In this week’s Senedd Sources, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan and Craig Lawton unpack the Caerphilly by-election fallout, the rise (and stall) of Reform UK in Wales, and the quiet competence of Plaid Cymru’s ground game.

They also look ahead to Wales’ long-delayed Investment Summit, asking whether it will deliver real inward investment or just more political headlines. With First Minister Eluned Morgan under pressure and Rebecca Evans standing down, how stable is Welsh Labour’s economic strategy heading into next year’s Senedd elections?

From Rachel Reeves’ “party of business” pivot to the Tories’ identity crisis and the endless debate over “growth you can feel in your pocket”, this is a lively, insider-led look at what’s really happening in Welsh politics.

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The Caerphilly by-election has shaken Welsh politics to its core. In this Senedd Sources flash reaction episode, Calum Macdonald, Jo Kiernan and Craig Lawton unpack a dramatic night for Welsh democracy.

👉 Plaid Cymru has claimed victory with 47% of the vote — the party’s first win in Caerphilly for 100 years — while Labour crashed to third, and Reform UK surged into second with 36%. What does this mean for Keir Starmer’s Labour, for Nigel Farage’s Reform movement, and for Welsh politics ahead of the 2026 Senedd election?

In this episode:

• Why turnout hit a record 50% — and what it tells us about voter anger
• How tactical voting shaped the result
• Why Reform’s rise could reshape the Senedd in 2026
• Whether Plaid Cymru can hold together its new coalition of voters
• What Labour must do to recover before May 2026

📺 Subscribe to Senedd Sources on YouTube for sharp, insider analysis of Welsh politics — from the Caerphilly by-election to the road to 2026.

🎧 Also listen on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

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In this episode of Senedd Sources, Ollie Cole, Jo Kiernan and Craig Lawton are joined by Cathy Owens (Cavendish Consulting), who shares exclusive new YouGov polling on Welsh attitudes toward energy, renewables, and climate change.

They explore:

• Why 70% of Welsh voters back onshore renewables like wind and solar
• The disconnect between voters and political parties on climate policy
• How Plaid Cymru, Labour, and the Conservatives are positioning themselves ahead of the 2026 Senedd elections
• Whether Wales risks losing investment because of slow grid upgrades
• The political dangers of talking about net zero vs. talking about jobs and growth

Expect sharp insights on:

• How cost-of-living pressures are changing views on climate action
• The coming clash over pylons, undergrounding, and rural protest movements
• Why Plaid Cymru faces a “horseshoe problem” inside its own base
• What the data says about nuclear power and offshore vs onshore renewables

📞 Send us your thoughts:

WhatsApp: 0333 404 6507 — start your message with Senedd

📧 Email: hello@seneddsources.com

🎧 Listen on Spotify / Apple / Google — or watch full episodes on YouTube.

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