US midterms: Why the hardest test for America’s allies may lie ahead Could an electoral setback leave Donald Trump weakened at home but more assertive abroad? In this week’s What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli joins Sibylline’s Principal Analyst Americas Claire Brady and Lead Analyst Lewis Galvin to explore the midterm outlook, MAGA’s uncertain future and the Republican succession struggle. And they examine why Trump’s pursuit of his legacy could bring fresh challenges for Ukraine, Iran and America’s European allies long after the votes are counted.

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Could Russia’s shadow war cause mass casualties in Europe within six months? Following an attack on a Polish Starlink ground station, What Just Happened? host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Karan Vassil and former military intelligence officer Philip Ingram MBE to examine Moscow’s increasingly reckless hybrid campaign.

As Russia tests the West’s red lines, are Western governments doing enough to deter further attacks? Our guests discuss the risk of unintended civilian deaths, the response they could provoke and what might make Moscow change course.

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The risk of a successful high-impact attack on European soil is increasing. As Russian hybrid operations escalate, how close is Europe to more open confrontation?

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Sibylline’s Head of Global Analysis, Edward Johnson, is joined by Associate Analyst for Europe, Annabel Walker, and Europe Analyst, Caspar von der Schulenburg, to examine what the recent arrests near RAF Fairford reveal about the evolving threat facing the UK and Europe.

They explore why the UK, Germany and Poland sit at different points on the spectrum of Russian grey-zone activity, what is driving Moscow’s increasing tolerance for risk and potential lethality, and why the distinction between hybrid warfare and more open confrontation is becoming increasingly difficult to define.

They also examine the challenge of attributing grey-zone attacks, the sectors most exposed to escalating activity, and why Sibylline now assesses a realistic possibility of more open confrontation between Russia and NATO by mid-2027.

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