『Sugar Surplus: Brazil's Bumper Crop Sends Prices Tumbling』のカバーアート

Sugar Surplus: Brazil's Bumper Crop Sends Prices Tumbling

Sugar Surplus: Brazil's Bumper Crop Sends Prices Tumbling

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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome back to the Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I am Vanessa Clark, and today is Wednesday, October twenty-second, twenty twenty-five. If you are tuning in to stay on top of sugar price news, global production updates, and market dynamics, I am here to bring you the latest, all in a friendly conversation.

Let’s kick things off with the key number you may be searching for right now: the current trading price for the commodity sugar. As of today, the price for raw sugar is sitting at fifteen point one five cents per pound. That is the lowest level we have seen since March twenty twenty-one, and prices are down by more than thirty percent compared to the same period last year. Over the past month alone, sugar has slid another three percent. If you are following sugar futures or spot prices, that downward move is certainly noteworthy.

What is driving this selloff and the ongoing slump in sugar prices? The answer comes down to supply. Brazil—still the world’s biggest sugar producer—has just reported a spike in sugar production. Mills in Brazil’s key center-south region increased output by more than ten percent year-on-year in the second half of September. Analysts see more sugarcane being crushed for sugar instead of ethanol, adding to global stocks and putting pressure on prices. According to industry group Datagro, Brazil’s next sugar harvest in twenty twenty-six is expected to hit a record forty-four million metric tons—a jump of nearly four percent in just a year.

India and Thailand are also stacking up big harvests. After a tough year for Indian growers in twenty twenty-four, this season’s monsoon rains have dramatically boosted prospects. India’s production is forecasted to climb to about thirty-five million metric tons. Thailand’s sugar output is also rising again, up five percent for the twenty twenty-five season. These increases mean robust supplies from the world’s top producers.

Globally, analysts are talking about a significant sugar surplus for twenty twenty-five and twenty twenty-six. The BMI Group recently projected a global surplus of more than ten million tons for this harvest, with similar forecasts from Covrig Analytics and other market consultants. With more supply than demand on the horizon, prices are likely to stay under pressure for some time.

Why is demand not keeping pace? Rising food price inflation, shifting consumer preferences away from added sugars, and even the growing use of drugs like Ozempic and Zepbound to curb appetite in wealthier countries all play a role. Consumption growth is sluggish, and some projections even factor in a decline—especially if these new appetite-suppressing medications become more widely available.

What does this mean for those in the sugar trade or anyone whose business relies on sugar? If you are a buyer, the current environment is leading to lower input costs—an opportunity worth noting. For producers, however, the surplus and falling prices may mean tighter margins or renewed pressure to innovate, diversify, or focus on efficiency.

Looking ahead, forecasts suggest that the sugar market may continue trading around these low levels over the next quarter and possibly move even lower in the coming year. Macro models point to sugar prices remaining under fifteen cents per pound in twelve months.

So, whether you are watching sugar prices to manage costs at your bakery, tracking the futures for trading opportunities, or just following the story of a staple commodity, now is the time to keep a close eye. With production booming and plenty of supply, the market is sending a clear signal—and every dip and rally matters if you care about sugar.

Thanks for joining me on the Daily Sugar Price Tracker. Be sure to subscribe and tune in tomorrow for fresh updates, deeper insights, and everything you need to stay ahead in the ever-changing world of sugar. Have a sweet day, and I will catch you next time.

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