Every parent has drawn a line in the sand and declared war on screen time… until 5:00 PM hits and the iPad comes flying in to remedy a meltdown so you can make dinner. That’s exactly what’s happening with ROAS in retail media. We all agree it’s flawed. We all agree it’s incomplete. And yet, we keep going back on our word and using it as a gold standard.

In this episode, I unpack new research from adtech publication ADOTAT that puts hard numbers behind what many of us already feel: brands don’t trust retail media measurement, but budgets continue to climb anyway. I break down the incentive structures keeping ROAS alive, the uncomfortable truth about incrementality testing, and what top-performing brands are doing differently to escape the trap.

If you’ve ever questioned whether your retail media measurement is actually telling you the truth, this one’s for you.

This episode is sponsored by Mirakl Ads

Timeline

[00:00] – Why ROAS is like screen time for parents: we say we’ll cut back… but we don’t.
[01:00] – Media buyers are frustrated with RMN measurement — so why are budgets still growing?
[02:10] – The collective action problem keeping ROAS firmly in place.
[03:15] – Why CFOs love ROAS (and why incrementality struggles to compete).
[05:30] – In defense of ROAS: when it’s 'good enough' and why incrementality doesn’t always pan out.
[07:10] – What will actually kill ROAS? The brands building their own measurement operating systems.

Links & Resources

• Check out the full Retail Media Research Report from ADOTAT (free for ADOTAT+ subscribers)
• From ‘Fame and Distribution’ to ‘Gaming Attribution’ by Andrew Lipsman
• Read my related articles:
  • The Retail Media Buffet Has Gotten A Lot Less Enticing
  • What Big Agencies Believe About Retail Media
  • Should We Really Care What Consumers Think About Retail Media Ads?
• Join me and Jordan Witmer from Salt XC at 11am ET Friday Feb 27, for our next LinkedIn Live on When RMNs Come Calling for Your Brand Marketing Budget. We'll be answering questions LIVE -- join us!
• Subscribe to Retail Media Breakfast Club's daily newsletter
• Follow Kiri Masters on LinkedIn

Last week, a viral report predicting an AI-driven economic collapse rattled financial markets. And honestly, I understand why it spread so fast. The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis paints a clean, compelling doom narrative: AI replaces white-collar workers, consumers disappear, and the economy collapses under its own automation. But I think that story is dangerously incomplete.

In this episode, I break down Eric Seufert’s powerful counter-argument outlined in his new podcast series, The Prosperous Society, which showcases the AI bull case for advertising and the digital economy. I share snippets from Part 1: The Primacy of Distribution and add commentary about why AI may be deflationary for production but inflationary for distribution, why advertising isn’t about creating demand but routing it, and what this means for retail media in a world of AI shopping agents.

If you work in retail media, commerce media, ad tech, or digital advertising strategy, this is a POV you need to hear.

This episode is sponsored by Mirakl Ads

Timeline

[00:00] – The viral 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis report and why its AI doomer thesis spread so quickly

[01:00] – Introducing Eric Seufert and his AI bull case for the digital economy

[02:15] – Advertising as demand routing, not demand creation, and why this distinction matters

[04:00] – How targeting shifts the value distribution and drives profitable user economics

[08:02] – AI is deflationary for production but inflationary for distribution

[10:15] – In an agentic commerce world, someone still controls the catalog (and allocation equals advertising)

Links & Resources

• The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis report by Citrini Research
• The Prosperous Society, Part 1: The Primacy of Distribution, by Eric Seufort
• Follow Eric Seufert on LinkedIn
• Read my related articles:
  • While We Debate What's 'Really' Agentic, Retail Media's Foundation Is Already Shifting
  • 'The Biggest Change in My Lifetime' — Marketecture CSO on AI Shopping
  • Dark Search, Broken Signals, and What Comes Next for Retail Media
  • AI Is Claiming Browsing Behavior. Commerce Media Must Compete On Its Data Advantage
  • I Really, Really Hoped That Ads in AI Wouldn't Suck. Now We Find Out.
• Join me and Jordan Witmer from Salt XC at 11am ET Thursday Feb 27, for our next LinkedIn Live on When RMNs Come Calling for Your Brand Marketing Budget. We'll be answering questions LIVE -- join us!
• Atlanta-based retail media professionals: Wednesday, February 25 is the next In-Person Atlanta Happy Hour! RSVP here.
• Subscribe to Retail Media Breakfast Club's daily newsletter
• Follow Kiri Masters on LinkedIn