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Soybean Surge: China Eases Tension, Record Crush Boosts Demand

Soybean Surge: China Eases Tension, Record Crush Boosts Demand

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 https://www.instagram.com/vanessaclarkipaiThis is your Daily Soybeans Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark podcast.Hi, everyone, and welcome back to Daily Soybeans Price Tracker with Vanessa Clark. I’m your host, Vanessa, and I’m here to keep you up to date with the latest on the soybean markets—everything from prices and trends to global news you can actually use. So grab a cup of coffee, settle in, and let’s get into today’s update.Soybean futures kicked off the Thursday session with some strength, and by the close, November soybeans were hanging onto gains, closing up a bit over six cents at ten dollars and twelve and three-quarter cents per bushel, according to Ever.Ag’s latest spot market summary. That’s a solid showing, especially considering the market pulled back from earlier highs during the day. The most actively traded December soybean meal contract also gained, closing at two hundred seventy-six dollars and eighty cents per ton, up ninety cents, while soybean oil edged slightly higher as well.So what’s behind this supportive tone? For one, there’s a bit of easing in trade tensions between the U.S. and China. ADM Investor Services noted that a spokeswoman from China’s commerce ministry clarified today that their recent rare earth restrictions aren’t a total ban—exports will continue as long as the minerals are for civil purposes. That’s important, because when trade channels between the world’s two largest economies show signs of opening up, farmers and traders take notice. Still, let’s be real: China hasn’t bought U.S. soybeans for December or January shipments yet. Right now, they’re holding off due to high premiums for Brazilian beans, and trade insiders say China might dip into its own reserves to cover near-term needs if those premiums don’t come down. Reuters and other market sources estimate China needs another eight to nine million metric tons for December and January, which puts a spotlight on upcoming negotiations—and the possible meeting later this month between Presidents Trump and Xi.On the domestic front, the U.S. soybean crush is roaring. The National Oilseed Processors Association just reported a record September crush of nearly one hundred ninety-eight million bushels, up more than four percent from August and a whopping twelve percent from last year. That’s the fourth highest monthly crush ever, driven in part by strong demand for soybean oil in biofuels. In fact, according to the American Soybean Association, for the first time ever, U.S. biofuels are using more soybean oil than is exported or used in food. That’s a game changer, and it’s helping offset some of the drop in export demand, especially with China sitting on the sidelines for now. Plus, as new crush plants come online in the next few years, domestic demand could become even more important.Now, let’s talk weather and the crop itself. Weekend rains in the central and eastern Corn Belt will slow down the tail end of the harvest, but they’ll also help relieve some of the drought stress that’s been hanging over the region. Yields are all over the map this year, with disease pressure in some areas reducing output. The USDA currently estimates the national soybean yield at 186.7 bushels per acre, but history suggests that number could come down in the final tally. Between 1990 and now, when the USDA raised yield estimates in August only to lower them in September—which happened this year—the final yield ended up below the September forecast five out of eight times. So, there’s still some uncertainty around just how big this crop will actually be, especially with the USDA’s usual reports on hold due to the ongoing government shutdown.Globally, Brazil is expecting a record soybean crop of nearly 178 million metric tons, according to their Ministry of Agriculture, and China’s appetite remains strong, even if they’re not buying U.S. beans right now. That’s something to watch, because if Brazil’s harvest is as big as forecast, it could ease global supply concerns—but if China suddenly comes back to the U.S. market, we could see prices jump quickly.So what does this all mean for you? If you’re storing soybeans, the current price is holding above that key ten-dollar mark, and domestic demand from the crush sector is providing a solid floor. But keep an eye on export news—especially any signs that China might return to the U.S. market. If you’re making marketing decisions, now might be a good time to review your storage plans and consider locking in some coverage, especially with all the uncertainty around yields and government reports.Thanks for listening to Daily Soybeans Price Tracker. Whether you’re a farmer, trader, or just interested in ag markets, I hope you found this update helpful. Don’t forget to subscribe for daily insights, and tune in tomorrow for the latest on soybean prices, weather, and global trends. Talk to you soon!For more http://...
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