『Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd』のカバーアート

Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd

Super Tuesdays with Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd

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Longtime political analysts Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd discuss the latest political news and how those stories will affect upcoming elections.

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  • Are Democrats Headed For A Blue Wave… Or A Blue Tsunami?

    Are Democrats Headed For A Blue Wave… Or A Blue Tsunami?
    2026/09/01
    Inside ten weeks to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza start with the race Republicans have suddenly woken up to: Texas. With Talarico sitting on $21.5 million to Paxton's $1.75 million, Cornyn refusing to raise money in-state, and John Kennedy telling Fox News flatly that the Senate doesn't have the money budgeted for Texas, the guys argue the GOP's comfort blanket — that this is a Paxton problem, not a party problem — is wrong. Chuck's bet: no Republican on the Texas statewide ticket breaks 55%. From there they turn to the issue that's moved faster than either expected, data centers, framed by Trump's Monday Truth Social post declaring that communities rejecting them "want to end up being backwards and poor" and urging the country to "let Data Reign." Chuck and Chris place it in the rare category of issues voters force onto politicians rather than the reverse — the opioid crisis being the last one — and track the fallout from Wisconsin, where Tom Tiffany is already hitting David Crowley on it, to Shapiro and Hochul reversing course, to the blue-collar trade unions now cutting the other way. The heart of the episode is a long strategic read of the map. The Atlantic reported Trump wants to deploy MAGA Inc's roughly $400 million on ads touting his own second term, telling voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" — and Chuck makes the counterintuitive case that it may be defensible where the fight actually is, even as they debate whether it gooses MAGA turnout or hands independents another reason to break left. They walk the four-seat path through North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska, why Michigan is the state that keeps Democrats up at night, and what Abdul El-Sayed's ongoing Hasan Piker problem is costing him thirty days after the primary. Chris picks Texas as the GOP's nightmare on sheer cost; Chuck picks Iowa, where three House seats, a Senate seat, and a governorship all sit on the table. Plus: the 2028er welcome in both red and blue America (it's not who you'd guess), Trump's demand that the FCC punish Kristen Welker over a single mild remark, a blistering segment on Pete Hegseth and a munitions shortage nobody in Congress seems to be asking about, and the Nats' blown ninth-inning lead as a season in miniature. Timeline: 00:00 Inside ten weeks — and a college football appetizer 01:00 Why college football has become prime political ad real estate 02:00 The ads they spotted: anti-Whatley in NC, anti-Talarico in Texas 03:00 Republicans wake up to a real race a real money problem in Texas 04:00 The cash disparity — $21.5M for Talarico, $1.75M for Paxton 05:00 The Texas governor's race 06:00 A one-party state can't blame a party that doesn't exist 07:00 Is Paxton the problem, or is it the environment? 08:00 Trump's data center post: "let Data Reign" 10:00 Reid Wilson called data centers the sleeper issue six weeks ago 11:00 Washington is only discovering what voters have said for months 12:00 David Wallace-Wells & data centers as a vessel for tech frustration 13:00 Wisconsin: Tiffany already attacking Crowley on data centers 14:00 Big tech is the new big Pharma 15:00 The counter-trend: blue-collar trade unions saying these are jobs 16:00 Why is Trump this pro-data-center in an anti-data-center moment? 19:00 The Atlantic: Trump wants to spend the $400M and run his own campaign 20:00 "Pretend I am on the ballot" 21:00 Wave-year history: Clinton in '00, Bush in '06, Obama in '10 and '14 22:00 Where Trump can't go: Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan 23:00 The four-seat path — North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska 24:00 The fifth state problem: Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana 25:00 The Darline Graham rescue mission and what it proved 26:00 Democratic gains are a given — the question is wave or tsunami 27:00 This election is about the cost of living 28:00 Cook's toss-ups always break in one direction 31:00 What if Republicans win New Hampshire and Democrats win Texas? 34:00 The state that keeps Democrats up at night 35:00 El-Sayed is still doing cleanup thirty days after the primary 37:00 The libertarian-candidate play red-state Democrats aren't running 38:00 The Hasan Piker problem 39:00 The Detroit synagogue comment and the apology he did make 42:00 The Trump-and-white-supremacists parallel 43:00 Alaska as the wild card: ranked choice, two Sullivans, Peltola 45:00 Josh Turek is a very hard candidate to attack 47:00 Rob Sand deserves 30% of the buzz Ossoff is getting 49:00 The Obama-in-'06 comparison and the asses-in-seats metric 50:00 Newsom went to Michigan and couldn't find anyone to campaign with 52:00 Trump demands the FCC punish Kristen Welker 54:00 What the meltdown says about how fragile he is 57:00 The Maggie Haberman attack, 48 hours apart 58:00 Hegseth gets the worst week in Washington 59:00 Sean Parnell, the influencer hires & a very online secretary 1:00:00 The cabinet primary: Lutnick, RFK Jr., Gabbard 1:02:00 Are we really out of munitions after one ...
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    1 時間 12 分
  • Who Succeeds TRUMP? Why The 2028 Republican Field Is WIDE OPEN

    Who Succeeds TRUMP? Why The 2028 Republican Field Is WIDE OPEN
    2026/08/25
    After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans — and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this — and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper. The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has — turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman — a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South — before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams. Timeline: 00:00 Last week was the Democrats — today it's the 2028 Republican field 00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20% 00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr. 01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it 02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris 03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to 04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump 04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline? 06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open 07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition 08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption 08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot? 10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned 10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean? 12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story 13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032 14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0 14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick 15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane 16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling 17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy 19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance? 20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028 21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout? 22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley? 23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan 25:37 MTG, Massie & the America First lane 27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency 28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president 30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot 31:19 The one advantage — Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation 34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable 35:02 Tariffs and Iran — Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both 36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy 36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran 38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states 39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest 40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's? 41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race 42:03 Reading the methodology honestly 43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America 44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy 46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage 47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff 48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t 50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere 52:26 Trump's endorsement record & why he wants to reassert dominance 53:27 What a Graham loss would ...
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    1 時間 11 分
  • 2028 Presidential Preview: AOC Rising, Newsom Overrated, Harris Out

    2028 Presidential Preview: AOC Rising, Newsom Overrated, Harris Out
    2026/08/18
    With under 80 days to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza pause the horse race for a full "where are we now" audit of the 2028 Democratic field — prompted, Chris admits, by listener pushback that they'd been too dismissive of Gavin Newsom. Using the Kalshi and Polymarket odds as a starting point rather than gospel, they work through a top tier of AOC, Newsom, and Jon Ossoff. Chuck's central thesis is that AOC could become a magnetic force on the scale of Trump in 2016 or Obama in 2008 — a candidacy the entire field gets measured against, potentially freezing out half the governors and senators eyeing a run. He maps how she could be the frontrunner while playing underdog in South Carolina, and why the new calendar's crowded first state may actually cushion her. On Newsom, Chuck is blunt: the prediction markets are artificially inflating him, the attention economy is doing the work, and a California governor with a mixed record has no obvious state to win. They also make the case that Kamala Harris ultimately doesn't run — and that not running is the smarter play for 2032. The back half turns to the field's second tier and its long shots: whether Mark Kelly has the hunger and the issue to go with the biography (Chuck's dream ticket: Kelly and Warnock, order randomized), why John Glenn and Bill Bradley are the cautionary tales for résumé candidates, whether Ossoff can realistically jump straight from an $87 million Senate race into a billion-dollar presidential campaign, and a genuine dark-horse case for Rahm Emanuel built on the party's underinvestment in rural Black voters. They preview Tuesday's Florida primary — Byron Donalds's real ceiling, why Chuck thinks the general could land inside five points, the Mel Martinez precedent, and Corey Mills, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Alex Vindman. Then the tone shifts hard: an angry, unsparing exchange about the expired US-Iran memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz, conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, and Pete Hegseth's fitness for the job. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Under 80 days out — and a full 2028 Democratic audit 01:06 Why Chuck thinks JD Vance will divide the right 02:08 The prediction markets as one data point, not the whole story 02:55 Reading Polymarket and Kalshi: AOC, Newsom, Ossoff at the top 05:12 Could AOC suck up all the oxygen the way Trump did in '16? 06:15 The egg-freezing story as proof of her magnetic pull 06:42 Skeptical Newsom can play in Michigan, Iowa, South Carolina 07:30 The impossible position for Newsom 08:16 AOC's advantage — no long record to defend 09:38 Could egg-freezing access become an issue she champions? 10:01 How her presence could paralyze half the field before it starts 10:57 Where does that leave Pritzker? Or Ossoff? 11:59 The formalized DNC calendar 13:37 Nevada, Michigan and the Culinary Union question 14:42 Why a crowded South Carolina helps the progressive lane 15:13 What 2020 looked like when South Carolina came fourth 15:49 Newsom's real problem: where does he actually win? 16:59 Harris's East Coast headquarters lesson 17:22 Advice: put your HQ in Michigan, not San Francisco 19:42 The counterargument: no gatekeepers left, and the hustler wins 20:10 Ossoff, Buttigieg & who's actually willing to burn the boats 21:08 Newsom one-on-one vs. Newsom in a big room 22:08 Would a swing-state Democrat invite Newsom to campaign? 23:04 Harris analysis: you don't buy in Malibu if you're running 24:06 The Dan Quayle risk if she runs under these circumstances 25:01 Newsom and Harris can't both run 26:20 Mark Kelly in Iowa & the quote that reads like a stump speech 27:15 Chuck's lab-built ticket: an astronaut and a pastor 27:50 Will the Democratic base accept Kelly? 29:30 Is Kelly too pro-business for this version of the party? 30:45 How Trump's attacks on Kelly may have helped him 31:33 The real gap: Kelly has no signature issue 32:03 AOC is the change candidate — inside the party and outside it 33:09 Biographies don't win the presidency 33:30 The cautionary tales: John Glenn and Bill Bradley 35:08 The charisma gap — and Kelly's habit of yelling to show energy 35:55 Scanning the long shots on the board 36:55 If not AOC, then Ro Khanna 37:16 Pritzker at 1% — the governor who could reach the left 37:46 Chuck's real dark horse: Rahm Emanuel 39:32 Democrats' rural problem isn't just rural whites 39:59 The left will never accept him 42:07 Not a cycle for an insider — but maybe for an ideas guy 42:27 The Wisconsin lesson: Crowley won against something 42:50 To Florida: Tuesday's primary and Tuesday night's live stream 43:35 Jolly-Donalds could land inside five points 44:01 Why Florida isn't as noncompetitive as people assume 44:44 Could DeSantis win a third term? 45:24 What's Donalds's real number? 46:16 The Mel Martinez precedent 48:29 Why Chuck thinks Jerry Demings had the better shot at Donalds 49:56 The 2018 what-if: Bernie, Soros, Gillum and DeSantis 50:...
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    1 時間 2 分
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