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  • Are Democrats Headed For A Blue Wave… Or A Blue Tsunami?

    Are Democrats Headed For A Blue Wave… Or A Blue Tsunami?
    2026/09/01
    Inside ten weeks to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza start with the race Republicans have suddenly woken up to: Texas. With Talarico sitting on $21.5 million to Paxton's $1.75 million, Cornyn refusing to raise money in-state, and John Kennedy telling Fox News flatly that the Senate doesn't have the money budgeted for Texas, the guys argue the GOP's comfort blanket — that this is a Paxton problem, not a party problem — is wrong. Chuck's bet: no Republican on the Texas statewide ticket breaks 55%. From there they turn to the issue that's moved faster than either expected, data centers, framed by Trump's Monday Truth Social post declaring that communities rejecting them "want to end up being backwards and poor" and urging the country to "let Data Reign." Chuck and Chris place it in the rare category of issues voters force onto politicians rather than the reverse — the opioid crisis being the last one — and track the fallout from Wisconsin, where Tom Tiffany is already hitting David Crowley on it, to Shapiro and Hochul reversing course, to the blue-collar trade unions now cutting the other way. The heart of the episode is a long strategic read of the map. The Atlantic reported Trump wants to deploy MAGA Inc's roughly $400 million on ads touting his own second term, telling voters to "pretend I'm on the ballot" — and Chuck makes the counterintuitive case that it may be defensible where the fight actually is, even as they debate whether it gooses MAGA turnout or hands independents another reason to break left. They walk the four-seat path through North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Alaska, why Michigan is the state that keeps Democrats up at night, and what Abdul El-Sayed's ongoing Hasan Piker problem is costing him thirty days after the primary. Chris picks Texas as the GOP's nightmare on sheer cost; Chuck picks Iowa, where three House seats, a Senate seat, and a governorship all sit on the table. Plus: the 2028er welcome in both red and blue America (it's not who you'd guess), Trump's demand that the FCC punish Kristen Welker over a single mild remark, a blistering segment on Pete Hegseth and a munitions shortage nobody in Congress seems to be asking about, and the Nats' blown ninth-inning lead as a season in miniature. Timeline: 00:00 Inside ten weeks — and a college football appetizer 01:00 Why college football has become prime political ad real estate 02:00 The ads they spotted: anti-Whatley in NC, anti-Talarico in Texas 03:00 Republicans wake up to a real race a real money problem in Texas 04:00 The cash disparity — $21.5M for Talarico, $1.75M for Paxton 05:00 The Texas governor's race 06:00 A one-party state can't blame a party that doesn't exist 07:00 Is Paxton the problem, or is it the environment? 08:00 Trump's data center post: "let Data Reign" 10:00 Reid Wilson called data centers the sleeper issue six weeks ago 11:00 Washington is only discovering what voters have said for months 12:00 David Wallace-Wells & data centers as a vessel for tech frustration 13:00 Wisconsin: Tiffany already attacking Crowley on data centers 14:00 Big tech is the new big Pharma 15:00 The counter-trend: blue-collar trade unions saying these are jobs 16:00 Why is Trump this pro-data-center in an anti-data-center moment? 19:00 The Atlantic: Trump wants to spend the $400M and run his own campaign 20:00 "Pretend I am on the ballot" 21:00 Wave-year history: Clinton in '00, Bush in '06, Obama in '10 and '14 22:00 Where Trump can't go: Ohio, North Carolina, Maine, Michigan 23:00 The four-seat path — North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska 24:00 The fifth state problem: Iowa, Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Montana 25:00 The Darline Graham rescue mission and what it proved 26:00 Democratic gains are a given — the question is wave or tsunami 27:00 This election is about the cost of living 28:00 Cook's toss-ups always break in one direction 31:00 What if Republicans win New Hampshire and Democrats win Texas? 34:00 The state that keeps Democrats up at night 35:00 El-Sayed is still doing cleanup thirty days after the primary 37:00 The libertarian-candidate play red-state Democrats aren't running 38:00 The Hasan Piker problem 39:00 The Detroit synagogue comment and the apology he did make 42:00 The Trump-and-white-supremacists parallel 43:00 Alaska as the wild card: ranked choice, two Sullivans, Peltola 45:00 Josh Turek is a very hard candidate to attack 47:00 Rob Sand deserves 30% of the buzz Ossoff is getting 49:00 The Obama-in-'06 comparison and the asses-in-seats metric 50:00 Newsom went to Michigan and couldn't find anyone to campaign with 52:00 Trump demands the FCC punish Kristen Welker 54:00 What the meltdown says about how fragile he is 57:00 The Maggie Haberman attack, 48 hours apart 58:00 Hegseth gets the worst week in Washington 59:00 Sean Parnell, the influencer hires & a very online secretary 1:00:00 The cabinet primary: Lutnick, RFK Jr., Gabbard 1:02:00 Are we really out of munitions after one ...
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    1 時間 12 分
  • Who Succeeds TRUMP? Why The 2028 Republican Field Is WIDE OPEN

    Who Succeeds TRUMP? Why The 2028 Republican Field Is WIDE OPEN
    2026/08/25
    After last week's Democratic field audit, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza turn to the 2028 Republicans — and find a race the markets treat as a two-man affair between JD Vance and Marco Rubio, and one that Chuck thinks is far softer than that looks. His case: no sitting vice president has been denied his party's nomination in the modern era, but Vance sits below 50% in the markets and may be the weakest heir apparent in either man's lifetime, a candidate who has never won anything without Trump carrying him. They dig into why Rubio has kept his hands remarkably clean on the Iran debacle while Vance has ended up owning it, and why Chuck thinks Rubio takes a break, makes money, and waits for 2032. From there they build out the rest of the field: the near-certainty of a Trump family candidate, Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the likeliest VP pick, Joe Lombardo as the pragmatist the party should be building around, Nikki Haley's underrated path, why Tucker Carlson's contrarianism has no Buchanan-style through line, the class of cabinet officials convinced they can do this — and a genuine, surprising case for Rand Paul as the one candidate who could credibly run against Trump's tariffs and Iran war without being an anti-Trumper. The second half is a brutal accounting of Trump's August. With Canada moving to retaliate after the administration began enforcing 50% tariffs on a slate of Canadian goods and Mark Carney declaring his country "at war," and a temporary waiver on tariffs for 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef drawing pushback from ranchers, Chuck argues Trump has become the single most effective partner Chuck Schumer has — turning Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota into live races and making life impossible for Collins, Rogers, Hinson, and Husted. They walk through the Arkansas poll showing Tom Cotton in a real race, why they think Republicans have already wasted their financial advantage, and Trump's insistence he deserves a perfect grade on the economy. Then they preview Tuesday's high-stakes South Carolina runoff between Darline Graham and Ralph Norman — a race Trump has personally invested in, with a striking stat about appointed senators in the South — before closing on the Nats' collapse and a hard look at how the front office handled CJ Abrams. Timeline: 00:00 Last week was the Democrats — today it's the 2028 Republican field 00:40 The markets read it as a two-man race: Vance 47%, Rubio 20% 00:57 Who else clears 3%: Tucker, Trump Sr., DeSantis, Don Jr. 01:35 History says the sitting VP gets it 02:51 Vance reminds Chuck of Kamala Harris 03:19 A frontrunner with no positive track record to point to 04:05 Vance probably isn't even a senator without Trump 04:51 How much of Vance's weakness is actually Trump's decline? 06:26 If Trump loses the House and Senate, the field blows open 07:28 Why a Trump family candidacy isn't a 0% proposition 08:03 Ivanka as heir apparent? The Don Jr. vs. Eric assumption 08:44 Rubio: does he run, or take the VP slot? 10:07 Hegseth as McNamara, and Vance owning a war he questioned 10:48 How has Rubio kept his hands this clean? 12:42 The one cabinet member with no visible pay-for-play story 13:13 Chuck's prediction: Rubio sits it out, runs in 2032 14:21 Who else? A Hawley or Cotton as Trumpism 2.0 14:48 Sarah Huckabee Sanders as the most likely VP pick 15:24 Youngkin's problem, and the Huntsman-Kasich empathy lane 16:17 Spencer Cox and the never-Trump ceiling 17:59 How the war with Canada gutted the Las Vegas economy 19:30 Can a Jim Banks run against Vance? 20:42 Brian Kemp passed on the Senate to look at 2028 21:24 What do Republican primary voters even want after a wipeout? 22:11 Are we underwriting Nikki Haley? 23:45 What to make of Tucker Carlson's ten-point plan 25:37 MTG, Massie & the America First lane 27:12 Why Never Trumpers overrate his constituency 28:40 The cabinet members who all think they'll be president 30:09 The Portnoy/Cuban outsider slot 31:19 The one advantage — Vance runs the RNC's fundraising operation 34:06 The real problem for Rand Paul: he isn't likable 35:02 Tariffs and Iran — Trump's two great failures, and Paul opposed both 36:27 Under 1% on the board: the dark-horse buy 36:51 To Trump: a trade war with Canada, and more sanctions on Iran 38:20 The beef decision and what it does to midwest states 39:05 Why the Canada fight hits Vegas and Orlando hardest 40:21 Has Trump found a floor lower than Bush's? 41:41 The Arkansas poll putting Tom Cotton in a real race 42:03 Reading the methodology honestly 43:18 Donald Trump has declared war on rural America 44:55 Trump says he deserves 100% on the economy 46:22 Republicans wasted their financial advantage 47:59 Tuesday night preview: the Graham-Norman runoff 48:40 Trump calls in, rallies in Myrtle Beach t 50:16 Appointed senators survive at 44% in the South vs. 81% elsewhere 52:26 Trump's endorsement record & why he wants to reassert dominance 53:27 What a Graham loss would ...
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    1 時間 11 分
  • 2028 Presidential Preview: AOC Rising, Newsom Overrated, Harris Out

    2028 Presidential Preview: AOC Rising, Newsom Overrated, Harris Out
    2026/08/18
    With under 80 days to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza pause the horse race for a full "where are we now" audit of the 2028 Democratic field — prompted, Chris admits, by listener pushback that they'd been too dismissive of Gavin Newsom. Using the Kalshi and Polymarket odds as a starting point rather than gospel, they work through a top tier of AOC, Newsom, and Jon Ossoff. Chuck's central thesis is that AOC could become a magnetic force on the scale of Trump in 2016 or Obama in 2008 — a candidacy the entire field gets measured against, potentially freezing out half the governors and senators eyeing a run. He maps how she could be the frontrunner while playing underdog in South Carolina, and why the new calendar's crowded first state may actually cushion her. On Newsom, Chuck is blunt: the prediction markets are artificially inflating him, the attention economy is doing the work, and a California governor with a mixed record has no obvious state to win. They also make the case that Kamala Harris ultimately doesn't run — and that not running is the smarter play for 2032. The back half turns to the field's second tier and its long shots: whether Mark Kelly has the hunger and the issue to go with the biography (Chuck's dream ticket: Kelly and Warnock, order randomized), why John Glenn and Bill Bradley are the cautionary tales for résumé candidates, whether Ossoff can realistically jump straight from an $87 million Senate race into a billion-dollar presidential campaign, and a genuine dark-horse case for Rahm Emanuel built on the party's underinvestment in rural Black voters. They preview Tuesday's Florida primary — Byron Donalds's real ceiling, why Chuck thinks the general could land inside five points, the Mel Martinez precedent, and Corey Mills, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Alex Vindman. Then the tone shifts hard: an angry, unsparing exchange about the expired US-Iran memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz, conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, and Pete Hegseth's fitness for the job. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Under 80 days out — and a full 2028 Democratic audit 01:06 Why Chuck thinks JD Vance will divide the right 02:08 The prediction markets as one data point, not the whole story 02:55 Reading Polymarket and Kalshi: AOC, Newsom, Ossoff at the top 05:12 Could AOC suck up all the oxygen the way Trump did in '16? 06:15 The egg-freezing story as proof of her magnetic pull 06:42 Skeptical Newsom can play in Michigan, Iowa, South Carolina 07:30 The impossible position for Newsom 08:16 AOC's advantage — no long record to defend 09:38 Could egg-freezing access become an issue she champions? 10:01 How her presence could paralyze half the field before it starts 10:57 Where does that leave Pritzker? Or Ossoff? 11:59 The formalized DNC calendar 13:37 Nevada, Michigan and the Culinary Union question 14:42 Why a crowded South Carolina helps the progressive lane 15:13 What 2020 looked like when South Carolina came fourth 15:49 Newsom's real problem: where does he actually win? 16:59 Harris's East Coast headquarters lesson 17:22 Advice: put your HQ in Michigan, not San Francisco 19:42 The counterargument: no gatekeepers left, and the hustler wins 20:10 Ossoff, Buttigieg & who's actually willing to burn the boats 21:08 Newsom one-on-one vs. Newsom in a big room 22:08 Would a swing-state Democrat invite Newsom to campaign? 23:04 Harris analysis: you don't buy in Malibu if you're running 24:06 The Dan Quayle risk if she runs under these circumstances 25:01 Newsom and Harris can't both run 26:20 Mark Kelly in Iowa & the quote that reads like a stump speech 27:15 Chuck's lab-built ticket: an astronaut and a pastor 27:50 Will the Democratic base accept Kelly? 29:30 Is Kelly too pro-business for this version of the party? 30:45 How Trump's attacks on Kelly may have helped him 31:33 The real gap: Kelly has no signature issue 32:03 AOC is the change candidate — inside the party and outside it 33:09 Biographies don't win the presidency 33:30 The cautionary tales: John Glenn and Bill Bradley 35:08 The charisma gap — and Kelly's habit of yelling to show energy 35:55 Scanning the long shots on the board 36:55 If not AOC, then Ro Khanna 37:16 Pritzker at 1% — the governor who could reach the left 37:46 Chuck's real dark horse: Rahm Emanuel 39:32 Democrats' rural problem isn't just rural whites 39:59 The left will never accept him 42:07 Not a cycle for an insider — but maybe for an ideas guy 42:27 The Wisconsin lesson: Crowley won against something 42:50 To Florida: Tuesday's primary and Tuesday night's live stream 43:35 Jolly-Donalds could land inside five points 44:01 Why Florida isn't as noncompetitive as people assume 44:44 Could DeSantis win a third term? 45:24 What's Donalds's real number? 46:16 The Mel Martinez precedent 48:29 Why Chuck thinks Jerry Demings had the better shot at Donalds 49:56 The 2018 what-if: Bernie, Soros, Gillum and DeSantis 50:...
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  • Democrats Should Be Headed For A Blue Wave Election… But Their Brand STINKS

    Democrats Should Be Headed For A Blue Wave Election… But Their Brand STINKS
    2026/08/11
    With 84 days to the midterms and a six-state primary night ahead, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza open on Chuck's least-hedged read of the cycle: Democrats haven't had a good summer, but Republicans have had a worse one, and every macro trend points to something in the neighborhood of 30 House seats and six or seven Senate seats. The only thing holding him back from calling it a pasting is the Democratic brand problem — and they dig into the polling behind it, including why Hillary Clinton's warning that the socialism-and-communism attack could land is worth taking seriously. That leads to the sharpest segment of the episode: whether Abdul El-Sayed needs to give a version of the Kennedy "I don't work for the Pope" or Obama race speech about being a Muslim American, why the traditional consultant advice to ignore it is wrong, and where he'd give it. They then flip the question to the other side, asking whether Josh Shapiro, Jon Ossoff, Rahm Emanuel, or JB Pritzker will face a parallel demand to publicly separate loyalty to the Constitution from loyalty to Israel. The back half is a clinic in reading political spin. Tim Scott's claim that Republicans will hold 54 Senate seats prompts a broader riff on why partisans now get punished for telling the truth, and why both the political industry and the media have built incentives against saying what's obvious. They break down AOC's remarkable weekend — announcing she's freezing her eggs, then telling Jon Karl she hasn't ruled out 2028 — and what it signals about staking a claim to the progressive lane before El-Sayed can. Chuck makes the case that parenthood is a real asset in presidential politics, and they assess whether Ossoff, now climbing the prediction markets, has the hunger and stamina for it, plus why Shapiro sometimes reads as a try-hard. They close with a genuinely angry exchange about Bill Cassidy's Blanche vote, the threats reshaping how senators vote, and a Nats-and-Reds baseball detour. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 84 days out and a six-state primary night ahead 00:45 Previewing the primaries 01:37 Republicans had a worse summer than Democrats 02:49 Trump makes it harder. Congress did nothing to earn reelection 03:14 Why the macro says 30 House seats and 6-7 Senate seats 04:02 Does the nominee even matter in an environment this bad? 05:14 Hillary Clinton's warning about the socialism-communism attack 06:14 In wave years, the losing party always thinks it's found a lifeline 06:45 Where the communism attack could actually work 08:27 Did "Comrade Kamala" actually help Trump in 2024? 09:42 The attack only lands if a seed has already been planted 10:47 The mailbag question: Islamophobia in the Michigan race 11:11 Using El-Sayed's full name isn't even a dog whistle 12:10 Should El-Sayed give an Islam speech? 12:55 Why the consultant advice — stay on affordability — is wrong here 14:13 The Obama-and-Reverend-Wright precedent 15:45 Mike Rogers, Hassan Piker & a false attribution in circulation 17:24 Jackie Robinson, Kennedy, and breaking barriers 20:15 The flip side: will a Jewish candidate face the same demand? 22:10 The line each of them may have to draw on Netanyahu 23:02 Fever swamp vs. what voters actually care about 23:33 The insulting premise, and the Catholic parallel from the 1950s 25:05 Tim Scott tells Manu Raju Republicans will have 54 seats 26:51 Why partisans now get punished for telling the truth 28:49 Scott on Paxton, and what you're required to say out loud 30:42 Why they do the live streams — no election-night patty cake 31:47 The rare politicians who still say it plainly 32:41 AOC announces she's freezing her eggs 33:26 AOC says she's open to 2028 34:45 The El-Sayed factor: a swing-state progressive with more juice 36:23 Chuck's argument: you're a stronger candidate if you're a parent 37:52 Bush, Obama, Biden & families as political assets 38:51 Even Trump's kids softened him in 2016 41:08 The Howard Stern statistic about listeners who hate you 41:24 Ossoff passes Newsom in the Kalshi and Polymarket 2028 odds 42:10 Why Ossoff clearly has the ambition 44:08 Ossoff and Pritzker could bridge the party's divide 45:17 Pritzker's own money and his own record 46:07 Does Mark Kelly have the hunger? Does Wes Moore? 47:47 Where Shapiro crosses from wanting it to trying too hard 48:28 Des Moines in November, and why nobody likes a try-hard 49:18 Cassidy & Blanche 50:40 The part that doesn't get reported: threats to families 51:21 You signed up to put the public ahead of yourself 53:15 Trump tells Punchbowl the voters are angry at Republicans, not him 53:46 Will he actually spend the super PAC money? 54:04 The truth-serum question: would Trump rather be replaced by a Democrat? 54:20 Nats sweep the Reds 55:32 What is wrong with the Cincinnati Reds? 57:42 The Nats' 34-year-old analytics managerSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  • Michigan Democratic Primary Goes Down To The Wire

    Michigan Democratic Primary Goes Down To The Wire
    2026/08/05
    Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza burn the midnight oil for a rare Wednesday drop, breaking down a Michigan Senate primary that became the most expensive Democratic Senate primary contest in U.S. history and a genuine proxy war over the party's future. With Abdul El-Sayed leading Haley Stevens by a far narrower margin than the polling suggested, the guys unpack why Michigan is so hard to poll, why Black voters are routinely under-sampled in primary surveys, and what it says that the Whitmer-and-labor-backed machine kept this close — a double-digit El-Sayed win, Chuck argues, would have been a genuine indictment of the establishment. They then game out the general: why Republicans will now dump money into Michigan they'd never have spent against Stevens, why an Islamophobic campaign against El-Sayed could backfire spectacularly, and why the stakes for the progressive movement in 2028 are enormous either way. Plus: how the county-by-county map becomes a strategic document for every 2028 campaign now that Michigan sits in the early window. From there they widen the lens to the sleeper races nobody's watching — Kansas, where megachurch pastor Adam Hamilton emerged from a crowded Democratic field and will face Republican incumbent Roger Marshall in November, plus South Dakota, Nebraska, and Iowa, where tariffs, deportations, and the ag economy have made supposedly safe seats interesting. They dig into the ugly Max Miller saga in Ohio ahead of the ballot deadline, why Trump's refusal to push him out is grimly consistent, and the human cost to a family caught in the middle. Then it's a bracing riff on whether Trump actually wants any Republican not named Trump to win in 2028, bearish takes on Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris, a Chuck rant about why abolishing the Senate and packing the Court is magical thinking, and a closing lament about the Nats' fire sale. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 A swing state picks its most liberal Senate nominee ever 00:41 Why Michigan polling is almost always wrong 00:59 The under-polled Black vote and why this race stayed close 01:48 Stevens had the machine — labor, Whitmer, and Wayne County 02:11 Double-digit El-Sayed win is an indictment of the establishment 03:18 The Bernie problem 05:18 Republicans will now spend far more against El-Sayed 05:44 Big money got rejected 06:29 Mike Rogers has never been a great fundraiser 07:16 This is now the only real Republican pickup opportunity 08:16 Maine goes regional — and why Collins is in big trouble 09:20 A loss is a body blow to the progressive movement 13:57 Why they held the episode until Wednesday 14:22 To Kansas: Adam Hamilton, wins the Democratic primary 15:15 Cook moves the race to Likely Republican 16:36 School funding, Johnson County & the issue also lifting Rob Sand 17:49 From anti-Brownback coalition to an actual Democratic Party 18:35 Why South Dakota, Iowa, Nebraska, and Kansas are all suddenly live 19:16 Is MAGA angry enough at Thune to punish Rounds? 20:13 Tariffs and deportations have hammered the ag economy 20:38 Nebraska's hard ceiling vs. Kansas's higher ceiling 22:26 Which is closer in November — Kansas or Nebraska? 23:29 Why the Islamophobia play could backfire 24:29 Republicans' $300M advantage and where they'll actually spend it 27:27 Governing wing vs. movement wing 28:02 Why AOC engaged in Michigan but never for Graham Platner 29:03 The nationalization test: Talarico-Paxton or El-Sayed-Rogers? 32:41 The Max Miller deadline 33:38 Why the orchestrated exit didn't happen 34:00 Bernie Moreno, his daughter, and the family at the center of it 36:31 Why this is arguably bigger than the Platner story 38:52 Trump doesn't close the deal 39:53 Trump never accepts assault allegations as disqualifying 40:15 Trump puts himself before the party, always 41:06 Will he actually spend the MAGA Inc. money? 41:52 Trump doesn't want Vance or Rubio to win in 2028 43:41 Don Jr.'s changing online behavior — and what it might signal 45:05 Guilfoyle, Newsom & the weirdest political fact in America 45:31 Bearish on Gavin Newsom 47:38 Harris on abolishing the Electoral College and packing the Court 48:09 Changing the rules because you can't win under them 49:20 Why the Senate exists as a check on extremism 51:33 Both parties crashed this car 51:56 Why Schumer's anti-corruption bills are useless political theater 53:52 Congress was supposed to be the anti-corruption bureau 54:08 The Nats fire sale 55:26 Great franchises try to win now AND later 55:48 Manfred, the Dodgers & the coming salary-cap fightSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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    57 分
  • The Democrats’ 2028 Primary Map Is a Nightmare for Progressives

    The Democrats’ 2028 Primary Map Is a Nightmare for Progressives
    2026/07/28

    Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza dig into the biggest structural story of the 2028 race: the DNC's proposed new Democratic nominating calendar, which would open in South Carolina and run through Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. The guys make the case that a calendar starting in the least progressive early state and ending in another one looks engineered to stop a Bernie- or AOC-style insurgent — then debate who it actually helps. Chris sees a raised bar and a no-backup-plan trap for Kamala Harris; Chuck argues the map is a dream scenario for Wes Moore, with three heavily African-American states and two big military populations, while making the counterintuitive case that a splintered field could still let a progressive win South Carolina on a McCain-in-2008-style plurality. Along the way they weigh Buttigieg's veterans play, Mark Kelly's underrated prospects, Pritzker's self-funding edge, and why they'd have picked Arizona over Nevada.

    From there they turn to an idea from Chuck's wife for reinventing the White House Correspondents' Dinner — hand the South Lawn to reporters and their families once a year, and keep the president and the TV cameras out of it — before tackling the deepening mystery around Mitch McConnell's health and monthslong public silence, and why the conspiracy theories collapse the moment you ask what the upside would be. Then it's on to the stakes of next week's Michigan Senate primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, which both sides are treating as the first existential fight over the Democratic Party's identity, and how Zohran Mamdani may have reshaped it. They close, as always, with the Nats: the looming trade deadline, why Foster Griffin is expendable but CJ Abrams isn't, and the case for building a brand around the team's young Black stars.

    Timeline:

    (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

    00:00 The DNC's proposed 2028 Democratic nominating calendar

    01:00 The six-state lineup

    01:42 Why South Carolina and Virginia matter most

    02:56 Going first means six months of attention, not a week

    03:52 Is South Carolina good for Kamala Harris?

    04:54 Win the Black vote, win South Carolina

    06:32 The Black vote isn't a monolith

    07:51 The calendar is a dream scenario built for Wes Moore

    08:34 Is Jon Ossoff the real winner? The neighbor-state theory

    10:45 A map that looks designed to stop a Bernie or AOC insurgency

    12:24 The progressive math — how 15% could be enough

    13:04 A four-state path for the left: fourth, first, second, first

    14:41 South Carolina as a race-ender i

    15:23 The McCain lesson: 42% as a loss in 2000, 33% as a win in 2008

    17:43 Southern Super Tuesday was built to stop liberals

    20:08 Use the primary calendar to build the party

    21:52 South Carolina's growth & the rural Black voters Democrats ignore

    23:00 Why start where you can't win in November?

    25:26 Why it's actually a good map for Pete Buttigieg

    27:53 Why the expensive states favor self-funder JB Pritzker

    30:21 Michigan gets its own week — just as the Israel issue splits the party

    31:24 Why Nevada was picked for the interest groups

    32:10 White House Correspondents' Dinner and why it felt so off

    35:13 The pitch: hand over the South Lawn to the press corps

    36:18 Keep the cameras and the president out

    38:16 Trump will always make it about himself

    40:13 The Mitch McConnell timeline

    41:20 A proof-of-life photo — but not a proof-of-speech one

    43:03 McConnell has always been intensely private

    45:23 The most important Democratic primary in the country

    45:49 Why Abdul El-Sayed is all but running for president

    46:56 Mamdani's "arrest Netanyahu" speech reshaped the movement

    48:24 Gary Peters, Whitmer & the raised stakes

    50:00 The morning-after narratives already written for either outcome

    53:36 El-Sayed's real problem: little traction in the Black community

    54:00 To the Nats: the trade deadline is the biggest day

    54:52 Trade Foster Griffin — but don't you dare trade CJ Abrams

    57:03 The case for building a DC brand around Abrams & James Wood

    See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
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  • Why The 2026 Fundamentals Spell Disaster For Trump's GOP

    Why The 2026 Fundamentals Spell Disaster For Trump's GOP
    2026/07/21

    With just 105 days until the 2026 midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza use their last Super Tuesday before the sub-100-day mark to take stock of what they think they know. The headline: with Trump's approval stuck below 40, gas back over $4, an Iran conflict reigniting, and an ICE controversy dominating the news, nearly every fundamental points toward Republicans losing both chambers — and the guys argue the only thing standing between Democrats and a monster year is the Democrats themselves. They dig deep into the polling weeds, unpacking why the generic ballot has quietly become more of a party-ID number, why you can't compare it across cycles anymore, why independents are breaking hard left, and what to make of the model giving Democrats a 62% shot at the House while Republicans hold a 59% edge in the Senate.

    From there it's onto the races reshaping the map: South Carolina, where Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special and Lindsey Graham's appointed sister surprises everyone by running for a full term — a rare bit of GOP pragmatism that hands John Thune a much-needed win — and Maine, where Troy Jackson is set to be coronated at the Democratic convention and the ICE story has erased Susan Collins's post-Platner breathing room. Chuck and Chris also weigh the stalled Todd Blanche confirmation, the $400 million Qatari plane suddenly deemed too unsafe to fly, and why character and temperament remain the whole ballgame. Then they close on LeBron's looming decision — Heat, Cavs, or Sixers — and Chuck plugs the summer slate across the "Chuck Todd expanded universe."

    Timeline:

    00:00 105 days out from the midterms

    02:07 Why August, not July, is when politics really kicks off

    03:01 Why campaigns no longer wait for Labor Day to run their hits

    04:34 Trump's approval is stuck below 40 a recipe for losing both chambers

    05:44 ICE story erases whatever Collins got from the Platner disaster

    06:49 Democrats are more motivated

    07:23 Arizona Republicans line up to nominate a candidate who can't win

    08:08 Trump's primetime speech relitigating 2020

    09:26 GOP candidates on the trail are running as far from Trump as possible

    10:50 Trump is too lazy to be a dictator

    11:54 On 2020, Trump is on an island — even his own party won't follow

    14:14 The history: 20 of the last 22 midterms punish the president's party

    15:05 The generic ballot vs. 2018 and 2010, for reference

    15:51 Why the generic ballot is now really a party-ID number

    17:31 Trust the trend lines, not the raw numbers

    19:59 The StateNavigate Georgia poll that floored them

    20:49 Why Democrats peak in summer polling

    22:19 A smarter "informed ballot" experiment using Google search results

    24:36 Democrats 62% to win the House, Republicans 59% to hold the Senate

    25:20 Why the Senate number is lower than it should be

    26:54 Iowa as the 50-yard line for a wave

    27:42 The daunting Senate map for Dems

    30:04 Why the 62% House number surprised Chris

    31:52 The one thing that changed all summer — a possible new forever war

    32:56 The math favors the GOP: Democrats are playing a road game

    34:18 No swing districts left, and a country sorted to the bone

    36:03 South Carolina: Trump ally Russell Frye jumps into the special

    36:56 Graham's appointed sister surprises by running for a full term

    37:30 A rare case of Trump and the GOP doing the pragmatic thing

    41:13 Troy Jackson set for a coronation

    42:53 The stalled Todd Blanche confirmation & the $1.8B slush fund

    43:15 Why the ICE story is a real problem for Collins

    44:02 Ambition as a drug — Homan, Bovino, Noem & the $50k question

    45:09 The Odyssey movie and how online discourse isn't real life

    47:07 The $400M Qatari plane is suddenly too unsafe to fly

    48:07 Character and temperament as the whole ballgame

    50:20 Quotes that aged badly

    52:05 Trump as Grover Cleveland

    53:34 LeBron's decision: Heat, Cavs, or Sixers

    56:20 Miami and Denver as the best physical fits for a 40-year-old LeBron

    57:34 The Hall of Fame "five rings table" and the chase for a fifth title

    1:00:17 What the prediction markets say

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  • Why Losing Lindsey Graham Is Trouble For Trump & The Senate's Vanishing Center

    Why Losing Lindsey Graham Is Trouble For Trump & The Senate's Vanishing Center
    2026/07/14

    Chris Cillizza and Chuck Todd open on a jolting weekend in politics: the sudden death of Lindsey Graham and the frantic — and faintly unseemly — scramble to replace him. Rather than relitigate Graham through the usual partisan lens, the guys argue that his loss, alongside the coming departures of Cornyn, Tillis, Cassidy, Durbin and others, amounts to a gutting of the Senate's dealmaking center, and they lay out their favorite framework for understanding him: the difference between "ideologues" and "politicians," and why the politicians are the ones who actually get things passed. They break down the near-term fallout for Trump, who just lost his most effective back-channel to skeptical senators and to Ukraine, and handicap the wide-open South Carolina race — from Henry McMaster's likely caretaker appointment to a crowded August primary featuring Pamela Evette, Nancy Mace, and a possible Trey Gowdy compromise play.

    From there it's on to two health stories the news cycle nearly buried — the mystery around Mitch McConnell's fall, pneumonia and rehab stay, and Trump's latest Walter Reed cognitive test — before a deep dive into Maine, where Susan Collins suddenly has no opponent after Graham Platner's exit and seven Democrats will fight it out at a 600-person nominating convention. Chuck and Chris debate whether Collins is now more or less vulnerable, take a spirited detour through New England blue bloods and Platner's "oyster farmer" branding, and skewer the knives-out world of political consultants. Then they close personal and sporty: their National Journal origin story, and a nerdy back-and-forth on the reinvented Home Run Derby, All-Star nostalgia, a World Baseball Classic pitch, and the Nats' latest heartbreak.

    Timeline:

    (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

    00:00 Welcome to Super Tuesdays

    01:29 Lindsey Graham dies Saturday night of an aortic rupture

    02:01 When death hits mid-campaign, everything accelerates

    03:59 The "humans vs. aliens" acting analogy, applied to politicians

    04:43 Ideologues vs. politicians — and why Graham was the latter

    05:42 Democratic senators genuinely liked working with Graham

    06:21 The real story: the gutting of the Senate's dealmaking center

    11:33 Graham would've been a Democrat if he'd grown up in Oregon

    14:26 Near-term fallout — Graham was Thune & Trump's whisperer

    14:59 Why Todd Blanche's confirmation just got harder

    16:14 Zelensky lost his best Trump whisperer, too

    17:30 Republicans have functionally lost control of the Senate

    19:37 An open South Carolina Senate seat comes once a generation

    22:09 South Carolina's factional GOP sets up a free-for-all

    24:43 A full six-year term raises the stakes

    29:06 Could Trey Gowdy be the compromise candidate?

    31:02 What is going on with Mitch McConnell?

    35:45 The buried health story: Trump's new Walter Reed cognitive test

    36:36 Should cognitive tests be mandatory for presidents over 75?

    38:26 On Graham, Trump can only make it about himself

    39:32 The Butler anniversary crowd-size claim

    40:32 To Maine: Collins is the most vulnerable Republican

    41:02 Handicapping the seven-Democrat nominating convention

    45:07 Is Susan Collins more or less vulnerable than a month ago?

    47:13 Why the right Democratic nominee could actually beat her

    51:15 Platner's privilege & the "oyster farmer" brand

    51:39 The knives-out world of nepo-baby campaign consultants

    51:56 Chuck & Chris's National Journal origin story

    54:35 Why "he's a farmer, not a politician" branding is hypnotic nonsense

    56:20 To sports: the reinvented, 20-swing Home Run Derby

    56:41 The Nats blow three leads

    58:04 Empty-nesting & the streaming shows worth your night

    59:42 All-Star nostalgia in the age of the MLB app and interleague play

    1:02:42 A pitch for a two-week WBC break every July

    1:04:25 The Futures Game & Nats prospect Eli Willits

    1:05:06 Wrap-up: subscribe to Super Tuesdays

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