financial models, while a backlash against ESG along with renewed fossil fuel demand, driven partly by AI’s power needs, are redirecting capital flows. At the same time, electricity demand continues to rise, intensifying competition between clean and conventional energy. So how can investors and banks determine where their best opportunities lie, whether in clean technologies or fossil fuels?

At the BloombergNEF Summit London, Jonathan Luan, BNEF’s head of finance & investment research, moderated a panel titled “Weighing the Investment Opportunity: Conventional Versus Clean Energy.” This episode brings listeners that panel, which featured Ulrik Fugmann, Co-CIO, Environmental Strategies Group at BNPP Asset Management; Ralph Ibendahl, Managing Director, Global Head of Energy Transition for RBC Capital Markets; and Bianca Ziccarelli, Managing Director of CPPIB.

To learn more about BNEF’s Summits taking place around the world and to see recordings of BNEF Talks at previous Summits, head to https://about.bnef.com/events/type/summit/

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