エピソード

  • Mike Ashton on How the Market Expresses Inflation Expectations

    Mike Ashton on How the Market Expresses Inflation Expectations
    2026/06/12
    Investors often use inflation swaps and breakevens — the difference in yields between nominal Treasuries and TIPS — to deduce market participants’ inflation expectations. These measures also change from new TIPS issuance, shifting inflation risk, and a liquidity premium, however, making them imprecise gauges of estimates for future inflation. In this episode, we talk with Mike Ashton, Managing Principal at Enduring Investments, about how TIPS and swaps compensate investors for inflation, how closely they reflect inflation expectations, and what they tell us about expectations for the War in Iran. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    35 分
  • Alexis Maxwell on How Rising Fertilizer Costs Drive Food Inflation

    Alexis Maxwell on How Rising Fertilizer Costs Drive Food Inflation
    2026/05/29
    The Strait of Hormuz’s closure has driven up prices for fertilizer and diesel, two inputs essential for agricultural production. Considering how farmers pre-buy fertilizer and crops take months to grow, the higher costs may not be fully passed on to consumers until the spring of 2027. Agricultural production will be a bellwether as the Fed waits to see the second-order effects of higher oil prices on broader consumer inflation. In this episode, we talk with Alexis Maxwell, Senior Analyst for Fertilizer with Bloomberg Intelligence, about how the war in Iran is increasing costs for agricultural production, farmers’ alternatives to conventional fertilizer, and the energy shock’s delayed impact on consumer food prices. Simply Put: Expert perspectives on the trends influencing fixed income, banking, and the macro landscape, hosted by FHN Financial’s Macro Strategist, Will Compernolle. Tune in to better understand what’s moving the markets and what to keep an eye on in the weeks and months ahead. Listen and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    29 分
  • Emanuel Mönch on the Post-Pandemic Term Premium

    Emanuel Mönch on the Post-Pandemic Term Premium
    2026/05/15
    The term premium — investors’ compensation for holding longer-term Treasuries instead of T-bills — fluctuates with inflation uncertainty, federal deficit worries, and central banks’ balance sheets. The New York Fed’s Adrian, Crump, and Mönch model estimates the 10-year Treasury term premium is higher than before the pandemic but substantially lower than it was pre- GFC. The post-pandemic term premium will shape the path of longer-term Treasuries as bond investors consider what the new normal looks like. In this episode, we talk with Emanuel Mönch, Professor of Financial and Monetary Economics at the Frankfurt School of Finance and Management, about the models estimating the term premium, what’s driven changes over the last forty years, and how it could shift under a Warsh-led Fed.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    27 分
  • Stan Veuger on the Economic Risks of Population Decline

    Stan Veuger on the Economic Risks of Population Decline
    2026/05/01
    Changes in foreign migration caused US population growth to slow last year and potentially turn negative in 2026. Federal programs and private debt markets structured around an assumption of growth must now contend with the possibility of a shrinking labor force. Meanwhile, Fed officials have become remarkably sanguine amid near-zero job growth, convinced the labor market remains curiously in balance because of changes in the labor supply. In this episode, we talk with Stan Veuger, Senior Fellow in Economic Policy Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, about the abrupt slowdown in US population growth, what it means for breakeven job growth, and how current trends will impact future interest rates.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    27 分
  • Jeff Lacker on Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet

    Jeff Lacker on Shrinking the Fed’s Balance Sheet
    2026/04/17
    The Fed’s balance sheet has swelled from $900 billion in 2008 to just under $7 trillion in April 2026. Policymakers bought up securities to support the economy during the global financial crisis and pandemic, but critics allege the enormous balance sheet boosts inflation and distorts financial markets. If Kevin Warsh tries to reduce the Fed’s holdings as Chair, he must contend with the existing regulatory environment and the Fed’s ample reserves regime. In this episode, we talk with Jeff Lacker, the former President of the Richmond Fed from 2004-2017, about the theory behind central bank asset purchases, the costs and benefits of QE, and how a Kevin Warsh-led Fed could shrink the balance sheet.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    51 分
  • SPECIAL PODCAST: Rachel Ziemba on the Strait of Hormuz

    SPECIAL PODCAST: Rachel Ziemba on the Strait of Hormuz
    2026/04/09
    The recently announced two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran is giving investors hope that traffic will normalize soon in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that before the war serviced a fifth of global oil supply. As countries search for workarounds to plug the shortfall, a spike in global commodity prices has reinvigorated inflation worries, prompted expectations for central bank tightening, and weighed on global growth sentiment. The path of US inflation this year will depend on the pass-through to consumers and whether the Strait sustainably reopens. In this special edition of Simply Put, we talk with geopolitical analyst Rachel Ziemba about the Strait of Hormuz’s role in global commodity markets, how higher raw material costs affect consumer prices, and what it will take to normalize traffic in the Strait.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    41 分
  • Fabio Natalucci on the Rise and Risks of Private Credit

    Fabio Natalucci on the Rise and Risks of Private Credit
    2026/04/03
    Private credit has outgrown its original niche of lending to middle-market firms using funds from institutional investors with long time horizons. Rising participation from retail investors and banks has increased the sector’s interconnectedness with the wider financial system, making investors worried that a wave of redemption requests could lead to a cascade of tighter financial conditions and slower economic growth. In this episode, we talk with Fabio Natalucci, Managing Director at the Andersen Institute for Finance and Economics, about the conditions that caused the rise of private credit, what’s behind its recent distress, and the sector’s biggest vulnerabilities.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    45 分
  • Chad Syverson on the Causes and Effects of a Productivity Boom

    Chad Syverson on the Causes and Effects of a Productivity Boom
    2026/03/20
    AI optimism is fueling expectations for a sustained post-pandemic productivity surge that supports robust economic growth and permits easier Fed policy. However, history suggests full technological implementation can take decades and some industries could still struggle to become more productive. As policymakers consider the impacts of profound technological change, they’ll have to confront difficulties measuring productivity in real-time. In this episode, we talk with Chad Syverson, Professor of Economics at the University of Chicago, about the sectors seemingly immune to productivity growth, how quickly innovations can increase productivity, and AI’s potential impacts on inflation and interest rates.
    続きを読む 一部表示
    38 分