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Sugar Surplus: Brazil's Bumper Crop Keeps Prices Low

Sugar Surplus: Brazil's Bumper Crop Keeps Prices Low

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This is your Daily Sugar Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.

Welcome back to the Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I’m Vanessa Clark, and I’m here with your latest update on sugar prices, market trends, and what’s driving the ups and downs in the world of this essential commodity.

Let’s start with today’s numbers. As of October twenty-third, twenty twenty-five, sugar is trading at fifteen point two five cents per pound. That’s a small climb of about zero point seven eight percent from yesterday, but to put things in perspective, sugar is still down more than thirty percent compared to this time last year. Over the past month alone, we’ve seen a drop of about two and a half percent according to Trading Economics. So, if you’re watching the sugar market closely, you’ll know it’s been on quite a ride.

Now, why are sugar prices staying so low? The big driver remains global supply. Brazil, the world’s largest sugar producer, is wrapping up another massive harvest. In the key center-south region, sugar production rose nearly eleven percent year-on-year in the second half of September, reaching just over three million metric tons. Industry groups and consultancies like Datagro expect Brazil’s sugar production to continue rising, not just this year but into the next season, possibly reaching over forty-one million metric tons for the twenty twenty-five to twenty twenty-six harvest.

It’s not just Brazil fueling this sugar surplus. India and Thailand are both expecting larger sugar crops, thanks to favorable weather and expanded acreage. The Indian government reported the strongest monsoon in five years, likely leading to a bumper harvest for the twenty twenty-five to twenty twenty-six season. That means more sugar on global markets, which usually puts downward pressure on prices.

Despite today’s small uptick, these factors are keeping sugar prices near a four and a half year low on New York’s Sugar Number Eleven futures contract. There’s also news from the International Sugar Organization forecasting that global sugar output will rise again next season, with a projected surplus of more than ten million tons worldwide.

What does all this mean if you’re in the sugar business, or just keeping an eye on your grocery bills? If you’re a producer, especially outside Brazil, it’s a challenging time, with high production costs and weak prices. Many traders are watching for any disruptions—such as weather problems or geopolitical events—that could cut supply and push prices up. But right now, the expectation is for ample sugar supplies for the months ahead.

For businesses and consumers, stable or lower sugar prices could be good news in the short term, especially after the volatile swings we’ve seen in food markets recently. But remember, commodity prices can shift suddenly, so keeping an eye on weather patterns in Brazil, India, and Thailand—and global trade policies—will continue to be important.

That’s all for today’s Daily Sugar Price Tracker. I’m Vanessa Clark, and I’ll be back tomorrow with your next update on what’s happening in the world of sugar. If you found this helpful, don’t forget to subscribe, share the show, and tune in next time. Thanks for listening, and have a sweet day.

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