US midterms: Why the hardest test for America’s allies may lie ahead Could an electoral setback leave Donald Trump weakened at home but more assertive abroad? In this week’s What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli joins Sibylline’s Principal Analyst Americas Claire Brady and Lead Analyst Lewis Galvin to explore the midterm outlook, MAGA’s uncertain future and the Republican succession struggle. And they examine why Trump’s pursuit of his legacy could bring fresh challenges for Ukraine, Iran and America’s European allies long after the votes are counted.

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Could Russia’s shadow war cause mass casualties in Europe within six months? Following an attack on a Polish Starlink ground station, What Just Happened? host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Karan Vassil and former military intelligence officer Philip Ingram MBE to examine Moscow’s increasingly reckless hybrid campaign.

As Russia tests the West’s red lines, are Western governments doing enough to deter further attacks? Our guests discuss the risk of unintended civilian deaths, the response they could provoke and what might make Moscow change course.

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The risk of a successful high-impact attack on European soil is increasing. As Russian hybrid operations escalate, how close is Europe to more open confrontation?

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Sibylline’s Head of Global Analysis, Edward Johnson, is joined by Associate Analyst for Europe, Annabel Walker, and Europe Analyst, Caspar von der Schulenburg, to examine what the recent arrests near RAF Fairford reveal about the evolving threat facing the UK and Europe.

They explore why the UK, Germany and Poland sit at different points on the spectrum of Russian grey-zone activity, what is driving Moscow’s increasing tolerance for risk and potential lethality, and why the distinction between hybrid warfare and more open confrontation is becoming increasingly difficult to define.

They also examine the challenge of attributing grey-zone attacks, the sectors most exposed to escalating activity, and why Sibylline now assesses a realistic possibility of more open confrontation between Russia and NATO by mid-2027.

If you are interested in receiving Sibylline's Resilience report, reach out to us at info@sibylline.com.

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The US still leads the global AI race, but China is closing the gap. Could the competition itself make AI more dangerous?

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Chief Analyst, Sam Olsen, and Lead Analyst for Technology and Geopolitics, Jake James, to explore the potential existential risks of AI, why US-China strategic competition could make meaningful safeguards harder to achieve, and whether the UK could play a role in bridging the divide.

They also examine why AI may be harder to contain than nuclear weapons, the different risks posed by frontier and open-weight models, and what it could take for Washington and Beijing to cooperate on AI safety.

Request the report: https://go.sibylline.com/AI-castastrophe

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The Iran-US conflict has evolved significantly over the past seven months, creating strategic, economic and societal consequences both inside Iran and across the wider region.

In this episode, Samuel McVicar speaks with Sibylline Principal Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the current state of the conflict, how it has evolved and what could come next. Megan explores Iran's internal dynamics, the wider regional implications of the war and the potential scenarios that could shape its next phase.

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An attempted mutiny in Niger has exposed growing tensions inside the country’s military regime, raising fresh questions about General Tiani’s grip on power and the loyalties of the armed forces.

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline Senior Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst Benedict Manzin and Dr Alia Brahimi, Senior Fellow with the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council and host of the Guns for Hire podcast, to examine the events surrounding the mutiny and what they reveal about Niger’s political and security landscape.

Interested in hearing more from Dr Alia? Check out her podcast and Substack:

Guns for Hire Podcast: Guns for Hire podcast

Alia's Substack: https://highlyirregular.substack.com/

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#Niger #Russia #AfricaCorps #Sahel #Geopolitics

In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline's Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst Alexander Lord to examine the political tensions emerging inside Ukraine as the war continues.

The discussion explores former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s call for wartime elections, the political fallout from his dismissal and the broader debate over how Ukraine should balance democratic accountability with the demands of prolonged conflict. Alexander also outlines the scale of corruption within defence procurement and why allegations involving figures close to President Volodymyr Zelensky could become increasingly difficult for his government to contain.

With Ukraine approaching another critical stage of the war, the episode asks whether political pressure, corruption concerns and questions over elections could begin to affect the country’s ability to maintain unity and sustain its war effort.

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A drone carrying explosives penetrated security at Leipzig Halle Airport in Germany and struck a Ukrainian-owned Antonov aircraft. Its detonator failed, potentially preventing civilian casualties.

In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Sibylline analyst Caspar von der Schulenburg joins Samuel McVicar to examine the incident and what it could signal about the evolution of Russian grey zone tactics in Europe. The discussion explores the drone's sophistication, weaknesses in current counter-drone defences, and the broader implications for European security. If deliberate attacks against targets in NATO territory become more common, governments and businesses may need to rethink how they protect critical infrastructure and civilian sites.

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#Russia #Ukraine #NATO #Germany #Drones #Security #Geopolitics